December 14/15 winter storm threat

[SnowMan]

Certainly plausible but right now it's not really sold on the exact track of the sfc low and given how there is still room for this to slide back further SE I didn't want to bite on anything higher up there...yet.  Typically I would also wait until 0z tonight or 12z tomorrow to make a map but I have a Chem II final tomorrow then Wolf Pack game so I should be spending my time studying...I can't wait to be done with Chem II

Not saying it was bad - you certainly understand all the details better than I do.  My comment was based on what Ryan had mentioned earlier and other posts made as well.

[powderfreak]

I think it includes a tenth or two from lake enhanced snow showers up north. But you're right, that would still be well below 1". It looks more like a hi res version of the GFS, which would account for terrain and arctic frontal lake enhanced snow preceeding the weekend event.

Yeah and if it's accumulated snow, I wonder if that's depth afterwards...I mean say there's 2-3" on the ground now, may not be too much of a stretch to have near 10" on the ground by Monday if it all breaks right and you include tonight/tomorrow's arctic front snow.

[weatherwiz]

Not saying it was bad - you certainly understand all the details better than I do.  My comment was based on what Ryan had mentioned earlier and other posts made as well.

 

If 0z runs look pretty much the same as now, then I would expand the 5-8'' swath further to the north 

[OceanStWx]

The general zones looks pretty good on that. The mid-level features are going to be good for CNE I think...SNE has the really strong thump potential, but that can be a bit more precarious. The temperatures in this one are going to be on the cold side of the analogs just taking a quick look at the actual analog dates....so I would lean a bit more enthusiastic for SNE

 

A lot of the analogs are definitely warmer December events. Even the top analog (from January) doesn't have the same magnitude of lower level cold air.

 

[ctsnowstorm628]

These guys must've never learned about shadowing...

NEK is gonna shadow like a mofo. I'd say half the qpf/snow vs. BTV possibly. 6-8" BTV, 3-5" NEK probably. ESE flow 925-800 is gonna be killer.

[powderfreak]

A little off topic, but almost everyone from outside the area always over forecasts snowfall for ALB. People think it's a snowier place than it really is. But I agree with you that this storm looks like a solid moderate snowfall at this point.

Yeah...depends on the set up though. For the most part the ALB area is more terrain related than most people think...like ALB proper gets 5" with SFC dry air but every hill town in all directions gets 8-10" or something. ALB really excels in a good coastal when deform band is over the area and SFC winds are N-NE and causing added Hudson Valley convergence.

[Tornadomachine]

Current thinking 

 

Obviously have to probably fine tune this once we have a much more clear idea of where the heaviest totals will reside.  While no strong banding signals, there is an impressive burst of really strong VV's which traverse the region which should yield to some impressive rates for a brief period.

 

 

I trust a local over TWC any day.  It really hurts when they've got a weenie map like this one though...

 

 

[CoastalWx]

That was a pretty significant change in the mid levels on the euro. Hpc is still tracking it over the bm.

 

It was, but yesterday my gut was telling me those weak strung out solutions were actually too weak. That's why I was saying something near ACK or in between ACK and the BM. Still feel near ACK is the final outcome.

 

This doesn't always happen, but I'd say 7/10 times...a srn stream system with Gulf origins will track further NW than the models show at like 96 hrs.

[OceanStWx]

A little off topic, but almost everyone from outside the area always over forecasts snowfall for ALB.  People think it's a snowier place than it really is.  But I agree with you that this storm looks like a solid moderate snowfall at this point.

 

I mean ALB proper really downslopes from almost all directions. I just realized the magnitude of this when it comes to Irene rainfall. ALB set their single wettest day at a shade under 5", yet many areas nearby were 10+.

[powderfreak]

NEK is gonna shadow like a mofo. I'd say half the qpf/snow vs. BTV possibly. 6-8" BTV, 3-5" NEK probably. ESE flow 925-800 is gonna be killer.

Yeah but that'll also shadow the western slopes of the Greens and eastern CPV to some extent. We can usually do ok here on the east side of the Spine, but particularly J.Spin's area south and east like MPV is usually golden with long gradual SE upslope culminating at the Spine.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Well yeaterday I did say it could come close to ACK which is still likely IMO. This may be more of a SWFE, or behave like one.

 

The SWFE comparison has crossed my mind as well. The models are usually too quick to flush out the cold in the lower levels. Many of the recent events down here have featured models which flip the coastal areas to rain midway through the event…but the reality is we will hang on to snow/sleet for the bulk of the precip and just end as some drizzle or light rain. Obviously not saying it plays out this way…but I've got no problem expecting frozen precip to hang on a bit longer than modeled near the shoreline with surface temps hovering near freezing as long as precip is coming down at a decent clip.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Still some concerns for ENY and WMA about being between storms.   Best lift initially to the SW and then transferring to the SE.  This has frequently been the case in recent years.

 

Best case: 30 hours of light snow beginning Sat morning, ending midday Sun.  High fluff factor with occasional moderate intensity.  Snowfall 8"+

 

Worse case: initial overrunning underperforms and is eaten by dry air.  Fluff factor not utilized.  Accumulating snow stays to the south and west until evening and quickly slides east.  Coastal tracks too far SE for any impact and everything to the west quickly dries up.  Snowfall 1-3"

I noticed that even into the western half of CT

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks!  I do feel welcome here. 

Your climo is more like our anyways bro.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I would be shocked if we got that warm. We will hit above 32 but this airmass is very strong and I just don't see it budging so easily. It's going to be impressive to see a temp gradient of up to 20F from S-N though.

