CoolMike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm in Colombia working. Can someone post a simple weenie map of forecast snowfall for me? Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll tell you who may have a huge game of naked twister.....OceanSt in PWM. Nothing like 15 on the coast of Maine and 35 just offshore by about 2 miles...lol. Maybe Ekster and Legro can play a nice game of grab azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think we'll just see this go back and forth for the next 24-36 hours...seems relatively locked in but the minute details won't be sorted out and as always, these things are essentially a nowcast. The overall appeal of this system seems to stay the same though...its just weather it goes over the Cape over ACK or towards the Benchmark... I know it has big sensible weather changes for some of you guys in SE New England, but its essentially a nowcast. Usually I'd lean SE on these, but with no real blocking and a tendency for a SE ridge so far this young season, it may be able to do a near the Cape track. Either way, this is a widespread snowfall for just about all... can't complain about that. Everyone (except maybe the south shore) should end up with more snow on the ground than they started with and that's all that matters. The interaction of the s/w digging down and the two coming out of the sw....I'm surprised by how much ALL models are moving those features around/speed/intensity. Unusual for the GFS and Euro. Once it does turn the corner and come at us it has to head into brutal cold air. I would still lean east of the tracks we're seeing today but you never know...the cone probably has a left bound somewhere over my head and extends out halfway or so to the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah it's done. 21z should be interesting. Ha! See what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just heard a met say that SNE won't be getting much snow if 18Z GFS verifies? I strongly disagree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll go with 6-10'' here. So hard to achieve double digits in such a fast mover. We've seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 If that NAM solution at 500mb plays out with a v-max strengthening in a negative orientation as it speeds over ISP, there is going to be one helluva frontogenic band or two oriented from roughly HFD-BED. Also, this thing might thunder -- hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice CCB sig on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just heard a met say that SNE won't be getting much snow if 18Z GFS verifies? I strongly disagree with that. Hmm...rhyme with meat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well 6 or more appears well within reach for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If that NAM solution at 500mb plays out with a v-max strengthening in a negative orientation as it speeds over ISP, there is going to be one helluva frontogenic band or two oriented from roughly HFD-BED. Also, this thing might thunder -- hmmm Everyone keeps ripping the NAM but some of the ideas it's had were supported pretty well by the ensembles and later op models as noted by NCEP today in the diag. AT THE SURFACE...ONE LOW WILL TRACK UP TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD...WITH NO OUTLIERS. THE 12Z NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THIS IDEA ACTUALLY HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOLUTIONS THAT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. WHEN VIEWED AGAINST THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE...THE NAM 850 MB SOLUTION MENTIONED IN OUR PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF AN ODDITY...AS ALL MODELS PRODUCE AT LEAST A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AND NO CLEAR REASONING TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER ON THE MESOSCALE...SO A GENERAL BLEND IS RECOMMENDED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll go with 6-10'' here. So hard to achieve double digits in such a fast mover. We've seen this before. Don't forget ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hmm...rhyme with meat? Nelson lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Same person who said we weren't getting more than a few inches for the February Blizzard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Everyone keeps ripping the NAM but some of the ideas it's had were supported pretty well by the ensembles and later op models as noted by NCEP today in the diag. AT THE SURFACE...ONE LOW WILL TRACK UP TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD...WITH NO OUTLIERS. THE 12Z NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THIS IDEA ACTUALLY HAS DECENT SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOLUTIONS THAT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. WHEN VIEWED AGAINST THE FULL 12Z MODEL SUITE...THE NAM 850 MB SOLUTION MENTIONED IN OUR PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF AN ODDITY...AS ALL MODELS PRODUCE AT LEAST A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE ARE NO MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AND NO CLEAR REASONING TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER ON THE MESOSCALE...SO A GENERAL BLEND IS RECOMMENDED The issue with the NAM is what its past two runs have done... the consistency. One run it put the 850mb freezing line into CNE, the next a CCB over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure why the South east and cape people are so bent out of shape, it rains down there at some point for most storms....that's why my folks retired down there and not near powderfreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL NAM. Just LOL. I don't get what was funny about it. Looks plausible. Some mixing issues to the south. Might be a bit too wet overall. Trouble getting snows going on Sat. Coastal impacts primarily SE areas. All the things I'm worried about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How fast this thing is moving will make it really difficult to get far into double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure why the South east and cape people are so bent out of shape, it rains down there at some point for most storms....that's why my folks retired down there and not near powderfreak Huh. Whose bent out of shape from down here? I think most of the whining is coming from some inland peeps who might see a sleet pellet. I'm looking forward to a front end 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How fast this thing is moving will make it really difficult to get far into double digits. "Someone please tell me otherwise" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Just when we thought the NAM was on board lol. smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All the Boston mets seem to have a similar snowfall map at this point ... 3-6 inside of 128 including Boston and extending west just south of the MA border and just N of 84 with 5-10" for all areas northwest of that line, and 1-3" for the cape and islands SE of PYM and along the south coast. Overall it seems pretty reasonable. My area to Jerry are probably in a battle zone depending on how the coastal front takes shape. I'm thinking 4-8" currently for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If people can just accept that this is more of a WAA thump...erase the jackpot fetishes and just enjoy some snow...then sanity may actually dominate. Alas, this is AmericanWx and the notion of this materializing is slim to none. Would be fine if it were really a thump. In recent years, CT and MA got all the thumps while places NW just snizzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 BOX hasn't issued a map yet. Says too uncertain to forecast. I've not seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm going 7-11" for a final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Would be fine if it were really a thump. In recent years, CT and MA got all the thumps while places NW just snizzled. Your area looks good. Should be decent banding there too. And I don't know how you think the NAM isn't funny. Just think back to the last 24 hrs, and then look at this solution. Sure it has an outside shot of being viable...but the model sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't get what was funny about it. Looks plausible. Some mixing issues to the south. Might be a bit too wet overall. Trouble getting snows going on Sat. Coastal impacts primarily SE areas. All the things I'm worried about Looks like it fell victim to some convective processes to which it's supposed to be immune... GGEM Ens have been steady will be interested to see what plays out. I don't buy the heavier snow NAM solution here. 1-3 seems safe, maybe 2-4 if it comes together in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 BOX hasn't issued a map yet. Says too uncertain to forecast. I've not seen that before. their thoughts are up on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll go with 6-10'' here. So hard to achieve double digits in such a fast mover. We've seen this before. I agree Id be more than happy with something in that range too. I think were in a good area but this is still a couple days out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18z btv wrf will have nice weenie look at cf location thru sun am at 1. I wonder after it forms and pushes a bit inland where it hits "the wall" i think it is out around 630-730 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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