snowman21 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 we'll do ok. Several inches at least and maybe some ice or rain at the end...NYC thread is a suicide watch Not sure what people were expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Its really good. Looks like 0.4-0.5 qpf with great ratios. Nice thanks man. We still have two days, maybe we can tuck it in a bit more but there's obviously going to be a NW limit. Either way, a nice snowy weekend. I've got my expectations set at 4", so anything more would be gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Any clowns to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm not trying to pin you down, but any feelings on timing? I am driving to Warren, Vt with my 4yo daughter Saturday afternoon (have to work in the morning) and I'm loving the "improved" forecast, but not from a driving standpoint... Looks like late afternoon light snow breaks out...heaviest after midnight Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well yeaterday I did say it could come close to ACK which is still likely IMO. This may be more of a SWFE, or behave like one. Which almost always move through a little quicker than modeled. Shouldn't be many complaints come Sunday though. Most will be seeing accumulating snow. NW MA looks good to stay all snow. Keeping expectations low I'm happy w/ anything over 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice thanks man. We still have two days, maybe we can tuck it in a bit more but there's obviously going to be a NW limit. Either way, a nice snowy weekend. I've got my expectations set at 4", so anything more would be gravy. Yep. I think BTV is too conservative in their thinking. Check out WPC's percentile graphics...found these today for the first time. Most of NNE is 6+ in their 75th percentile. FYI 5% is least possible amounts, 95% most possible. 50-75% seems reasonable right now. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=72&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's a big shift for the King at this range. What wasn't much in MO and IL at 60 hours last night is a whole different ballgame today at 12z. Weren't things going to go SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can''t really complain about getting a few inches of snow prior to Christmas I suppose. Just trended the wrong way for us sadly. Euro snow maps give us 4-6 with this run, I'll take that and run anyday. I'm right up by the Merritt, so every mile inland will sure help...might only be 3 inches down at the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not the best but I'll take it. I don't mind it. Still looks like a solid front end, even down here, before mixing. 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Weren't things going to go SE? Of the Cape I still think they do. I wasn't aware the event had already happened, how much snow did you receive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Of the Cape I still think they do. I wasn't aware the event had already happened, how much snow did you receive? LOL...you were saying the models would continue to trend SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro snow maps give us 4-6 with this run, I'll take that and run anyday. I'm right up by the Merritt, so every mile inland will sure help...might only be 3 inches down at the beach I'm right down by the post road so I don't have the fortune of being a few miles inland. 4-6 sounds great but I have my doubts, 2-4 sounds like a safe call for now, unless if we can get some models trend weaker with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Can''t really complain about getting a few inches of snow prior to Christmas I suppose. Just trended the wrong way for us sadly. I actually think it's trended much better for you in fairfield.. never was looking like more than a few inches at the sw ct shore.. now i think 4-6" down there is a really good bet.. even the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Bless this Arctic high or otherwise we would be looking at a whole lot of meh yes lets look for that Arctic High to not back down next 48 hours and scoot a bit earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Way NW As often happens, the 6-7 day representation gets lost for a bit and then comes back as the event gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I actually think it's trended much better for you in fairfield.. never was looking like more than a few inches at the sw ct shore.. now i think 4-6" down there is a really good bet.. even the city.. wow! on second thought.. looking at the gfs extractions.. the surface torches quick for the shore. 26 at onset of precip for BDR. by 18z its 31 degrees after .24" QPF. but by 00z sunday its already 42 degrees? Have a hard time believing it gets that warm that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very odd. Even well inland to oxford waterbury GFS has surface temps of 35/36 during peak of storm with 850s below zero. 24 degrees up 11 degrees to 35 from 18z to 00z.. Only 3-5" during the light stuff. then plain rain. BDL barely stays at freezing throughout the event with mostly snow then some sleet.. amazing temperature gradient over CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL...you were saying the models would continue to trend SE... And 45 minutes ago you were asking if it was too far NW this run. Make up your mind. I think it goes SE of the Cape, I don't care if the next run shows it over Albany. If I'm wrong on that there will be a lot of others including your local NWS office too that talked about it being out at the BM just a few hours ago. 12 hours ago it had me at -2 or -4 at 8h at 12z Sunday. Now it's +8 to 10 C at the same time. This run may be right, but I'll stick with the train of thought GYX and others had for another run. It's a weak low slamming into brutally cold air. We'll see how it goes. If this is the trend...well there may be a lot more unhappy people around SNE come Sunday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Arent euros thermal profiles usually 2-3 degrees too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 we'll do ok. Several inches at least and maybe some ice or rain at the end...NYC thread is a suicide watch NYC thread should be euthanized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very odd. Even well inland to oxford waterbury GFS has surface temps of 35/36 during peak of storm with 850s below zero. 24 degrees up 11 degrees to 35 from 18z to 00z.. Only 3-5" during the light stuff. then plain rain. BDL barely stays at freezing throughout the event with mostly snow then some sleet.. amazing temperature gradient over CT. The resolution of the gfs is generally too coarse to handle boundary layer temps in these storms. I generally toss them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC thread should be euthanized. As if people down in our region actually expect a SECS/MECS out of a system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And 45 minutes ago you were asking if it was too far NW this run. Make up your mind. I think it goes SE of the Cape, I don't care if the next run shows it over Albany. 12 hours ago it had me at -2 or -4 at 8h at 12z Sunday. Now it's +8 to 10 C at the same time. This run may be right, but I'll stick with the train of thought GYX and others had for another run. It's a weak low slamming into brutally cold air. We'll see how it goes. I wasn't worried about it being too far NW for me. I am in a great spot. It was just a general question with how much it had jumped... Hope things work out for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Arent euros thermal profiles usually 2-3 degrees too warm? I don't think they look all that bad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC thread should be euthanized. Ed, you're welcome in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Any clowns to post? I'll bite NAM: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even euro gets 925-950 pretty mild to the pike and NWof I-84 briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll bite NAM: GFS: Must be biting on ratios because those look a lot better for this area and southern Quebec into upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even euro gets 925-950 pretty mild to the pike and NWof I-84 briefly. Yup looks that say. Still a lot of snow pre pingers or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll bite NAM: GFS: Must be biting on ratios because those look a lot better for this area and southern Quebec into upstate NY. Lol...kuchera standard 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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