Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think this one is weak sauce Not a big memorable event but a nice moderate one It's a weak low by the standards of the last few years. This isn't going to be in the 970a or 80s as it rumbles by the bm and it's unlikely we will see any type of bombogenesis. Streams are unlikely to fully phase south of us etc. Doesn't mean it can't produce good snows but as Will noted the most reliable euro looks great synoptically in delivering high end advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OKX is forecasting virtually all snow for the southern half of CT away from the immediate coast, believing that even the colder Euro is a bit too warm in the BL. Still... it's gonna rain. At least we'll probably squeeze a few inches out of this before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Large area of WAA snows and mid level fronto stuff. You may do better than me. It's all good. I almost wish QPF didn't exist on models until inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still... it's gonna rain. At least we'll probably squeeze a few inches out of this before the changeover. Inland S CT may never changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GYX early a.m. disco is decidedly meh re: up this way. Makes it sound like a fringe job - east trend, progressive, "possibility" of accumulating snow. Seems like a disconnect from all the talk of a can't-miss long-duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I almost wish QPF didn't exist on models until inside 48 hours. Yea right its nice to use human input on adjusting that. The best I ever read is Wes for that, man is uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's a weak low by the standards of the last few years. This isn't going to be in the 970a or 80s as it rumbles by the bm and it's unlikely we will see any type of bombogenesis. Streams are unlikely to fully phase south of us etc. Doesn't mean it can't produce good snows but as Will noted the most reliable euro looks great synoptically in delivering high end advisory snows. True dat. I don't think anyone expected a wound up monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yea right its nice to use human input on adjusting that. The best I ever read is Wes for that, man is uncanny. We say it all the time on here, but I don't think anyone really acknowledges it....QPF is by far the worst scoring model parameter. That's why we look at stuff like ML fronto, theta-e advection, LLJ, PWAT, etc. It gives you an idea if the models might be overdoing or underdoing the precip...and it works a great majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GYX early a.m. disco is decidedly meh re: up this way. Makes it sound like a fringe job - east trend, progressive, "possibility" of accumulating snow. Seems like a disconnect from all the talk of a can't-miss long-duration event. Yep eksters office is decidedly ho hum right now for their zones seemingly favoring a SE trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A 1980s-esque type of event, sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We say it all the time on here, but I don't think anyone really acknowledges it....QPF is by far the worst scoring model parameter. That's why we look at stuff like ML fronto, theta-e advection, LLJ, PWAT, etc. It gives you an idea if the models might be overdoing or underdoing the precip...and it works a great majority of the time. QPF and sim radar are my worst enemies..lol. Oh, and snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We are all going to have deep snow otg. It starts snowing before we wake up Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Still... it's gonna rain. At least we'll probably squeeze a few inches out of this before the changeover. For around here (KMMK), even the 6z gfs soundings show the surface below freezing for the whole event, so verbatim, no liquid. The BL does edge above freezing after most of the precip has fallen. OKX thinks it's overdoing BL warming. They are forecasting a chance of briefly mixing with freezing drizzle toward the end, but it would account for only a few hundreths of QPF. All this is applies to areas away from the immediate coast. Personally, I think that if the high stays more or less north of New England, as many of the latest runs are showing, we'll stay virtually all snow. If it's retreating northeastward, more of a mix at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OKX is forecasting virtually all snow for the southern half of CT away from the immediate coast, believing that even the colder Euro is a bit too warm in the BL. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN REDEVELOPING ALONG THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT AND HEADING NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SUNDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NE THAT WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLD AIR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SAT AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE NEARBY ARCTIC FRONT...THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT VIA STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AS FAR AS THERMAL PROFILES GO...BOTH MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD HANG IN LONGER THAN MODEL FCST...AND EVEN AT THE COAST WHERE SNOWFALL SHOULD COUNTERACT WARMING ON EASTERLY FLOW. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT NW OF NYC...AND SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE GFS SHOWING A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. SINCE THE BETTER PART OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME P-TYPE BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM SNOW...THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO THINK MOST INLAND SECTIONS AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-7 INCHES...