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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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I would like to think we would do okay around here, however I have a hard time thinking we get 4-8 or something. Not sure we stay all snow

 

I think winds will be more NE ans lower levels colder. Maybe it tickles 35 and a mix over cstl SE MA, but IF...IF this tracks near the BM and with that high..it will be mostly snow for many. The only caveat is the mid level warming which is still evident...but the trends were to close off 850 a bit sooner and slow this warming.  TAN will be tough, but it should stay colder than models have. You still may changeover, but perhaps it's brief.

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I think winds will be more NE ans lower levels colder. Maybe it tickles 35 and a mix over cstl SE MA, but IF...IF this tracks near the BM and with that high..it will be mostly snow for many. The only caveat is the mid level warming which is still evident...but the trends were to close off 850 a bit sooner and slow this warming. TAN will be tough, but it should stay colder than models have. You still may changeover, but perhaps it's brief.

Thanks for the analysis. By the sound of it, it seems like we may be right on the line. Do you still think we are in for a pretty decent snowfall around here?

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Sort of a weird synoptic setup on the GFS/Euro - almost 2 separate southern streak vort maxes that eject NE and manage to give us an extended period of snow. 

 

No real phasing though.

 

Looks like we're going to be able to thread the needle and get a decent snow out of this. 

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Nice trends for SNE.  Out west where I am, I'm still a little worried the initial ohio valley s/w and associated overrunning underperforms and then the coastal is weak and offshore.  But as of right now it would be a widespread moderate snowfall with cold temps and good duration.  Saturday's snow has gradually slid southward and slower on the guidance.

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BTW, for you in CNE...ignore QPF. Looks good for the mid level features there. Dendrite over to Jeff in ME...even PF will do well.

 

 

Yep...often happens in this fast movers where the mid-level centers don't really redevelop to our SE (or at least until really late rin the game)....good for some weenie banding. I commented that even the Euro looked okay up there too despite what some might think if they were only staring at computer QPF output numbers.

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OTS for us? My excitement is waning.

 

What GYX is saying is the low moves more ENE than NE after the BM which isn't ideal for a prolific snow producer up north.  What the guys here are saying is don't worry about that because the synoptic features are such that you don't need an ideal track to get decent snows.

 

MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ALONG THE E COAST SATURDAY NGT

AND SUNDAY. THE UPR LVL FEATURE IS A POSITIVE TILTED OPEN WAVE THAT

MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NE SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT PROVIDE A BIG SNOW

EVENT THOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE SFC

LOW PRES TRACKS NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...CROSSING THE 40N

70W LAT/LON BENCHMARK FOR HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR OUR FCST AREA.

HOWEVER...AFTER IT CROSS THIS BENCHMARK IT MOVES MORE TO THE ENE

RATHER THAN A PREFERRED NE TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW. SFC LOW DOESN`T

DEEPEN UNTIL AFTER IT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND PAST

THE HAGUE LINE DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE UPR LVL SUPPORT.

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