CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS does furnace us at 900mb... was a little surprised to see that given how the synoptics look. Probably too warm if it tracks like that, but we may dryslot before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 . Thanks Scott One more question one the comment that Ray bolded and you typed earlier regarding the parent low being west and less deepening ....are you saying that would lead to a different orientation/angle of CF...and also less N'rly AGEO flow Need more posts like this. Features that determine what ultimately verifies. To some maybe already learned and reinforced. John (Tip) sniffin this out a week before hand. Kudo's Curious as to what John is thinking now? Might be already covered but I'll say this again and again. We are probably one of the best regions to be covered by so many knowledgeable Mets and amateurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 1st guess https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=618396041540991&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater some guy gave him crap cause he called a "guess" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Probably too warm if it tracks like that, but we may dryslot before dawn. I agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 this storm doesn't seem as run of the mill to me as it did at first glance I'm thinking a bit more surprises , ......parent low more NW/stronger longer (mid levels)....secondary deepening (AGEO flow) ....do mid levels close of near BOS? High pressure less or more favorable locations...I think throwing accums out right now is low confidence.....unless you are say the interior route 2 corridor where mid level warming will be less either way and CF won't factor in ....seems 4-8 is good from MPM-to Chris to a few goats near Athol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS does furnace us at 900mb... was a little surprised to see that given how the synoptics look. Why are you surprised the GFS thermals are screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS lingers snows all day Sunday too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah I think many have felt this way. Definitely still feel like near ACK is as NW as this can possibly go with the bm being the SE limit. The cold air in place will limit the NW shifts unless the high comes in weaker or is displaced on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 . Thanks Scott One more question one the comment that Ray bolded and you typed earlier regarding the parent low being west and less deepening ....are you saying that would lead to a different orientation/angle of CF...and also less N'rly AGEO flow Yes it may cause the front to move a bit further west than if a rapidly deeping secondary low were to take the same track. Today's runs had modest deeping near ACK which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should be a fun storm. The greedy interior and NNE folks can step back away from any sharp objects and bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Why are you surprised the GFS thermals are screwy. Because they normally struggle with cold in the lower boundary layer - but the warmth at 900mb was a bit surprising. Something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS lingers snows all day Sunday too That's 100% inaccurate. Thanks for posting your GFS fantasy though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's 100% inaccurate. Thanks for posting your GFS fantasy though!it doesn't stop snowing until late in the day., albeit light. This is not your 7 hour storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CSI? instability? Unreal snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That's 100% inaccurate. Thanks for posting your GFS fantasy though! looks like flakes would shut off around 10 am for N ct on GFS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice to see another Franklin Co. poster. Welcome! Indeed it is--welcome! Ukie is pretty far NW, it is almost right over ACK. Yum. Should be a fun storm. The greedy interior and NNE folks can step back away from any sharp objects and bridges. LOL--not greedy. Just a little unstable. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Dec_26-27_2012/Dec_26-27_2012_BOXPNS.txt I like the report I have in there. Don't expect that to be matched here, but it may be decent. I'm liking what I see now moreso than the 00z and 06 runs. Let's see what the EC has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This may be a snow to -RA..DZ etc and then a rapid flip to snow grains and -SN when the cstl front drops SE for my hood. Something like a 35 to 22F deal in min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The cold air in place will limit the NW shifts unless the high comes in weaker or is displaced on the models Yeah, its been a huge player from the start. Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I mentioned this last night when I was talking to myself on here given the vort track...I could see this coming NW a bit. Its been the most SE model thus far so I think it will make at least a little bit of a jog NW. Yes you did mention it last night. As it stands now with a mish mosh of all the models I'm hoping to see an inch or two on the front end before a change to rain. Still pretty good for the coast in mid december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah, its been a huge player from the start. Euro will be interesting. Not to hijack this one, But tues could become interesting for the folks north ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CSI? instability? Unreal snow growth There are definitely signals for some convective instability with a MAUL showing up prior to the snow tapering off. I don't see any signs of CSI though. As for snow growth I think it's quite good on Saturday during the day and even through a portion of Saturday evening but it quickly goes downhill as the atmosphere warms and the best omega shifts to around 800mb where the strongest warm advection is occurring. Up north of the Pike it remains better... but down in CT nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 it doesn't stop snowing until late in the day., albeit light. This is not your 7 hour storm lol lol wrong again. Looks like the snow (actually sleet) wraps up on the GFS by about 9 a.m. or so for you. Maybe some freezing drizzle if you're lucky through noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I have not a clue what to expect here in Melrose/wakefield mass except an initial period of snow........it's pretty difficult to get confident in a few runs of the GFS when it is such a out to lunch model on several occasions....euro usually hasn't lock'd in w/ this fast flow to 2 days out so I don't have much confidence in it till tonite at 0z.....thou seems the smart money is betting on this NW from last nites 0z. This storm has me far from locking anything up and I am also looking at trends on wether the initial WWA will be north of NYC and earlier like it look'd yesterday or if it will be a bit later with a more consolidated look ...like today's trends....I guess u lean w today's trends.....and wait for the Euro....but the euro has not even been golden at 60hrs....so really I'm waiting till tonite till getting confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That sounding is Oh ya baby bring it. Need some BUFKIT posts as we get closer. Ryan found the wrench. Now lets get the hammer out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 lol wrong again. Looks like the snow wraps up on the GFS by about 9 a.m. or so for you. Maybe some freezing drizzle if you're lucky through noon.im sorry but I do not agree. I could actually see it snowing into Sunday evening as the ULL moves across Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 im sorry but I do not agree. I could actually see it snowing into Sunday evening as the ULL moves across What you see happening and what the GFS shows are mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like ensembles maybe just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS lingers snows all day Sunday too when the gfs 0z monday panel shows .00 precip N of MA/NH border that means there is nada in even North central Mass from 1pm to 7pm on Sunday. They are north of you....you stop snowing a few hours before them....so yes...this post was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They also close off 850 just south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I actually think between 03z and 09z it could really snow hard in many areas. Strong WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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