December 14/15 winter storm threat

[Baroclinic Zone]

I like how SE MA is getting no respect at all from the TV/Media outlets.  1-3"?  4-6" looks more likely to me.

[N. OF PIKE]

I love kocin books, but I wish the Kocin books had CF location and associated temps for a cpl periods posted wrt to each east coast snowfall that occurred.

I would like to know more about what determines the CF position and movement during a "storm". The orientation movememt and location of high pressure must be a big player in addition to storm track

Wrt Boxing Day , i cant recall a LP that got so CLOSE to the cape but had boston lock'd in cold.

One thing i noted to myself on modeling the day of that storm was the way that the lower pressure isobars , angled NE , almost like elongated low sw-ne off of Portland which kept the isobars pointing NE-SW off of boston , which seem'd promising for having nice northerly component despite closeness of low pressure track.

I noticed on a lot of these runs that the isobars are runnin more WNW-ESE to east of BOS implying more of a easterly or even se flow with a Big banana polar HIGH somewhat elongated Se of Atlantic Canada. I didnt think that look'd great. The 0z gfs high didnt have that look, and frankly that is one thing im looking at for e mass , w a understanding lp is much weaker this time and i dont think the warmth would be able to push that far but i find it VERY fascinating

[MarkO]

GFS looking a little juicier (but maybe warmer?)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No it hasn't, they are still there across New England.

See Wills post. And take weatherfella's advise.....Fine line between a king and weenie.

[Bostonseminole]

Harv tweeting his thoughts..

[SouthCoastMA]

I like how SE MA is getting no respect at all from the TV/Media outlets. 1-3"? 4-6" looks more likely to me.

Changeover fetishes. 4-6 is about right

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I like how SE MA is getting no respect at all from the TV/Media outlets. 1-3"? 4-6" looks more likely to me.

I was just talking to my dad about this. All major stations aren't enthused at all.

Dad and I are going out to tune the snowblower, think we see more than 3 inches

[Damage In Tolland]

Have we lost the idea of a long duration event from Saturday morning thru Sunday?

[mattlacroix4]

GFS is much better now with QPF overall. The stronger trend is happening.

[Bostonseminole]

Have we lost the idea of a long duration event from Saturday morning thru Sunday?

 

don't think so, maybe just starting out a bit later..

[ORH_wxman]

Have we lost the idea of a long duration event from Saturday morning thru Sunday?

 

 

Saturday morning might be a bit quick...though prob not for SW CT.

[CoastalWx]

don't think so, maybe just starting out a bit later..

 

It may not be as long as modeled previously thanks to cold dry air, but I still think light snow breaks out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's the best part of living in Eastern Mass. You can have a whole snowstorm saved or ruined by it. It's a relative guessing game that can literally go down to the mile. Usually I am on the wrong end of things at home in Southie unless it is very cold. These interior locations almost can always cash in. Best example is Boxing Day Storm. Coastal Front pounded the areas of Boston while some others had crap snow rates and growth.

Yea, I got the crap snow growth...cf exhaust.

[Bostonseminole]

Harvey..

 

Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 34s

Where it stays all snow at least 3-6" of snow is likely..with 5-10" of snow a distinct possibility

[CoastalWx]

I love kocin books, but I wish the Kocin books had CF location and associated temps for a cpl periods posted wrt to each east coast snowfall that occurred.

I would like to know more about what determines the CF position and movement during a "storm". The orientation movememt and location of high pressure must be a big player in addition to storm track

Wrt Boxing Day , i cant recall a LP that got so CLOSE to the cape but had boston lock'd in cold.

One thing i noted to myself on modeling the day of that storm was the way that the lower pressure isobars , angled NE , almost like elongated low sw-ne off of Portland which kept the isobars pointing NE-SW off of boston , which seem'd promising for having nice northerly component despite closeness of low pressure track.

I noticed on a lot of these runs that the isobars are runnin more WNW-ESE to east of BOS implying more of a easterly or even se flow with a Big banana polar HIGH somewhat elongated Se of Atlantic Canada. I didnt think that look'd great. The 0z gfs high didnt have that look, and frankly that is one thing im looking at for e mass , w a understanding lp is much weaker this time and i dont think the warmth would be able to push that far but i find it VERY fascinating

HP pressure placement. Anywhere from branching out from the Great lakes to nrn ME is good. You want a more concise HP center in that area. 

 

Rapidly deepening low assures ageostrophic flow from HP to LP and will pin the CF right at the coast. 

 

Low track..Track near the BM normally means CF will not make it far inland, but this one may not behave as such due to parent low out west and lack of deepening. 

 

Cold antecedent air. Cold air will want to move to warmer air..aka the ocean so that creates an ageostrophic component too.

[SaCaChAu]

When will this be starting in earnest in Western Mass.

[Bostonseminole]

HP pressure placement. Anywhere from branching out from the Great lakes to nrn ME is good. You want a more concise HP center in that area. 

