HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 its amazing what being on the east or west of the bay can bring you. even being a few miles away can make a big difference.Being in the middle of the Bay (Jamestown) makes a big difference too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 First and last call for GC: 5-8" 11.9/4 I hope so. I was thinking 6-9" from your area through KFIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Living right by Narragansett Bay, I usually get disappointed by these early/mid December storms. I'm not expecting much from this one either. New to the site, love all the info. Truly great place to learn about our regions wx... Welcome aboard and hopefully you see a 12/21/09 soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Harvey thinking Merrimack Valley might be close to jackpot area. Possibly 12"+Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You might jackpot on this one Has Subdude been around? I would be pretty stoked if I were you Dave... The hills north of ORH look to take this one home, especially up near 1,000ft with a little orographic enhancement on easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/12/winter-storm-this-weekend.html My preliminary forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I would be pretty stoked if I were you Dave... The hills north of ORH look to take this one home, especially up near 1,000ft with a little orographic enhancement on easterly flow.It is all good here. Early Dec snows are a bonus. Tippy might be in a slightly better spot, or the Andover area folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I worry about the meat shredder / strung out mess scenario. Yeah that would be the concern, but I'm starting to think this one may not. With no blocking in the north Atlantic and a weak SE ridge, if it wasn't for that high pressure, this may have been a cutter, lol. Thank god for that high pressure to the north otherwise there really would be nothing stopping this from turning ugly. 18z GFS ensembles were pretty wet and a bunch of them got the 1" QPF out into the East Slope. I will say up here if we get 0.5"< of QPF at like 8 to 12 degrees, its going to be some freakin' dry snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 anyone else annoyed the wunderground ecmwf maps occasionally double add 3 hr precip? I can't really get a gauge on how much falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just noticed the Weather Channel's map increased us in the north country to 8-12"... I'm not sure I'd buy into that yet way up here and across all of upstate NY. This seems excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just noticed the Weather Channel's map increased us in the north country to 8-12"... I'm not sure I'd buy into that yet way up here and across all of upstate NY. This seems excessive. map_specnews26_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg Would love to see that happen but I think 6 inches would be a solid outcome for us in upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just noticed the Weather Channel's map increased us in the north country to 8-12"... I'm not sure I'd buy into that yet way up here and across all of upstate NY. This seems excessive. map_specnews26_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg Probably a little SE in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Probably a little SE in realityThe mountains will do fine as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me interpret this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Would love to see that happen but I think 6 inches would be a solid outcome for us in upstate NY. Yeah, same up here... I'm still thinking 3-6", maybe 4-8" for up here locally if its fluffy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 anyone else annoyed the wunderground ecmwf maps occasionally double add 3 hr precip? I can't really get a gauge on how much falls.that's a six hour accumulated precip frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me interpret this? heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 that's a six hour accumulated precip frame Ahhh is that what that is? Why does it seem to happen sometimes and not other times? I couldn't really find anything on Wunderground that explained the intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 that's a six hour accumulated precip frame right i know..but why does it jump around like that seemingly randomly lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 heavy heavy snow LOL - thx. trying to google it, but even that is above my head in some cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 heavy heavy snow Where I can tell on this what the snow growth will be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me interpret this? Red line is temp, dashed line is DP. Horizontal tan lines are isotherms corresponding to temp in C on the bottom of the sounding. Saturated up to 350mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me interpret this? Google "how to read a weather sounding" http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=16235 (I never knew there was a westernusawx forum, lol) But that sounding you posted is just awesome...deep area of saturation in the snow growth zone...and saturated all the way to 350mb is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Google "how to read a weather sounding" http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=16235 (I never knew there was a westernusawx forum, lol) But that sounding you posted is just awesome...deep area of saturation in the snow growth zone...and saturated all the way to 350mb is impressive. So the saturation is represented by the dew point being in line with the temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That is a nice looking sounding. KASH could clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where I can tell on this what the snow growth will be like? The snow growth zone is -12C to -18C...so say -10C to -20C for ease of reading it. Notice how deep (the vertical depth) that the temperature/dewpoint stay within that level. I'd have to assume the best lift is probably around like H7 or H6, but notice how favorable the temperatures are between H8 and H6, which seems to be usually where the best lift is in these WAA situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So the saturation is represented by the dew point being in line with the temperature? Correct. When they are the same, its 100% RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Where I can tell on this what the snow growth will be like? https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDEQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wdtb.noaa.gov%2Fcourses%2Fwinterawoc%2Fdocuments%2Fcolor_PDFs%2FIC652.pdf&ei=n2CqUoX2ENHesASt44KYCA&usg=AFQjCNHktvm9OJpFarde0XOV75g0V_JNYg&sig2=50x-2EZWPCd7UAh5r6TOdA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The snow growth zone is -12C to -18C...so say -10C to -20C for ease of reading it. Notice how deep (the vertical depth) that the temperature/dewpoint stay within that level. I'd have to assume the best lift is probably around like H7 or H6, but notice how favorable the temperatures are between H8 and H6, which seems to be usually where the best lift is in these WAA situations. Correct. When they are the same, its 100% RH. Cool - thx for the explanantions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Red line is temp, dashed line is DP. Horizontal tan lines are isotherms corresponding to temp in C on the bottom of the sounding. Saturated up to 350mb. What is the time frame or does that not matter? It just says 54hr GFS, valid 0z but no rage. Is there a specific moment in time that chart is dealing with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.