Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 nam is a bonafide snowstorm for all of SNE a coastal dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam is a weenies dream, given the pattern. Pretty much squeezing out the best case scenario. The fact its coming in now closer to the rest of the guidance, it looks legit...i would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would like to think we would do okay around here, however I have a hard time thinking we get 4-8 or something. Not sure we stay all snow I think winds will be more NE ans lower levels colder. Maybe it tickles 35 and a mix over cstl SE MA, but IF...IF this tracks near the BM and with that high..it will be mostly snow for many. The only caveat is the mid level warming which is still evident...but the trends were to close off 850 a bit sooner and slow this warming. TAN will be tough, but it should stay colder than models have. You still may changeover, but perhaps it's brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam is a weenies dream, given the pattern. Pretty much squeezing out the best case scenario. The fact its coming in now closer to the rest of the guidance, it looks legit...i would assume. Why didn't you see this coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Majority of guidance sees most of MA as the winna winna as it catches the best forcing sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM still is mild upstairs, but it had nowhere to go, but cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM still is mild upstairs, but it had nowhere to go, but cooler. As well as SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Why didn't you see this coming? Secretly, i did. Lolol..... But if i said it...i woulda been labeled a weenie wishcaster. though i can laugh at myself cuz i know i am one! Most of u folks take me way too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM still is mild upstairs, but it had nowhere to go, but cooler. That's a lot of snow on the NAM for most all of you. The goofy snow thing on this sites model portion is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think winds will be more NE ans lower levels colder. Maybe it tickles 35 and a mix over cstl SE MA, but IF...IF this tracks near the BM and with that high..it will be mostly snow for many. The only caveat is the mid level warming which is still evident...but the trends were to close off 850 a bit sooner and slow this warming. TAN will be tough, but it should stay colder than models have. You still may changeover, but perhaps it's brief. Thanks for the analysis. By the sound of it, it seems like we may be right on the line. Do you still think we are in for a pretty decent snowfall around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So far looks like another nickel and dime event for us in this corner of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks for the analysis. By the sound of it, it seems like we may be right on the line. Do you still think we are in for a pretty decent snowfall around here? Holy crap...honestly...he answered that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks for the analysis. By the sound of it, it seems like we may be right on the line. Do you still think we are in for a pretty decent snowfall around here? Well if the track doesn't change, at least 3-5 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 BTW, for you in CNE...ignore QPF. Looks good for the mid level features there. Dendrite over to Jeff in ME...even PF will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sort of a weird synoptic setup on the GFS/Euro - almost 2 separate southern streak vort maxes that eject NE and manage to give us an extended period of snow. No real phasing though. Looks like we're going to be able to thread the needle and get a decent snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Will is in a great spot. However, if I had to pick an alternative me and Ray are high fiving up here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How far west are we talking into NYS and even the NYC area with snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice trends for SNE. Out west where I am, I'm still a little worried the initial ohio valley s/w and associated overrunning underperforms and then the coastal is weak and offshore. But as of right now it would be a widespread moderate snowfall with cold temps and good duration. Saturday's snow has gradually slid southward and slower on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 BTW, for you in CNE...ignore QPF. Looks good for the mid level features there. Dendrite over to Jeff in ME...even PF will do well. Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 As well as SE OTS for us? My excitement is waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would like to lock the NAM right now...Just beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OTS for us? My excitement is waning. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accuwx: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OTS for us? My excitement is waning. No, The Nam was the northern outliar, Its moving towards the rest of the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OTS for us? My excitement is waning. Not even close. We are in a good place. It has the highest QPF seen in days over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even with that NAM track, look how much colder it is. The NAM is good for something...it's the resolution it has allowing for better depiction of CAD. Now picture that track a bit further SE which may be reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OTS for us? My excitement is waning. Just ignore my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sort of a weird synoptic setup on the GFS/Euro - almost 2 separate southern streak vort maxes that eject NE and manage to give us an extended period of snow. No real phasing though. Looks like we're going to be able to thread the needle and get a decent snow out of this. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OTS for us? My excitement is waning. What GYX is saying is the low moves more ENE than NE after the BM which isn't ideal for a prolific snow producer up north. What the guys here are saying is don't worry about that because the synoptic features are such that you don't need an ideal track to get decent snows. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ALONG THE E COAST SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY. THE UPR LVL FEATURE IS A POSITIVE TILTED OPEN WAVE THAT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NE SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT PROVIDE A BIG SNOW EVENT THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE SFC LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...CROSSING THE 40N 70W LAT/LON BENCHMARK FOR HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR OUR FCST AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER IT CROSS THIS BENCHMARK IT MOVES MORE TO THE ENE RATHER THAN A PREFERRED NE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW. SFC LOW DOESN`T DEEPEN UNTIL AFTER IT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND PAST THE HAGUE LINE DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE UPR LVL SUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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