Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 when the gfs 0z panel shows .00 precip N of MA/NH border that means there is nada in even North central Mass from 1pm to 7pm. They are north of you....you stop snowing a few hours before them....so yes...this post was off.When it's still snowing we'll revisit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They also close off 850 just south of SNE. I ain't mad at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure if the surface temps are as cold as they were showing earlier. But, I'm thinking it might stay in the teens today (actually, I was at 21 at midnight, damn it). Just went out to get wood for the stoves--man it's chilly and breezy. Getting some snow in when it's like this would be pretty fun. 18.5/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I must say off the top of my head I like B'irving's location for this....(10 miles W of MHT) at 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like ensembles maybe just inside the BM. That's pretty much holding course, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Some of the comments are what lolz are made of. Great to see this kind of action 2 less than 2 weeks into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I actually think between 03z and 09z it could really snow hard in many areas. Strong WAA. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 When it's still snowing we'll revisit You may be right about when it stops but Pickles' point was the GFS does not show it, which is also correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I actually think between 03z and 09z it could really snow hard in many areas. Strong WAA. Isentropic lift FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 im sorry but I do not agree. I could actually see it snowing into Sunday evening as the ULL moves across That's fine that you think that... but that's not what the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Haha, I love this forum, so entertaining Without Kevin, it would be far less enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Isentropic lift FTW Yes. I like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FYI - here's my thinking right now for snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FYI - here's my thinking right now for snowfall totals. No love for the southeast corner folks. Sounds reasonable to me at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You may be right about when it stops but Pickles' point was the GFS does not show it, which is also correct.Yes I believe a few fine folks were not following along with us. Looks like a snowstorm from border to border in New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How come Tolland isn't on that list? No possible way to verify given the propensity for slantsticking! Hopefully many of us see a good 6". This will be a case where board clearing should help add an inch or so onto totals I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Why isn't there any 12+ on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No possible way to verify given the propensity for slantsticking! Hopefully many of us see a good 6". This will be a case where board clearing should help add an inch or so onto totals I think. I like my location right now. Have to see what the euro says. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No possible way to verify given the propensity for slantsticking! Hopefully many of us see a good 6". This will be a case where board clearing should help add an inch or so onto totals I think. if ever there was a case, this is a great example. Accums of 10" with 7" show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Why isn't there any 12+ on there? Don't think it's really likely for anyone in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Why isn't there any 12+ on there? Chance is negligible. I'd put it at under 5% right now for CT. Maybe somewhere up on the seacoast of NH or something could get some enhancement and have a slightly higher shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Chance is negligible. I'd put it at under 5% right now for CT. Maybe somewhere up on the seacoast of NH or something could get some enhancement and have a slightly higher shot. Hard to do it with a thump of warm advection snows. I never really forecast double digits unless you're looking at a solid mid level low and can crank some frontogenesis/deformation in the comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 if ever there was a case, this is a great example. Accums of 10" with 7" show for it. I like to just go measure the board, measure a bunch of spots in the yard and average them all, usually within 1/2 of all official stations near me but always .25 less than Cold Miser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Don't think it's really likely for anyone in CT. The NAM and GFS soundings support a lot of freezing drizzle in NCT after the main thump, that I think might be a bigger problem than currently talked about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM and GFS soundings support a lot of freezing drizzle in NCT after the main thump, that I think might be a bigger problem than currently talked about. Models tend to overdo that though on NW winds as the low winds up. It's really tough to get FZDZ in here on NW winds... generally dry out enough to prevent it from becoming an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 what is the current thinking for ski area in the northern whites and greens? Will the precip shield come up this way enough or do we need to depend upon upslope enhancement as the storm departs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is there wind behind this System on Sunday as we clear out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Models tend to overdo that though on NW winds as the low winds up. It's really tough to get FZDZ in here on NW winds... generally dry out enough to prevent it from becoming an issue. the winds are ene then ne during the period in question though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the winds are ene then ne during the period in question though With a low pressure in that location winds will certainly not be out of the east or northeast near the surface in CT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Need more posts like this. Features that determine what ultimately verifies. To some maybe already learned and reinforced. John (Tip) sniffin this out a week before hand. Kudo's Curious as to what John is thinking now? Might be already covered but I'll say this again and again. We are probably one of the best regions to be covered by so many knowledgeable Mets and amateurs. The signal for this system did mute some over the last 4 days. The PNA's rise evolved a little less obvious. The PNA domain is huge, though. Small changes therein ...probably mean less to details in the flow. However, in this case, seeing somewhat less meridian flow, and flatter faster less phased stream interaction, became supported. That all said, there is still a signal there; it's just not as obvious. A light to moderate event (by local standards for sensible impact) is acceptable. But there is another aspect here. The S/W that becomes the southern stream impulse is between the GOA and the west-coast. People like to argue that data-assimilation is no longer a modeling concern for the input grids, but ... until NCEP completely signs off on that, I am willing to give a nod to systems having some uncertainty when passing through some known regions of the Pacific. NCEP has not signed off on that, and routinely they mention assimilation/sparesness concerns. That said, it should be moving into a denser sounding domain over the next 24 hours; it probably won't matter, but we have seen systems beef back up, or down, when that relay off the Pac takes place. I will say, there is a kind of annoyance about pulling systems out of the ether some days ahead in that the hurry-up-and-wait affect kicks in, and it becomes a thumb twiddle. Then for those that get emotively invested, the time-track that leads up to the event becomes a roller-coaster ride as each successive model run ups this or downs that. I try to stay clear of that. I would be a liar if I said I did not care weather there were snow for Christmas, because I was raised in a northern latitude and it is endemic to my upbringing (enough so to have a foundation in sentiment). But I won't allow it to affect my mood, just the same. I digress... I do think it is odd that a weaker system is placed farther NW. The NAM is likely biased on that 00z POS run... But then the UKMET comes in NW, huh... weird. One would think that a flatter progressive system with a antecedent slab of molasses air setting into the region would make those NW solution full of crap. We'll see. Plus, though the S-stream is hard to identify, what's left of the v-max still goes over or a hair SE of SNE, so I don't see putting a 700mb circulation NW of that track. Now watch ... some narrow band get S++ thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.