CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS goes apesh*t for about 4-5 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can see a few bridge jumpers diving in Se areas..Please don't. it's the GFS lol, better go with the NAM. Much better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dude, NE MA looks good. good to hear, done with the NW trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 even in PVD I was happy with that run. 4-6" before the sleet/rain. take what you can get in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 good to hear, done with the NW trend? Hope so. I think it might be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 18z NAM was not consistent lol RGEM waivered very little at 18z http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 weenie chucking on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think 18z gfs looks fine for boston. I think it would be mostly snow even close to the coast for most of that qpf thump between 1am and 7am. With just better ratio's w of cf in me mass. But im just lookin vaguely. Could be mashed potatoes in essex county early sun am. Pretty straight w-e gradient along or just n of pike to the coast wrt 850's at 12z sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 lol, better go with the NAM. Much better model. Meh...if more than 1-3" falls around the canal based on the runs of the last 2 days I'll be really surprised. Warmth is always underestimated. I have visions of Ray having a freak out as a dry slot rips up the east coast preceded by someone reporting IP on the coast about 3-5 hours early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, mega lift. Even though it's closer, it's not really warmer...the big lift fights the warmth until the DS moves through. Almost unstable in the mid levels. That's a huge thump for NE Mass and most of Mass north of the Pike in general... but man NE of BOS-ORH area just gets crushed. It warms right as the best moisture is finishing up. That's probably a foot or more for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, mega lift. Even though it's closer, it's not really warmer...the big lift fights the warmth until the DS moves through. Almost unstable in the mid levels. I liked the GFS. Thump is the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 RGEM waivered very little at 18z http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif You said NAM...go back and look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, mega lift. Even though it's closer, it's not really warmer...the big lift fights the warmth until the DS moves through. Almost unstable in the mid levels. Huge hit before dry slot, massive WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, mega lift. Even though it's closer, it's not really warmer...the big lift fights the warmth until the DS moves through. Almost unstable in the mid levels. I was just about to post this. I looked at soundings and it's phenomenal through 60 for the coastal plain and then too warm by hr 66 but at that point the dry slot is moving through. so there isn't really much meaningful precip left anyways. Seems like a solid thump with just a bit of rain at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'd like to be home for this one, but I'm going to have to take my 6-8 in ski country. Sunday should be a great powder day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You said NAM...go back and look Neither model is ever consistent. Your sarcasm detector FTL. When it comes to 500mb I'd argue no model save maybe the GGEM/RGEM have been all that consistent with the key features coming across the lower Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Meh...if more than 1-3" falls around the canal based on the runs of the last 2 days I'll be really surprised. Warmth is always underestimated. I have visions of Ray having a freak out as a dry slot rips up the east coast preceded by someone reporting IP on the coast about 3-5 hours early. I think we'll just see this go back and forth for the next 24-36 hours...seems relatively locked in but the minute details won't be sorted out and as always, these things are essentially a nowcast. The overall appeal of this system seems to stay the same though...its just weather it goes over the Cape over ACK or towards the Benchmark... I know it has big sensible weather changes for some of you guys in SE New England, but its essentially a nowcast. Usually I'd lean SE on these, but with no real blocking and a tendency for a SE ridge so far this young season, it may be able to do a near the Cape track. Either way, this is a widespread snowfall for just about all... can't complain about that. Everyone (except maybe the south shore) should end up with more snow on the ground than they started with and that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I liked the GFS. Thump is the word. are you still thinking 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow, mega lift. Even though it's closer, it's not really warmer...the big lift fights the warmth until the DS moves through. Almost unstable in the mid levels. You're not kidding...those 700mb VV's are pretty sick, especially for not having an established 700mb circulation. The GFS has so much isentropic lift though and with such a cold air mass in place, any moisture getting thrown back just explodes into tickling dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 are you still thinking 4-6? I see no reason to change my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm noticing for ORH and TOL on east and north, the models sort of develop a nice blob of lift and QPF as the secondary takes shape. Last nights euro ensemble QPF has a nice 6hr blob of >0.4" in ern MA and RI, but it's pointed north along with the good moisture flux axis. Reminds me of 12/21/08...someone in ne MA could achieve double digits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Reminds me of 12/21/08...someone in ne MA could achieve double digits... If this run is right, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thumper the dumper Yeah...even the NW trending runs don't really affect the overall outcome unless you are looking to jackpot. This will come in as a steady moderate to heavy snow with great snow growth it doesn't take much to significantly reduce visibilities. Looks really good for a lot of us from IJD to BTV and between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll take the GFS... We rip snow then a few hours of +PL. Looks like a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dear God please don't show the 18z RPM on the media. Ryan, I forbid you. Did the 18Z RPM finish? I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll tell you who may have a huge game of naked twister.....OceanSt in PWM. Nothing like 15 on the coast of Maine and 35 just offshore by about 2 miles...lol. Maybe Ekster and Legro can play a nice game of grab azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Reminds me of 12/21/08...someone in ne MA could achieve double digits... Yeah no problem on the 18z GFS... probably could put up 10-14" on that run verbatim in Middlesex/Essex Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 An explosion of tickling dendrites? There be one more day to get this hammered out. Like to be right on the fence (presently) to the tainting because with this Arctic Air entrenched only beautiful things like exploding tickling dendrites will smash down upon the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Did the 18Z RPM finish? I don't see it. Yeah it's done. 21z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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