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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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Really fast too... Most of the accumulating snow is done here in CT before daybreak and E Mass by 7 a.m.

 

What makes me nervous about going widespread 6''+ is certainly the speed and the fact that you're likely going to have to rely on a 3-4 hour period for very heavy snowfall rates with higher ratios.  While we may see the onset of light snows as early as early Sat PM, the bulk of this system is going to occur in a 3-4 hour timeframe but in that timeframe it could really, really rip.  I'm sure though some folks will probably pull out some 8-9'' totals.  

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What makes me nervous about going widespread 6''+ is certainly the speed and the fact that you're likely going to have to rely on a 3-4 hour period for very heavy snowfall rates with higher ratios.  While we may see the onset of light snows as early as early Sat PM, the bulk of this system is going to occur in a 3-4 hour timeframe but in that timeframe it could really, really rip.  I'm sure though some folks will probably pull out some 8-9'' totals.  

 

Yeah pretty typical looking storm without phasing where the southern stream energy runs up against the Arctic high. 

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A nicer way of saying AWT

 

 

Well if anyone read when the 00z was coming out last night, I said this looks like it would be closer to the coast based on 5H....so I was strongly thinking that we would see this come NW...the upper levels argued for it.

 

For those who were fixated on computer interpolations of QPF output, it generally doesn't register. Think synoptics. This will be a pretty good system for many. The high is in an awesome spot...it has BOS in the teens on Saturday evening. Frigid airmass was some SE gulf moisture juice makes for a bit of fun for most of the region.

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Well if anyone read when the 00z was coming out last night, I said this looks like it would be closer to the coast based on 5H....so I was strongly thinking that we would see this come NW...the upper levels argued for it.

 

For those who were fixated on computer interpolations of QPF output, it generally doesn't register. Think synoptics. This will be a pretty good system for many. The high is in an awesome spot...it has BOS in the teens on Saturday evening. Frigid airmass was some SE gulf moisture juice makes for a bit of fun for most of the region.

 

You did, As i checked in around 4 am this morning

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The GFS keeps the northern stream and southern stream separated (non-phased) the entire duration, even as the system moves off to the north and east, but it looks like though the Euro actually tries to get some phasing going on and then eventually does phase right near the Gulf of Maine or so.  

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