SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z BTV WRF has teens NW of 128 at 3pm sat.....shows CF starting to set up from SE coastal NH down toward extreme E Essex over Extreme coastal E mass i.e lynn Somerville bos but still mid 20's there. 30f from Marshfield to Plymouth and outer cape. So north shore away from the water would be in a nice position if that were to come to fruition. Honestly I'm feeling good on 6" so long as there aren't any big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Another event where the early start time has to be watched...look at the 500mb disturbance on the 12Z GFS at 18Z Saturday roughly centered over Cincy, you have a 1038b high over Quebec yet the closest snow is to SNE is over BGM/AVP? Not buying it, again it probably will be snowing at least 3-5 hours before most guidance shows right now, just went back and looked at prior event and PHL was not pegged to start snowing til 03Z on almost all the models 48 hours out, even if you take the megaband out of the equation it was still going to be snowing there by 17-18Z I'm always amazed by this...I'm only a second year met student and just off pure observation (not really science) on storms like this I always tell my family to expect snow 3+ hours before the tv news tells them too. It usually works out. On the flip side I could see most meaningful snow being over by 6z or 9z in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Makes sense. I was thinking more OKX/BOX...maybe ALB...I figure for GYX I will wake up to them tomorrow. Thanks for the response. With all the stations on tv having snow maps out already for 24 hours I sometimes forget it's still 48hrs out. The SNE WFOs probably could go with headlines at this range, but we still have some questions that could pop up regarding thermal profiles. This could throw a wrench into a forecast. It's much easier to ramp up one shift later, than back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have found that Albany tends not to downslope when we have a deep dome of arctic air that "protects us" from the shadow effect. When their is deep arctic air we tend to do as well as the surrounding higher elevations. Awesome. That would be good news. I can't remember that last good storm around here that had arctic air preceding. Maybe V-day 2007? Last year in December there was a pretty cold storm. I was out of town a few years in between so can't speak from experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks! I do feel welcome here. Since the regionalized you went MIA. Missed you. Thinking now is up them totals, except for immediate S and E coastal locations - status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro ensembles track the sfc over ACK. Splitting hairs here but the OP Euro looks like it tracked over MVY and out over the elbow per the Wunderground images? So would this be just slightly SE 10-15mi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The SNE WFOs probably could go with headlines at this range, but we still have some questions that could pop up regarding thermal profiles. This could throw a wrench into a forecast. It's much easier to ramp up one shift later, than back off. Agreed. There's enough "hype" with this storm anyway. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Agreed. There's enough "hype" with this storm anyway. Ugh. First widespread one of the season, this always happens. Though it's becoming more and more common that every storm out in the future is always the "next big one." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Another event where the early start time has to be watched...look at the 500mb disturbance on the 12Z GFS at 18Z Saturday roughly centered over Cincy, you have a 1038b high over Quebec yet the closest snow is to SNE is over BGM/AVP? Not buying it, again it probably will be snowing at least 3-5 hours before most guidance shows right now, just went back and looked at prior event and PHL was not pegged to start snowing til 03Z on almost all the models 48 hours out, even if you take the megaband out of the equation it was still going to be snowing there by 17-18Z The old MEkster Inc SWFE T-shirt saying we came up with: "The snow starts sooner, but so does the sleet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WPC probs for Sat-Sun seem a little low. Uncertainty issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WPC probs for Sat-Sun seem a little low. Uncertainty issues? I think it has to do with the fact that those end 12z Sunday and a good chunk of the snow in CNE/NNE they are forecasting to be after 12z Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All in all a good event. Thumpity thump thump Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think it has to do with the fact that those end 12z Sunday and a good chunk of the snow in CNE/NNE they are forecasting to be after 12z Sunday? Makes sense, hadn't thought of that. I feel like TWC is going a little wonky on the snow fcst... Huge area of 8-12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm noticing for ORH and TOL on east and north, the models sort of develop a nice blob of lift and QPF as the secondary takes shape. Last nights euro ensemble QPF has a nice 6hr blob of >0.4" in ern MA and RI, but it's pointed north along with the good moisture flux axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All in all a good event. Thumpity thump thump Sat night. First nice mod region wide event to kick off Met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First nice mod region wide event to kick off Met winter absolutely. this winter is stepping down in a classic fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 15z SREF's look good...esp for E NH/ W ME...a few frames after this there are widespread 40% 8+ probs in S ME and even some 20% probs for 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NWS Boston @NWSBoston 1m A low-end nor'easter will impact southern New England this weekend. pic.twitter.com/3mys6P6RQ1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 15z SREF's look good...esp for E NH/ W ME...a few frames after this there are widespread 40% 8+ probs in S ME and even some 20% probs for 12+. Still way too warm and north..NAM based but getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 15z SREF's look good...esp for E NH/ W ME...a few frames after this there are widespread 40% 8+ probs in S ME and even some 20% probs for 12+. Yes please lol. Any prob for 8+ and 12+ is great to see...I know it is low but you never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 gosh do I love my brand new zone forecast. GYX going with .5-.8 qpf and at least 18:1 ratios .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 1 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THEEVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS12 BELOW..SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOWLIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHSAROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWSAROUND 11. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 BELOW..SUNDAY...SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The QPF Queens are going to love the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still way too warm and north..NAM based but getting better Thats 00z to 12z though...if you look at 18z to 18z there's much better 1" and 4'" probs for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not liking the way this is trending for BOS. Hopefully it's done trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The QPF Queens are going to love the 18z NAM. haha, love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not liking the way this is trending for BOS. Hopefully it's done trending NW. It will be fine. It's not always east to get all snow in mid Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL, Will. The Prince's of Precipitable Water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The QPF Queens are going to love the 18z NAM. I beg your pardon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL NAM. Just LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM was run from Messenger's basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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