Patrick-02540 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So far looks like another nickel and dime event for us in this corner of the cape. Yeah. Looks to changeover from LI up through SE CT, southern RI to Plymouth. We are, of course, well south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GYX early a.m. disco is decidedly meh re: up this way. Makes it sound like a fringe job - east trend, progressive, "possibility" of accumulating snow. Seems like a disconnect from all the talk of a can't-miss long-duration event. We seem to play the yin to BOX's yang often. BTW, for you in CNE...ignore QPF. Looks good for the mid level features there. Dendrite over to Jeff in ME...even PF will do well. This is how I feel, I'm not concerned with QPF right now. We'll do fine, continue the wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuwx: Scott does this map reflect what you and Will are saying about mid level features? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks for the analysis. By the sound of it, it seems like we may be right on the line. Do you still think we are in for a pretty decent snowfall around here? For ****s and giggles, the 12z NAM keeps us below 0c throughout the column thru about 9z Sunday. By than, we've seen about 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We seem to play the yin to BOX's yang often. This is how I feel, I'm not concerned with QPF right now. We'll do fine, continue the wintry appeal. Esp for S ME...I think that area will do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MET snow numbers: Awesome! 8+ for most of sne. 6+ out to Hyannis and pwm/psm. 8+ BDL/BOS/pvd/ORH/tan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuweather gives me a 3" max. Meh. Long duration to maybe get 3" - meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We seem to play the yin to BOX's yang often. This is how I feel, I'm not concerned with QPF right now. We'll do fine, continue the wintry appeal. I was thinking the exact same thing PWMan wrote. Really downplays this storm in the discussion. Let's just say I notice a difference sometimes in the late night am vs PM discussions. Good to hear you are confident though. I think 4-8 will at least be in a cards for a lot of our hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Esp for S ME...I think that area will do just fine. More good assurance, thanks. I think we could see an increase of QPF today in models. NAM is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MET snow numbers: Awesome!8+ for most of sne. 6+ out to Hyannis and pwm/psm.8+ BDL/BOS/pvd/ORH/tan Wow, those are impressive numbers. Especially for Hyannis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuweather gives me a 3" max. Meh. Long duration to maybe get 3" - meh. I wouldn't get too high or low based on what accuwx is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I was thinking the exact same thing PWMan wrote. Really downplays this storm in the discussion. Let's just say I notice a difference sometimes in the late night am vs PM discussions. Good to hear you are confident though. I think 4-8 will at least be in a cards for a lot of our hood. It should be a solid advisory type event, maybe somebody lucks out and sees low end warning out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I wouldn't get too high or low based on what accuwx is predicting.But its "accu"rate weather. Their name says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuweather gives me a 3" max. Meh. Long duration to maybe get 3" - meh. Direct the "meh" to accuweather and not the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Another good thing I see is, no sneaky warm layer.. NAM has about .5" of qpf for all of CT before sleet fest as 850s go well above 32 except for NW corner.. Surface temps stay well below freezing for all but immediate shore.. But if other models stay cold, I expect NAM to trend a bit colder. As is, with good ratios, NAM looks like 4-8" across Connecticut. With room to trend better. Starts snowing with temps in the teens, that's awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MET snow numbers: Awesome! 8+ for most of sne. 6+ out to Hyannis and pwm/psm. 8+ BDL/BOS/pvd/ORH/tan jerry--do you have psf and aww? On pho e here. Tia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM sounding for 00z Sunday basically has the sfc to 600mb all in the snowgrowth region for ORH. I'm guessing that would be pretty efficient ice crystal production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For ****s and giggles, the 12z NAM keeps us below 0c throughout the column thru about 9z Sunday. By than, we've seen about 6-10". I would lock that in a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MET snow numbers: Awesome! 8+ for most of sne. 6+ out to Hyannis and pwm/psm. 8+ BDL/BOS/pvd/ORH/tan Deep deep snows many folks near a foot OTG by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would lock that in a heart beat A cool site to use is Twisterdata.com. You can actually look at the skew-t's rather quickly and easily. There are 4 model grid points around us. One is up Bridgewater, one over in Woonsocket, one in Westport, and one in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A cool site to use is Twisterdata.com. You can actually look at the skew-t's rather quickly and easily. There are 4 model grid points around us. One is up Bridgewater, one over in Woonsocket, one in Westport, and one in Plymouth. Awesome, I'll take a look right now. Bridgewater I think would be a good one to use, pretty darn close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Awesome, I'll take a look right now. Bridgewater I think would be a good one to use, pretty darn close to us I think you can use Plymouth State sight too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not even close. We are in a good place. It has the highest QPF seen in days over us. ok, hard to follow with all the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Will is in a great spot. However, if I had to pick an alternative me and Ray are high fiving up here also. Grab a brew and watch the snow fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 MET snow numbers: Awesome!8+ for most of sne. 6+ out to Hyannis and pwm/psm.8+ BDL/BOS/pvd/ORH/tanHI, uncanny I say, uncanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM sounding for 00z Sunday basically has the sfc to 600mb all in the snowgrowth region for ORH. I'm guessing that would be pretty efficient ice crystal production. This is why I'm not worried about CNE/NNE. 20:1 ratios should be easy enough to pull off up this way. These are pretty good probabilities for a deep DGZ at this range on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers. How late do the mid levels redevelop....are eastern spots close for that....a la 12/21/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 My concern is still the 850mb tracks over the Cape, we get warm sectored by the 850mb low, but surface low stays southeast of us. Too early to tell where the 850mb surface low ends up reforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers. How late do the mid levels redevelop....are eastern spots close for that....a la 12/21/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Grab a brew and watch the snow fall? Might be a good to go, I'll text ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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