Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL I just mean I might get some enhancement off the water. We'll see. Just good to get snow. I haven't had a chance to look at the runs since midnight but they sound ok.Im just happy to see MPM in the heavy snow bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The SREF's (which are probably pretty useless at this range)....have really impressive probs mostly in CNE/NNE...with some really warm members in there. It has 30% probs of 8" already showing up at 78h already. That's pretty good for that time range. Mean up here for LCI is already 7" and IZG is 9". Further S ORH mean is 6" and 5" for BOS. But it's the SREF's. So it means pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL I just mean I might get some enhancement off the water. We'll see. Just good to get snow. I haven't had a chance to look at the runs since midnight but they sound ok. Didn't your hood get 2 feet + in early January 1994 from all the additional oes enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We just had an OES flurry, it was nice to see some snow fall again. I'll post pictures on facebook and then link you to my page. A little later when I get more photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Friday morning will be interesting over here on Cape Cod, MA. Winds veer to southwesterly allowing some precip to develop in the form of snow off the ocean from Martha's Vineyard to HYA on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Friday morning will be interesting over here on Cape Cod, MA. Winds veer to southwesterly allowing some precip to develop in the form of snow off the ocean from Martha's Vineyard to HYA on east. My parents live in Orleans and got several inches of OES a bunch of years back. There was one year ('04 maybe?) where Chatham got 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Didn't your hood get 2 feet + in early January 1994 from all the additional oes enhancement? Yes this area got over 100" I believe. This area also got over 16" from 12/19-12/20 2008 before Rays makes twister storm. Regardless this might be further south in PYM county. The gfs was nice for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes this area got over 100" I believe. This area also got over 16" from 12/19-12/20 2008 before Rays makes twister storm. Regardless this might be further south in PYM county. The gfs was nice for all of us. Boston TV mets pushing 1-3" for your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Boston TV mets pushing 1-3" for your hood. They may need to discount the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Im just happy to see MPM in the heavy snow bands I'd say Will up to Hubb has the best potential though. Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Im just happy to see MPM in the heavy snow bands LOL--I appreciate your happiness. Hopefully what I can't get on qpf I can make up for with some higher ratios. Methinks that--shockingly--Hubb Dave and Will are in a primo-location for this no matter what minor adjustments may take place between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The SREF's (which are probably pretty useless at this range)....have really impressive probs mostly in CNE/NNE...with some really warm members in there. It has 30% probs of 8" already showing up at 78h already. That's pretty good for that time range. Mean up here for LCI is already 7" and IZG is 9". Further S ORH mean is 6" and 5" for BOS. But it's the SREF's. So it means pretty much nothing. Considering they are based off the NAM nonsense it's not surprising they are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'd say Will up to Hubb has the best potential though. Of course. lol--your post and mine say the exact same thing at the same time. Scary GC synergy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think CoastalWx jacks and Ray melts (down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think CoastalWx jacks and Ray melts (down).LOL it may briefly get dicey here and that high is supplying dry air on Saturday. I'm not totally knowledgeable with climo here like I was with DOT so it will be interesting to see. The stronger yet benchmark track is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL it may briefly get dicey here and that high is supplying dry air on Saturday. I'm not totally knowledgeable with climo here like I was with DOT so it will be interesting to see. The stronger yet benchmark track is good. Leon's gonna give you a big wet kiss and you'll like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Personally, my lofty goal is 6 inches. Snow that is you dirty weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Considering they are based off the NAM nonsense it's not surprising they are warmI think the take away is that the numbers looked great for CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think the take away is that the numbers looked great for CNE/NNE. It looks great everywhere my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL it may briefly get dicey here and that high is supplying dry air on Saturday. I'm not totally knowledgeable with climo here like I was with DOT so it will be interesting to see. The stronger yet benchmark track is good. If it truly does wind up with a benchmark track, that'll be great for the usual suspects. That track puts on toward the edge typically, but hopefully the ratios will make up for that for those of us in the hinterlands. I suspect that that will be the case with the JP in central mass. As of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6Z GEFS bring the low just about over the bm in good agreement with the op (Op actually a tick east of the ensemble mean) We're going to have some fun this weekend folks. Snowman might accuse you and KTAN of wish casting with this se trend. Weak sauce is the way to go this year so far. They're not prolific storms but they produce. I think a track around the bm is the way to go attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I would completely discount what the NAM and SREFs are showing right now. They are both northern outliers. Looks like a pretty tight cluster on or just inside the BM amongst the globals and ensembles. Bodes well for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snowman might accuse you and KTAN of wish casting with this se trend. Weak sauce is the way to go this year so far. They're not prolific storms but they produce. I think a track around the bm is the way to go attm I don't think this one is weak sauceNot a big memorable event but a nice moderate one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If it truly does wind up with a benchmark track, that'll be great for the usual suspects. That track puts on toward the edge typically, but hopefully the ratios will make up for that for those of us in the hinterlands. I suspect that that will be the case with the JP in central mass. As of now. Large area of WAA snows and mid level fronto stuff. You may do better than me. It's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Speaking for the folks S of BOS, I still think the GFS thermal profiles are too warm. We are going to have a fresh source of arctic air coming in just prior to this and with a weak surface reflection as modeled, it's going to be difficult to dislodge it. It may take the majority of the storm to actually scour that out. Ratios won't be as prolific as out in C MA but they will still be pretty substantial. I don't see why we can't see 4-6" out of this, less along the S Coast/ CC and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Large area of WAA snows and mid level fronto stuff. You may do better than me. It's all good. Any snow is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think this one is weak sauce Not a big memorable event but a nice moderate one Strictly on a SLP, it will likely be. Snow amounts will be moderate. For mid-Dec, a solid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OKX is forecasting virtually all snow for the southern half of CT away from the immediate coast, believing that even the colder Euro is a bit too warm in the BL. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOTHE OH/TN VALLEYS FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN REDEVELOPINGALONG THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT AND HEADING NE ACROSS THE 40N/70WBENCHMARK SUNDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOWTRACK AND INTENSITY...AND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF ANARCTIC HIGH TO THE NE THAT WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLDAIR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATAS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE NEARBY ARCTIC FRONT...THEN THE HEAVIESTPRECIP SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT VIA STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ANDH7-8 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AS FAR AS THERMALPROFILES GO...BOTH MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARYLAYER...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD HANG INLONGER THAN MODEL FCST...AND EVEN AT THE COAST WHERE SNOWFALLSHOULD COUNTERACT WARMING ON EASTERLY FLOW. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ONTHERMAL PROFILES ALOFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWFCOLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT NW OF NYC...AND SNOW MIXING WITHOR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE GFS SHOWINGA CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. SINCETHE BETTER PART OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME P-TYPEBEGINS TO CHANGE FROM SNOW...THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD NOT HAVE AMAJOR IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO THINK MOST INLAND SECTIONSAND ALL OF SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-7INCHES...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THESE AMOUNTS...AND A WINTERSTORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS NW OF NYC ANDSOUTHERN CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Large area of WAA snows and mid level fronto stuff. You may do better than me. It's all good. Appease the QPF hounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think this one is weak sauce Not a big memorable event but a nice moderate one Yea the death band super low slp high wind high impact folks need to look away. Nice gentle high ratio moderate snow, looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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