powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MOS snowfall amounts (one of Jerry's tools) from the 18z GFS are showing 8 (8"+) across a huge portion of the interior even including up here at BTV/MVL/MPV...PSF/ORE/FIT/MHT/CON and it has 6 (6-8") for BOS/BVY/BED/LWM (but there may be additional snow afterwards?). NAM MOS is pretty much 8 across the board for Mass and NH sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm going 7-11" for a final call.6-9" final call here. GL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm going 7-11" for a final call. I would agree...was thinking 8-12...but I could bump it to 10-14 if provoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Every storm 20 years ago was said to be 3-6 for BOS bit Leon slapped them silly to double that typically. I think 3-6 is too low. 6+ is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Every storm 20 years ago was said to be 3-6 for BOS bit Leon slapped them silly to double that typically. I think 3-6 is too low. 6+ is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Reasoning: models underestimate cold like this consistently. Strong low level cold is tough especially when it's this fresh. Our fate is hinging on initial WAA may surprise many before the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Your area looks good. Should be decent banding there too. And I don't know how you think the NAM isn't funny. Just think back to the last 24 hrs, and then look at this solution. Sure it has an outside shot of being viable...but the model sucks. I think the NAM might have basically the right idea. It has shifted somewhat, sure, but all guidance has. The surface charts on NCEP can look misleading... especially the low res 850mb 0 line on the 6-hr QPF chart. The mid and upper levels on the NAM haven't changed that much since yesterday. The 12z Euro illustrates my concern for ENY. Steady light snow has trouble getting going on Saturday with the best QPF off to the S and SE. Then the developing coastal mostly misses the area. Overall QPF up here is modest on the Euro. I'm counting on good ratios on Sat... but it doesn't help much with really weak lift. And surface temps in the valley won't be frigid (probably well above the magical 15F), there's usually more dry air than modeled with an arctic high, and the snow growth zone might warm above optimal temps Saturday night... as the best lift moves through. I would go with 15:1 for ALB... much higher in the Dacks and NNE. I like NH and coastal ME right now for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All the Boston mets seem to have a similar snowfall map at this point ... 3-6 inside of 128 including Boston and extending west just south of the MA border and just N of 84 with 5-10" for all areas northwest of that line, and 1-3" for the cape and islands SE of PYM and along the south coast. Overall it seems pretty reasonable. My area to Jerry are probably in a battle zone depending on how the coastal front takes shape. I'm thinking 4-8" currently for this area. Seems very reasonable based on current model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 what really sux about the nam is that its the first man up lol....causing knee jerk reactions. (I wont mention any names that knee jerked it yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 well... THIS is a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think the NAM might have basically the right idea. It has shifted somewhat, sure, but all guidance has. The surface charts on NCEP can look misleading... especially the low res 850mb 0 line on the 6-hr QPF chart. The mid and upper levels on the NAM haven't changed that much since yesterday. The 12z Euro illustrates my concern for ENY. Steady light snow has trouble getting going on Saturday with the best QPF off to the S and SE. Then the developing coastal mostly misses the area. Overall QPF up here is modest on the Euro. I'm counting on good ratios on Sat... but it doesn't help much with really weak lift. And surface temps in the valley won't be frigid (probably well above the magical 15F), there's usually more dry air than modeled with an arctic high, and the snow growth zone might warm above optimal temps Saturday night... as the best lift moves through. I would go with 15:1 for ALB... much higher in the Dacks and NNE. I like NH and coastal ME right now for this one. The NAM misses Maine with QPF..lol. It's junk, not even worth an argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Every storm 20 years ago was said to be 3-6 for BOS bit Leon slapped them silly to double that typically. I think 3-6 is too low. 6+ is my call. Well we've come a long way from the NGM and LFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I do like where the arrow points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well we've come a long way from the NGM and LFM. I miss the NGM very much for QPF and for the exact reason Will stated, it was better at qPF placement in big events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM misses Maine with QPF..lol. It's junk, not even worth an argument. Yeah the thing convectively sprays everything like almost due east once it hits SE SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I miss the NGM very much for QPF and for the exact reason Will stated, it was better at qPF placement in big events The FWC guidance from it was pretty darn good too. Its one of the reasons they kept running the NGM until 2009 when they were originally going to retire it in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM shifted around the H5 features by a decent amount. If you combine that with the fact it is a