ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How late do the mid levels redevelop....are eastern spots close for that....a la 12/21/08? Yeah it might be close...esp if the late night trends continue today...but I'd probably hedge against it going nuts like that. There def could be some CF enhancement somewhere though. There's going to be a strong temp gradient where that sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coastal front for this one is going to be so freakin awesome. Personally think I'm too close to 495 for the best of it. Would rather be Stoneham, Wilmington, Woburn. I think the boundary might sit over the city for awhile if the CAD is as good as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah it might be close...esp if the late night trends continue today...but I'd probably hedge against it going nuts like that. There def could be some CF enhancement somewhere though. There's going to be a strong temp gradient where that sets up. 700mb low doesn't reform, it stays intact across the Great Lakes, so we have at least southerly flow to as low as 700mb, but the 850mb low may end up traveling to our southeast if trends continue keeping even the Cape and Martha's Vineyard all snow, but that is highly unlikely at this time. Also models still showing some Ocean Effect Snows for Cape Cod, MA and Islands with southwesterly flow developing at the surface for Friday. Also that shortwave entering the NW US is quite potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is why I'm not worried about CNE/NNE. 20:1 ratios should be easy enough to pull off up this way. These are pretty good probabilities for a deep DGZ at this range on the SREF. IF this were to come to fruition, then .40 would be 7-8" of snow, correct? The kind of snow that you could clean your car off with a good sneeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah it might be close...esp if the late night trends continue today...but I'd probably hedge against it going nuts like that. There def could be some CF enhancement somewhere though. There's going to be a strong temp gradient where that sets up. I'm expecting 4-8"....6-10" if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 IF this were to come to fruition, then .40 would be 7-8" of snow, correct? The kind of snow that you could clean your car off with a good sneeze. Definitely not the best snowpack snowfall, but I would take it and run. Is there going to be any wind in the days after? Could have some nice blowing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm expecting 4-8"....6-10" if things break right. Double digits NW of the Front pounding huge dendrites weeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Paste for SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The coastal front for this one is going to be so freakin awesome. Personally think I'm too close to 495 for the best of it. Would rather be Stoneham, Wilmington, Woburn. I think the boundary might sit over the city for awhile if the CAD is as good as advertised. This is the most intriguing aspect for me...more than the 6" of snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is why I'm not worried about CNE/NNE. 20:1 ratios should be easy enough to pull off up this way. These are pretty good probabilities for a deep DGZ at this range on the SREF. Are those sref's updated or are they from the warmer more nw runs of earlier nam's. Just think that area of sweet dentrite deliciousness may shift s on next sref package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs has been trending away from the idea of overunning on sat and more towards a consolidated system with some initial waa. Anyway, upper air looks very good this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like 12z GFS is taking a track between ACK and the BM at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Paste for SE New England. Not to start. Column is extremely cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This is the most intriguing aspect for me...more than the 6" of snowfall... It's the best part of living in Eastern Mass. You can have a whole snowstorm saved or ruined by it. It's a relative guessing game that can literally go down to the mile. Usually I am on the wrong end of things at home in Southie unless it is very cold. These interior locations almost can always cash in. Best example is Boxing Day Storm. Coastal Front pounded the areas of Boston while some others had crap snow rates and growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not to start. Column is extremely cold. True, 12z GFS looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Noyes says game on http://ow.ly/i/40ae1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 True, 12z GFS looks cold. Eh, pending the Euro thinking 1-3 or 2-4 type deal here. Those sneaky warm layers always seem to punch in faster than we think. Hoping for a more consolidated low on the Euro. Looks good for many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs has been trending away from the idea of overunning on sat and more towards a consolidated system with some initial waa. Anyway, upper air looks very good this run. No it hasn't, they are still there across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Noyes says game on http://ow.ly/i/40ae1 when isn't he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS pretty steady past few runs, 4-8" looks likely now, question is can we squeeze out more? maybe a weenie spot NW of 128? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Good run for most of NE. It actually does phase in a few pieces but then the northern sw closes off and kicks it. Prob the best scenario right now, sne doesnt want a complete phase but far interior would certainly enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 when isn't he About never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still think a final track in between ACK and BM..maybe even near ACK by 20 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No it hasn't, they are still there across New England. Its not as early as other GFS runs...the overrunning stuff doesn't start until midday or a bit later in eastern areas. This is probably correct because there is initial dry air to overcome and the system is a bit more consolidated on guidance than it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS is basically a front end thump to showery/dry slot look near 09z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No it hasn't, they are still there across New England. Not as much as previous runs the last two days or so. Hr 54 its just getting into most of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Todd.. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/12/12/snow-on-the-way-3/ "..With this being a mainly snow event it becomes all about how much…early thoughts have most in a 3-6″ zone with 1-3″ expected over SE Mass (especially Cape & Islands)…there is also a chance for higher amounts NW of Boston (mainly outside of 495 of 6+”). This will certainly be a plowable snow and for many the first of the season." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For S of BOS, I like the GFS. Solid front end thump before we sniff mixed precip and that looks brief before it gets shutoff by dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would hate to dry slot, and turn to rain, but it looks I might do both if the track is close to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still think a final track in between ACK and BM..maybe even near ACK by 20 miles or so. You have held this thought all along, Looks like we have established the goal post probably, Just a matter of some subtle differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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