I would be shocked as well. I think we start between 12-20 degrees when precip begins.. that's a long ways away from 32 with a strong High over place and secondary near the benchmar

[weathafella]

15z Srefs qpf: 0.75+ all of sne and coastal downeast me and lower nh/vt. Including mpm.

1.00+ inside 495 in MA far se ct and all of ri.

[CoastalWx]

The SWFE comparison has crossed my mind as well. The models are usually too quick to flush out the cold in the lower levels. Many of the recent events down here have featured models which flip the coastal areas to rain midway through the event…but the reality is we will hang on to snow/sleet for the bulk of the precip and just end as some drizzle or light rain. Obviously not saying it plays out this way…but I've got no problem expecting frozen precip to hang on a bit longer than modeled near the shoreline with surface temps hovering near freezing as long as precip is coming down at a decent clip.

 

The only reason why I see models doing what they are doing, is because they are bring the warmth in at like 950-925. If that happens then the coast warms dramatically. However, there is still a good ageo push from the north and it may hover near 32 for a while in the heavier precip rates. Probably one of those deals where the temp warms as the dryslot moves through and we lose the lift.  I do think models are way too warm over the interior as usual. The wamrth at 950 will not get past ORH.

[weatherMA]

I'm interested to see how Plymouth does with this storm (obviously, lol). Based off what I've seen there could be a relative jackpot in eastern NH/ western ME along the CF...back here not really sure what to expect...but would think 6" or so is probably likely.  All I know is this storm will be C.O.L.D up here. Probably struggling through the teens even on Sunday. There is a chance we could get below zero up here before the storm on Saturday morning! 850s on the GFS get down to -25C at 850 for a time Friday night with calm/ partially clear conditions ahead of the overrunning saturday....could get darn cold.

 

And beginning of the next week should be cold too...widespread below zero Tuesday morning?

[eduggs]

15z Srefs qpf: 0.75+ all of sne and coastal downeast me and lower nh/vt. Including mpm. 1.00+ inside 495 in MA far se ct and all of ri.

Following the 12z NAM, the mean is definitely wetter everywhere (possibly excluding NNE) and the SLP track is a few mb stronger, and a touch NW of the OP.  Inside the BM.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

NEK is gonna shadow like a mofo. I'd say half the qpf/snow vs. BTV possibly. 6-8" BTV, 3-5" NEK probably. ESE flow 925-800 is gonna be killer.

funny thing is though that the shadowing takes effect very localized. St J might get 3", Lyndonville might get 4.5" but Cabot could get 10" and Burke could 8 or 9". Walden might get a foot!

[weatherMA]

Watches out at 4pm?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Watches out at 4pm?

 

I would think tomorrow AM.

 

15z SREFs are juiced.  24h 1" precip covers all of SE MA.

Thumper.

[OceanStWx]

Watches out at 4pm?

 

We're talking 4th or 5th period, that's still pretty far out there for headlines. Mid shift tonight though? That's fair game.

[N. OF PIKE]

_{12z BTV WRF has teens NW of 128 at 3pm sat.....shows CF starting to set up from SE coastal NH down toward extreme E Essex over Extreme coastal E mass i.e lynn  Somerville bos but still mid 20's there.}

 

_{30f from Marshfield to Plymouth and outer cape.}

[SnowGoose69]

Another event where the early start time has to be watched...look at the 500mb disturbance on the 12Z GFS at 18Z Saturday roughly centered over Cincy, you have a 1038b high over Quebec yet the closest snow is to SNE is over BGM/AVP?  Not buying it, again it probably will be snowing at least 3-5 hours before most guidance shows right now, just went back and looked at prior event and PHL was not pegged to start snowing til 03Z on almost all the models 48 hours out, even if you take the megaband out of the equation it was still going to be snowing there by 17-18Z

[wx2fish]

12z Euro Ens look pretty close to the op. Close to tracking over ACK.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles track the sfc over ACK.

[snowgeek]

I have found that Albany tends not to downslope when we have a deep dome of arctic air that "protects us" from the shadow effect.  When their is deep arctic air we tend to do as well as the surrounding higher elevations.

I mean ALB proper really downslopes from almost all directions. I just realized the magnitude of this when it comes to Irene rainfall. ALB set their single wettest day at a shade under 5", yet many areas nearby were 10+.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah that's the thing folks need to get I their heads. Most of the qpf for the majority will be the snow on the front end. By the time mids warm , rates start to slow drastically.

If they warm at all..which seems like that trend may reverse..Even along the coast this may well tickle back SE and it's wire to wire snow..too much worry about a little sleet in here

[weatherMA]

We're talking 4th or 5th period, that's still pretty far out there for headlines. Mid shift tonight though? That's fair game.

Makes sense. I was thinking more OKX/BOX...maybe ALB...I figure for GYX I will wake up to them tomorrow. Thanks for the response.

 

With all the stations on tv having snow maps out already for 24 hours I sometimes forget it's still 48hrs out.

[eduggs]

I mean ALB proper really downslopes from almost all directions. I just realized the magnitude of this when it comes to Irene rainfall. ALB set their single wettest day at a shade under 5", yet many areas nearby were 10+.

I think the angle of the east coast also hurts.  New England kind of sticks out eastward towards the Gulf Stream.  The natural land-ocean baroclinicity tends to induce coastal lows to form or track south of the Cape.  The climatological prime track for snow (or rain) in ALB is further NW, from near NYC to the Cape or BOS.  Despite being comparatively far NW, ALB is also barely above sea level, so surface temps are warmer than anywhere around. 

 

But like you say, most of ENY does much better than ALB proper and the surrounding HV.