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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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GYX early a.m. disco is decidedly meh re: up this way. Makes it sound like a fringe job - east trend, progressive, "possibility" of accumulating snow. Seems like a disconnect from all the talk of a can't-miss long-duration event.

 

We seem to play the yin to BOX's yang often.

 

BTW, for you in CNE...ignore QPF. Looks good for the mid level features there. Dendrite over to Jeff in ME...even PF will do well.

 

This is how I feel, I'm not concerned with QPF right now. We'll do fine, continue the wintry appeal.

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We seem to play the yin to BOX's yang often.

 

 

This is how I feel, I'm not concerned with QPF right now. We'll do fine, continue the wintry appeal.

 

I was thinking the exact same thing PWMan wrote. Really downplays this storm in the discussion. Let's just say I notice a difference sometimes in the late night am vs PM discussions. Good to hear you are confident though. I think 4-8 will at least be in a cards for a lot of our hood.

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 I was thinking the exact same thing PWMan wrote. Really downplays this storm in the discussion. Let's just say I notice a difference sometimes in the late night am vs PM discussions. Good to hear you are confident though. I think 4-8 will at least be in a cards for a lot of our hood.

 

It should be a solid advisory type event, maybe somebody lucks out and sees low end warning out of it.

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Another good thing I see is, no sneaky warm layer.. NAM has about .5" of qpf for all of CT before sleet fest as 850s go well above 32 except for NW corner.. Surface temps stay well below freezing for all but immediate shore.. But if other models stay cold, I expect NAM to trend a bit colder. 

 

As is, with good ratios, NAM looks like 4-8" across Connecticut.  With room to trend better.

 

Starts snowing with temps in the teens, that's awesome.. 

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A cool site to use is Twisterdata.com. You can actually look at the skew-t's rather quickly and easily. There are 4 model grid points around us. One is up Bridgewater, one over in Woonsocket, one in Westport, and one in Plymouth.

Awesome, I'll take a look right now. Bridgewater I think would be a good one to use, pretty darn close to us

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The NAM sounding for 00z Sunday basically has the sfc to 600mb all in the snowgrowth region for ORH. I'm guessing that would be pretty efficient ice crystal production. :lol:

 

This is why I'm not worried about CNE/NNE. 20:1 ratios should be easy enough to pull off up this way.

 

These are pretty good probabilities for a deep DGZ at this range on the SREF.

 

SREF_prob_dend_100__f069.gif

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Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers.

How late do the mid levels redevelop....are eastern spots close for that....a la 12/21/08?

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Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers.

How late do the mid levels redevelop....are eastern spots close for that....a la 12/21/08?

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