jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Eastern MA will have to deal with Ocean Effect Snows on Saturday on northeasterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Living right by Narragansett Bay, I usually get disappointed by these early/mid December storms. I'm not expecting much from this one either.New to the site, love all the info. Truly great place to learn about our regions wx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Most guidance has snow into Ct in the morning and up to Mass by afternoon I think we see light snow showers/flurries as early as 1-2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Most guidance has snow into Ct in the morning and up to Mass by afternoon Remember when you said I get annoyed too easily? You worry too much about what others say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Most guidance has snow into Ct in the morning and up to Mass by afternoon I was just commenting on the GEFS. Most members barely tickle extreme SWCT by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hopefully the 00z suite holds or better yet heads SE some. Any more NW and the "front end thump" down here is on the verge of being 1" followed by 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Living right by Narragansett Bay, I usually get disappointed by these early/mid December storms. I'm not expecting much from this one either. New to the site, love all the info. Truly great place to learn about our regions wx... Welcome to the show! As time goes on with this one I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure why the South east and cape people are so bent out of shape, it rains down there at some point for most storms....that's why my folks retired down there and not near powderfreakYou might jackpot on this oneHas Subdude been around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Welcome to the show! As time goes on with this one I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Bristol should get something. But yeah, the Bay taketh away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would hedge toward the Euro/GEM/GFS with the track past ACK. The NAM is already about .5" in coastal NH and ME. Maybe bump that up a bit. Not too terrible IMO. The Euro might be easier to criticize if it had more accessible graphics and was run every 6 hours. So did the Euro. Look at the depiction for h24 last night vs h12 today and where things actually are as we approach 0z. More changes incoming tonight IMO. Not the strong suit of the Euro (energy coming out of the SW) Euro has had its isssues, but the NAM is all over the place. Don't trust it unless it is within 24 hrs out. I know a few other mets said the same. Just totally unreliable sometimes. However, not that we are approaching the onset of the storm, you do start to take it a bit more seriously.....er maybe a tiny bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 What makes me extremely nervous is since the bulk of the accumulations will be occurring from a front end thump, if the frontogenesis, VV's, etc are not as strong as advertised...any chance for widespread 6''+ totals would quickly go down the tube. I guess though it's a great thing we have that Arctic high to the north which will really help with great snowgrowth and ratios but these always make me nervous when going large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I hope the models hold steady because I may be on the higher envelope for NYC and BOS. Just gut and past experience...although mother nature does not care about my gut or past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro has had its isssues, but the NAM is all over the place. Don't trust it unless it is within 24 hrs out. I know a few other mets said the same. Just totally unreliable sometimes. However, not that we are approaching the onset of the storm, you do start to take it a bit more seriously.....er maybe a tiny bit. I used to really love the NAM and it would be the first thing I look at but not anymore. It's use really is just trying to pin down mesoscale aspects and that's about it...which goes with using it within 24 HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I used to really love the NAM and it would be the first thing I look at but not anymore. It's use really is just trying to pin down mesoscale aspects and that's about it...which goes with using it within 24 HR NAM is great for mesoscale stuff. But here is the problem. T+72 hrs out + non-hydrostatic + srn stream disturbance+ nearby gulf stream + convection = model output disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro has had its isssues, but the NAM is all over the place. Don't trust it unless it is within 24 hrs out. I know a few other mets said the same. Just totally unreliable sometimes. However, not that we are approaching the onset of the storm, you do start to take it a bit more seriously.....er maybe a tiny bit. Oh I know, I'm just saying I'm worried about all models at this stage because none are really knocking out of the park even in the short term. The Euro changes inside of 36-48 for places like Missouri were pretty dramatic this run and I'm not sure those changes are really supported in what we've seen today. Again JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh I know, I'm just saying I'm worried about all models at this stage because none are really knocking out of the park even in the short term. The Euro changes inside of 36-48 for places like Missouri were pretty dramatic this run and I'm not sure those changes are really supported in what we've seen today. Again JMHO. Well it certainly wouldn't shock me if this ticked SE at 00z and I am not saying that to be a weenie. We've seen it before. I guess it wouldn't surprise me for a tick NW again too...but that would have to happen if the srn stream kept coming in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh I know, I'm just saying I'm worried about all models at this stage because none are really knocking out of the park even in the short term. The Euro changes inside of 36-48 for places like Missouri were pretty dramatic this run and I'm not sure those changes are really supported in what we've seen today. Again JMHO. I worry about the meat shredder / strung out mess scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Living right by Narragansett Bay, I usually get disappointed by these early/mid December storms. I'm not expecting much from this one either. New to the site, love all the info. Truly great place to learn about our regions wx... Living right by Narragansett Bay, I usually get disappointed by these early/mid December storms. I'm not expecting much from this one either. New to the site, love all the info. Truly great place to learn about our regions wx... I'm expecting 2-3 " Saturday evening, pingers around 2am and light rain/dry slot 37F by the time I get up on Sunday morning w/ a sloppy 1" on the ground... Anything more than that and I'll be pleasantly surprised. The East Bay is always on the wrong side of a coastal front, even if just by a few miles. Narragansett Bay serves no meaningful purpose in any way for snowfall enhancement and is only a detriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bristol should get something. But yeah, the Bay taketh away Yes. It looks like a solid 2-5" for my area. Anything else will be bonus time depending on track and warming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm expecting 2-3 " Saturday evening, pingers around 2am and light rain/dry slot 37F by the time I get up on Sunday morning w/ a sloppy 1" on the ground... Anything more than that and I'll be pleasantly surprised. The East Bay is always on the wrong side of a coastal front, even if just by a few miles. Narragansett Bay serves no meaningful purpose in any way for snowfall enhancement and is only a detriment. 100% agree. We're always missing out on something by a few miles either to the northeast or northwest of our area when it comes to snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I hope the models hold steady because I may be on the higher envelope for NYC and BOS. Just gut and past experience...although mother nature does not care about my gut or past experience.Or your backyard for that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I hope the models hold steady because I may be on the higher envelope for NYC and BOS. Just gut and past experience...although mother nature does not care about my gut or past experience. Yeah I know what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well it certainly wouldn't shock me if this ticked SE at 00z and I am not saying that to be a weenie. We've seen it before. I guess it wouldn't surprise me for a tick NW again too...but that would have to happen if the srn stream kept coming in stronger. Yeah .put me in the tickle SE camp..maybe even several notches..Synoptically the NW track doesn't make sense in progressive flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 First and last call for GC: 5-8" 11.9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 PK has a nice laymen terms write up at WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm expecting 2-3 " Saturday evening, pingers around 2am and light rain/dry slot 37F by the time I get up on Sunday morning w/ a sloppy 1" on the ground... Anything more than that and I'll be pleasantly surprised. The East Bay is always on the wrong side of a coastal front, even if just by a few miles. Narragansett Bay serves no meaningful purpose in any way for snowfall enhancement and is only a detriment. its amazing what being on the east or west of the bay can bring you. even being a few miles away can make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 First and last call for GC: 5-8" 11.9/4 Yup, 5-6" for me 8-9" for you has felt about right since yesterday. If we tickle higher, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 PK has a nice laymen terms write up at WPC. Can you post a link? I need to call him cause he was going to research the Great Mystery of the Rhode Island Snow Hole during the Fujiwawa of March 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can you post a link? I need to call him cause he was going to research the Great Mystery of the Rhode Island Snow Hole during the Fujiwawa of March 2013. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Harvey thinking Merrimack Valley might be close to jackpot area. Possibly 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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