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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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NAM was run from Messenger's basement.

 

Lock it up!

 

Heh...Tippy just got some movement at his desk....certainly looks suspicious in that it distorts the low eastward under convection.

 

NAM was faster right away with the 500mb structure..... like I said the Euro adjusted significantly for it inside of 24-48 hours even out by MO....so...red flags abound for the time being IMO.

 

1-3" here seems like a safe bet.

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The funny thing is the NAM looked like a pretty big hit around 48-54h and then it decided to go convective nuke on us and run the stretch play due east...so instead it gave a small death band to far SE MA.

 

Will 10 to 1 that's the crux of the models bouncing like they have been.

 

Let's see what the Goofus does.  Like I said I thought the jump inside of 24 hours with the Euro and a few others was surprising at 500.  The NAM undoes that change and moves everything out pretty fast through the TN Valley.

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