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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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I worry about the meat shredder / strung out mess scenario.

 

Yeah that would be the concern, but I'm starting to think this one may not.  With no blocking in the north Atlantic and a weak SE ridge, if it wasn't for that high pressure, this may have been a cutter, lol.  Thank god for that high pressure to the north otherwise there really would be nothing stopping this from turning ugly.

 

18z GFS ensembles were pretty wet and a bunch of them got the 1" QPF out into the East Slope.

 

f84.gif

 

 

I will say up here if we get 0.5"< of QPF at like 8 to 12 degrees, its going to be some freakin' dry snow, lol. 

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Just noticed the Weather Channel's map increased us in the north country to 8-12"... I'm not sure I'd buy into that yet way up here and across all of upstate NY.  This seems excessive.

 

attachicon.gifmap_specnews26_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg

Would love to see that happen but I think 6 inches would be a solid outcome for us in upstate NY.

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Can anyone help me interpret this?

 

Google "how to read a weather sounding"

 

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=16235

 

(I never knew there was a westernusawx forum, lol)

 

But that sounding you posted is just awesome...deep area of saturation in the snow growth zone...and saturated all the way to 350mb is impressive.

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Google "how to read a weather sounding"

 

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=16235

 

(I never knew there was a westernusawx forum, lol)

 

But that sounding you posted is just awesome...deep area of saturation in the snow growth zone...and saturated all the way to 350mb is impressive.

So the saturation is represented by the dew point being in line with the temperature?

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Where I can tell on this what the snow growth will be like?

 

The snow growth zone is -12C to -18C...so say -10C to -20C for ease of reading it.  Notice how deep (the vertical depth) that the temperature/dewpoint stay within that level.  I'd have to assume the best lift is probably around like H7 or H6, but notice how favorable the temperatures are between H8 and H6, which seems to be usually where the best lift is in these WAA situations.

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The snow growth zone is -12C to -18C...so say -10C to -20C for ease of reading it.  Notice how deep (the vertical depth) that the temperature/dewpoint stay within that level.  I'd have to assume the best lift is probably around like H7 or H6, but notice how favorable the temperatures are between H8 and H6, which seems to be usually where the best lift is in these WAA situations.

 

 

Correct.  When they are the same, its 100% RH.

Cool - thx for the explanantions

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Red line is temp, dashed line is DP. Horizontal tan lines are isotherms corresponding to temp in C on the bottom of the sounding. Saturated up to 350mb.

What is the time frame or does that not matter?  It just says 54hr GFS, valid 0z but no rage.  Is there a specific moment in time that chart is dealing with?

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