 

Rapidly deepening low assures ageostrophic flow from HP to LP and will pin the CF right at the coast. 

 

Low track..Track near the BM normally means CF will not make it far inland, but this one may not behave as such due to parent low out west and lack of deepening. 

 

Cold antecedent air. Cold air will want to move to warmer air..aka the ocean so that creates an ageostrophic component too.

 

nice Scott, is there a model attribute that you can look at that will help pinpointing where the CF will park? say some convergence at bla blah ..

[eduggs]

Great GFS run for ENY and most of SNE away from the SE coast.  Looks a lot like recent GEFS means.  I hope it goes kind of like this.

[weathafella]

MAV snow numbers similar to MET.

8+ ORH/BDL

6+ BOS/pvd

4+ Hyannis

[ROOSTA]

I'll take my maybe 4-8" and run. But appears to be ticking upscale. Everything seems to be aligning. Where is that damn wrench? Now if the soundings co-operate in this shake-out.

Game-ON. As always in a precarious location. 

 

First region-wide synoptic snowstorms are always soothing especially before the Holidays        

Sure glad I don't live on the South-shore. Just bustin em.  I really hope this plays out to where everyone cashes in.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I like how SE MA is getting no respect at all from the TV/Media outlets.  1-3"?  4-6" looks more likely to me.

 

Down here they always seem to underproduce and we don't get the good band of snow until we're right on the changeover.  I think 1-3 is a fair bet here.

[eduggs]

GFS is much better now with QPF overall. The stronger trend is happening.

One run isn't much of a trend.  But with ensembles leaning stronger in recent cycles, I agree we might see a slight strengthening trend.  300mb and 500mb looked better this GFS run.  The s/w orientation, amplitute, and strengh... particularly the Lakes s/w, have been jumping around a bit.  It could shift weaker next run.

[N. OF PIKE]

.

HP pressure placement. Anywhere from branching out from the Great lakes to nrn ME is good. You want a more concise HP center in that area. 

 

Rapidly deepening low assures ageostrophic flow from HP to LP and will pin the CF right at the coast. 

 

Low track..Track near the BM normally means CF will not make it far inland, but this one may not behave as such due to parent low out west and lack of deepening. 

 

Cold antecedent air. Cold air will want to move to warmer air..aka the ocean so that creates an ageostrophic component too.

second bolded I did not really think about, or wasn't aware of , thank u.

 

regarding the first bolded, is there much a concern that the high stretches not just from great lakes to NRN ME but elongates WELL E then SE into the N atlantic.....which I guess kind of makes it less centered.

[CarverWX]

I think we see 4+ down here before any change.

[ctsnowstorm628]

You have held this thought all along, Looks like we have established the goal post probably, Just a matter of some subtle differences

Yeah I think many have felt this way. Definitely still feel like near ACK is as NW as this can possibly go with the bm being the SE limit.

[CTWeatherFreak]

One run isn't much of a trend. But with ensembles leaning stronger in recent cycles, I agree we might see a slight strengthening trend. 300mb and 500mb looked better this GFS run. The s/w orientation, amplitute, and strengh... particularly the Lakes s/w, have been jumping around a bit. It could shift weaker next run.

Does strengthening mean more ack and less bm track and, hence, more taint in Ct?

[CoastalWx]

second bolded I did not really think about, or wasn't aware of , thank u.

 

regarding the first bolded, is there much a concern that the high stretches not just from great lakes to NRN ME but elongates WELL E then SE into the N atlantic.....which I guess kind of makes it less centered.

 

Yeah it's not classic, but it's good enough to keep it mostly snow. Honestly if this low deepened a bit more it would probably be even better. Just because the low comes closer does not necessarily mean the low levels warm. A bombing low near Chatham can keep BOS in the 20s...aka Boxing Day 2010.  So there is a variety that goes into how low level cold stays. SSTs clearly matter too and so does the flow just above the surface like at 950mb. Usually I like to see those winds more E and NE to help keep the layer above us just cold enough. That layer looks to warm up a bit which may cause a brief taint. I still think the GFS is too warm overall. I mean look how close the NAM came and that was colder. Mesoscale models resolve those features a bit better.

[weathafella]

Wow uncle is juiced!

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah I think many have felt this way. Definitely still feel like near ACK is as NW as this can possibly go with the bm being the SE limit.

 

I would think in addition to the secondary low would be it's strength and also the primary and how intact it remains on future runs, which could determine the mid level taint and track of secondary as well

[Baroclinic Zone]

Down here they always seem to underproduce and we don't get the good band of snow until we're right on the changeover.  I think 1-3 is a fair bet here.

 

I will respectfully disagree with this one.  1-3" for CC and Islands, sure but SEMA will get more than that.  3-6"/4-8" would be my call NW of the canal up to a PVD/BOS line.