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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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The SREF's (which are probably pretty useless at this range)....have really impressive probs mostly in CNE/NNE...with some really warm members in there. It has 30% probs of 8" already showing up at 78h already. That's pretty good for that time range. Mean up here for LCI is already 7" and IZG is 9". Further S ORH mean is 6" and 5" for BOS.

 

But it's the SREF's. So it means pretty much nothing.

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Friday morning will be interesting over here on Cape Cod, MA.  Winds veer to southwesterly allowing some precip to develop in the form of  snow off the ocean from Martha's Vineyard to HYA on east.

My parents live in Orleans and got several inches of OES a bunch of years back.  There was one year ('04 maybe?) where Chatham got 14".

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Didn't your hood get 2 feet + in early January 1994 from all the additional oes enhancement?

Yes this area got over 100" I believe. This area also got over 16" from 12/19-12/20 2008 before Rays makes twister storm.

Regardless this might be further south in PYM county. The gfs was nice for all of us.

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Im just happy to see MPM in the heavy snow bands

 

LOL--I appreciate your happiness.

 

Hopefully what I can't get on qpf I can make up for with some higher ratios.  Methinks that--shockingly--Hubb Dave and Will are in a primo-location for this no matter what minor adjustments may take place between now and then.

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The SREF's (which are probably pretty useless at this range)....have really impressive probs mostly in CNE/NNE...with some really warm members in there. It has 30% probs of 8" already showing up at 78h already. That's pretty good for that time range. Mean up here for LCI is already 7" and IZG is 9". Further S ORH mean is 6" and 5" for BOS.

 

But it's the SREF's. So it means pretty much nothing.

Considering they are based off the NAM nonsense it's not surprising they are warm

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LOL it may briefly get dicey here and that high is supplying dry air on Saturday. I'm not totally knowledgeable with climo here like I was with DOT so it will be interesting to see. The stronger yet benchmark track is good.

Leon's gonna give you a big wet kiss and you'll like it!

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LOL it may briefly get dicey here and that high is supplying dry air on Saturday. I'm not totally knowledgeable with climo here like I was with DOT so it will be interesting to see. The stronger yet benchmark track is good.

 

If it truly does wind up with a benchmark track, that'll be great for the usual suspects.  That track puts on toward the edge typically, but hopefully the ratios will make up for that for those of us in the hinterlands.  I suspect that that will be the case with the JP in central mass.  As of now.

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6Z GEFS bring the low just about over the bm in good agreement with the op (Op actually a tick east of the ensemble mean) We're going to have some fun this weekend folks.

Snowman might accuse you and KTAN of wish casting with this se trend.

Weak sauce is the way to go this year so far. They're not prolific storms but they produce. I think a track around the bm is the way to go attm

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If it truly does wind up with a benchmark track, that'll be great for the usual suspects. That track puts on toward the edge typically, but hopefully the ratios will make up for that for those of us in the hinterlands. I suspect that that will be the case with the JP in central mass. As of now.

Large area of WAA snows and mid level fronto stuff. You may do better than me. It's all good.

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Speaking for the folks S of BOS, I still think the GFS thermal profiles are too warm.  We are going to have a fresh source of arctic air coming in just prior to this and with a weak surface reflection as modeled, it's going to be difficult to dislodge it.  It may take the majority of the storm to actually scour that out.  Ratios won't be as prolific as out in C MA but they will still be pretty substantial.  I don't see why we can't see 4-6" out of this, less along the S Coast/ CC and Islands.

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OKX is forecasting virtually all snow for the southern half of CT away from the immediate coast, believing that even the colder Euro is a bit too warm in the BL.

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES TURN TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...THEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG THE NC COAST SAT NIGHT AND HEADING NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK SUNDAY MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW
TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN
ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NE THAT WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL FEED OF COLD
AIR. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SAT
AS MOISTURE OVERRUNS THE NEARBY ARCTIC FRONT...THEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR SAT NIGHT VIA STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AS FAR AS THERMAL
PROFILES GO...BOTH MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD HANG IN
LONGER THAN MODEL FCST...AND EVEN AT THE COAST WHERE SNOWFALL
SHOULD COUNTERACT WARMING ON EASTERLY FLOW. THEY ALSO DISAGREE ON
THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF
COLD ENOUGH FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT NW OF NYC...AND SNOW MIXING WITH
OR CHANGING TO RAIN FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND...AND THE GFS SHOWING
A CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT. SINCE
THE BETTER PART OF THE PRECIP WILL HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME P-TYPE
BEGINS TO CHANGE FROM SNOW...THESE DIFFERENCES SHOULD NOT HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SO THINK MOST INLAND SECTIONS
AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CT SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5-7
INCHES...WITH NYC AND LONG ISLAND SEEING AMOUNTS OF 2-4 OR 3-5
INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THESE AMOUNTS...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR MOST AREAS NW OF NYC AND
SOUTHERN CT.

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