non-hydrostatic model, consistency is non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well we've come a long way from the NGM and LFM. Use to get the old DiFax on SSB receiver, run twice daily. Now have to wait for the maps. Or follow the model of your liking. Taken the fun out of it! It's cold out. Time to stoke the stove and warm the basement (command central) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I miss the NGM very much for QPF and for the exact reason Will stated, it was better at qPF placement in big events Well it was tremendously coarse...it pretty much only picked up synoptic/QG forcing. As a forecaster you can work with that if you know your mesoscale meteorology for different situations. The only thing I really miss it for is MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I miss the ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS ensembles look in between ACK and BM on my coarse graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 MOS snowfall amounts (one of Jerry's tools) from the 18z GFS are showing 8 (8"+) across a huge portion of the interior even including up here at BTV/MVL/MPV...PSF/ORE/FIT/MHT/CON and it has 6 (6-8") for BOS/BVY/BED/LWM (but there may be additional snow afterwards?). NAM MOS is pretty much 8 across the board for Mass and NH sites. I don't feel this is a point that should be over-looked... MOS is a blend of interpretative algorithms ... sloped toward climo. We know collectively that intense arctic wedges of air with WAA running up normal to the isotherms tends to overproduce. That is a conclusion derived not just from common experience, but by statistical results. Just think circa 2007 ... "SWFE" are almost entirely dependent on busting high. Initially this is WAA but then we see discerned coastal cyclogen coming into greater coherence from the Del Marve to ACK or perhaps the Bowel Movement; we may over-perform in the front on this thing. I dunno if that would translate all way toward you neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM misses Maine with QPF..lol. It's junk, not even worth an argument. I would hedge toward the Euro/GEM/GFS with the track past ACK. The NAM is already about .5" in coastal NH and ME. Maybe bump that up a bit. Not too terrible IMO. The Euro might be easier to criticize if it had more accessible graphics and was run every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM shifted around the H5 features by a decent amount. If you combine that with the fact it is a non-hydrostatic model, consistency is non-existent. So did the Euro. Look at the depiction for h24 last night vs h12 today and where things actually are as we approach 0z. More changes incoming tonight IMO. Not the strong suit of the Euro (energy coming out of the SW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't feel this is a point that should be over-looked... MOS is a blend of interpretative algorithms ... sloped toward climo. We know collectively that intense arctic wedges of air with WAA running up normal to the isotherms tends to overproduce. That is a conclusion derived not just from common experience, but by statistical results. Just think circa 2007 ... "SWFE" are almost entirely dependent on busting high. Initially this is WAA but then we see discerned coastal cyclogen coming into greater coherence from the Del Marve to ACK or perhaps the Bowel Movement; we may over-perform in the front on this thing. I dunno if that would translate all way toward you neck of the woods Yeah probably not, but I was impressed that the GFS MOS had 8+ for every station in VT. Its seeing something in the set-up and past set-ups that it likes up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah probably not, but I was impressed that the GFS MOS had 8+ for every station in VT. Its seeing something in the set-up and past set-ups that it likes up this way. Most sites in NY State too, north of KHPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just noticed that most GEFS members are slow bringing snow in on Saturday. Many hold off until evening and overall they are pretty dry during the day. I know there are differing opinions regarding how quickly snow moves in with WAA into arctic air, but guidance has very gradually slowed precip onset. There are also a handful of members that are pretty wet and warm throughout SNE late Sat night - but also pretty snowy. A few even appear to bring the mix line into NW MA and ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If the 850mb tracks over Cape Cod, MA we warm above 0C for a time Sunday. However if the further southeast solutions verify with the coastal low Cape Cod, MA will be the battle ground and the coastal front will set up from Bourne, MA to Boston, MA and points NNEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just noticed that most GEFS members are slow bringing snow in on Saturday. Many hold off until evening and overall they are pretty dry during the day. I know there are differing opinions regarding how quickly snow moves in with WAA into arctic air, but guidance has very gradually slowed precip onset. There are also a handful of members that are pretty wet and warm throughout SNE late Sat night - but also pretty snowy. A few even appear to bring the mix line into NW MA and ENY. Most guidance has snow into Ct in the morning and up to Mass by afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Strong moisture advection into Southern TX and AR. Southern stream looks to be moving slowly while the polar disturbance near Seattle, WA moves in a little faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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