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THESE AMOUNTS...AND A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS NW OF NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. Could be...although I think the Euro/GGEM combo looks fairly reasonable and I see no reason to go with an even colder solution. I'm surprised how quickly the American models are to go straight from snow to rain early Sunday. Even the GFS is only spitting out 0.3" QPF of snow before going over to 0.5" of rain. I'd be surprised if the low level cold is eroded that quickly. I think you're in a good spot...could see snow sleet/fzra sneaking in at the end for you. Down here I've been thinking yesterday that we end as some rain...but if the Euro/GGEM verify it really may just be some drizzle at that point. Am I the only one not terribly impressed with whatever moves in later tomorrow night into first half of Saturday? I definitely see mood flakes...but I'm doubtful of any meaningful accumulations until we get into mid-late afternoon Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Am I the only one not terribly impressed with whatever moves in later tomorrow night into first half of Saturday? I definitely see mood flakes...but I'm doubtful of any meaningful accumulations until we get into mid-late afternoon Saturday. I'm not impressed with the rates Saturday morning/early afternoon. I'm impressed with the snow growth though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could be...although I think the Euro/GGEM combo looks fairly reasonable and I see no reason to go with an even colder solution. I'm surprised how quickly the American models are to go straight from snow to rain early Sunday. Even the GFS is only spitting out 0.3" QPF of snow before going over to 0.5" of rain. I'd be surprised if the low level cold is eroded that quickly. I think you're in a good spot...could see snow sleet/fzra sneaking in at the end for you. Down here I've been thinking yesterday that we end as some rain...but if the Euro/GGEM verify it really may just be some drizzle at that point. Am I the only one not terribly impressed with whatever moves in later tomorrow night into first half of Saturday? I definitely see mood flakes...but I'm doubtful of any meaningful accumulations until we get into mid-late afternoon Saturday. Ditto on the bottom paragraph. Higher elevations and the normally favored spots that always seem to pop a few inches when a squirrel sneezes aside, as modeled looks more like mood snows. But even lighter snow will accumulate well with the fluff and cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I do think the lower levels are probably warming a bit too quickly on all models..GFS most notably. Yes this winds will turn more NE-E...but it may be something where instead of modeled temps near 36..it's more like 32 or something..especially with mdt or heavier precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FWIW, the SREFs have cooled several degrees from 03z to 09z at 850mb and 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Noyes thinking 6+/heaviest snow "likely" from Essex county/Boston to pretty much all of mass not SE of Boston, CNE is well within his 6+ heavy snow area as well. Thinks 3+ and a mix likely for much of CT and the south shore, less on the cape. Oh and he seemed to thinkCT outside of the southeast corner of the state could be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 FWIW, the SREFs have cooled several degrees from 03z to 09z at 850mb and 2m. Yeah and the NAM is coming back to reality finally too. In 36-42 hours it should be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam is already better thru 42hr with upper air features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is going to be juicer I think. Look at all that gulf energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If there's a lot of convection in the SE sometimes the NAM/SREFs can nail a more NW track. The problem is it's tough to tell when it has a clue and when it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We are all going to have deep snow otg. It starts snowing before we wake up Saturday for you, we might have to wait till noon or a bit after in my area.. fun weekend ahead with the kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 for you, we might have to wait till noon or a bit after in my area.. fun weekend ahead with the kids! Yep! Looking forward to it - already told my daughter about the snow coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 1-3 here would be my call. Looks like north and west of Boston should do well though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm not impressed with the rates Saturday morning/early afternoon. I'm impressed with the snow growth though. That's exactly what we had on Tuesday..snow growth was phenomenal..Ryan even posted how BL in his area was >32..but the snow growth/cloud physics overcame and still dropped a few inches there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even down to BOS will be fine I think. If this storm stays near the BM with that high, they'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 for you, we might have to wait till noon or a bit after in my area.. fun weekend ahead with the kids! OEs for you. Don't underestimate that..Cold arctic dome with NE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Even down to BOS will be fine I think. If this storm stays near the BM with that high, they'll be fine. I would like to think we would do okay around here, however I have a hard time thinking we get 4-8 or something. Not sure we stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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