HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 When will this be starting in earnest in Western Mass. Nice to see another Franklin Co. poster. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ukie is pretty far NW, it is almost right over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 nice Scott, is there a model attribute that you can look at that will help pinpointing where the CF will park? say some convergence at bla blah .. It's gut, model placement of features like LP and HP, antecedent cold..etc. Like I can look at the GFS and know the CF will not get to 495. Maybe 128 if it's lucky. Just going by my gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 "After all the Jacks are in their boxes." The wind CRIES.... LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wow uncle is juiced! Ukie is usually pretty competent within 72 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 HP pressure placement. Anywhere from branching out from the Great lakes to nrn ME is good. You want a more concise HP center in that area. Rapidly deepening low assures ageostrophic flow from HP to LP and will pin the CF right at the coast. Low track..Track near the BM normally means CF will not make it far inland, but this one may not behave as such due to parent low out west and lack of deepening. Cold antecedent air. Cold air will want to move to warmer air..aka the ocean so that creates an ageostrophic component too. Something for the weak-sauce solution proponents to ponder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Canadian is almost over Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think euro will be closer in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah it's not classic, but it's good enough to keep it mostly snow. Honestly if this low deepened a bit more it would probably be even better. Just because the low comes closer does not necessarily mean the low levels warm. A bombing low near Chatham can keep BOS in the 20s...aka Boxing Day 2010. So there is a variety that goes into how low level cold stays. SSTs clearly matter too and so does the flow just above the surface like at 950mb. Usually I like to see those winds more E and NE to help keep the layer above us just cold enough. That layer looks to warm up a bit which may cause a brief taint. I still think the GFS is too warm overall. I mean look how close the NAM came and that was colder. Mesoscale models resolve those features a bit better. I think 12z guidance thus far has come in a little stronger but as you said, they are also still cold. Win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Does strengthening mean more ack and less bm track and, hence, more taint in Ct? Looks like pingers make a run for us on the GFS but we'd probably stay 90-95 percent snow. A bit more sleet down toward HVN. I'm thinking a 4-8 kinda deal inland with 3-6 at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Those further NW solutions are a bit stronger...IE ageo flow is stronger..so give and take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Canadian is almost over Chatham. Nice to see GFS and GGEM try to crank a mid level low off NE Mass... that probably helps the 495 corridor in Middlesex Co Mass up through the NH Seacoast and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I like the way today is going so far, some nice trends! Going to be a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think euro will be closer in today. I mentioned this last night when I was talking to myself on here given the vort track...I could see this coming NW a bit. Its been the most SE model thus far so I think it will make at least a little bit of a jog NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I still think PVD/TAN/BOS do okay maybe not the jackpot but more than some of the mass media outlets are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ukie is pretty far NW, it is almost right over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ukie would taint a lot of us, but not until a good front end thumo occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like pingers make a run for us on the GFS but we'd probably stay 90-95 percent snow. A bit more sleet down toward HVN. I'm thinking a 4-8 kinda deal inland with 3-6 at the coast. Nice.. Because of the long duration moderate accumulation expected, would you anticipate WSWs might be tough to justify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 . Thanks Scott One more question one the comment that Ray bolded and you typed earlier regarding the parent low being west and less deepening ....are you saying that would lead to a different orientation/angle of CF...and also less N'rly AGEO flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could be the biggest December snow fall for W MA in the past few years. (Dec 2007?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Pickles if you want a good high, the Canadian is a better position. Look how it holds its ground north of ME even with that track. That would really pin the CF near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should be a fun storm. The greedy interior and NNE folks can step back away from any sharp objects and bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could be the biggest December snow fall for W MA in the past few years. (Dec 2007?) Hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 These things always like to speed up too. Since we're not talking about a phase I wouldn't be surprised if we really rushed the good stuff in and out of here. I like the solid front end thump look. Should be fun even down to the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 1st guess https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=618396041540991&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should be a fun storm. The greedy interior and NNE folks can step back away from any sharp objects and bridges. I just like it looks to include everyone at this point. Everyone should come out of this with snow on the ground. Still over 2 days away though. Feel like we've been watching this for a long time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could be the biggest December snow fall for W MA in the past few years. (Dec 2007?) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/pnsevents/Dec_26-27_2012/Dec_26-27_2012_BOXPNS.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GFS does furnace us at 900mb... was a little surprised to see that given how the synoptics look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Pickles if you want a good high, the Canadian is a better position. Look how it holds its ground north of ME even with that track. That would really pin the CF near the coast. well a lot of us def do! I'm gonna be lookin at the 2m temps on BTV WRF runs as it gets into it's time frame w this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaCaChAu Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice to see another Franklin Co. poster. Welcome! Hiya. Been here for awhile but mostly I observe as I trust these discussions more than any other weather forecasts. (once you remove the outliers ). My boss has a show with 250 kids at 7pm and we are wondering whether to cancel or not. Just trying to get a feel for when the snow will start to get bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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