CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Jeez ensembles looked good. Maybe in between the benchmark and ACK, but seemed stronger at first glance then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Meteogram from cmc is 20mm LE (0.8in) snow for KBOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro coming in juicier than 12z...its cold too. I think it will be a good run for many on here including CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A bit juicier than 12z...and plenty cold for all snow N of the south coast. Its not as prolific as the GFS or certainly the GGEM. But synoptically it looks healthier than 12z and has a more defined precip shield extending well into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Will what kind of duration does it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I will also say that based on the vortmax track that its probably not done trending...I could see it getting closer to the coast. The airmass is pretty sick. BOS spends most of Saturday in the teens includng the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We've got a flight 1PM on Saturday out of BDL... think we'll get out before the delays? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Will what kind of duration does it look like? Prob about 30-36 hours starting with mood snows on Saturday morning. The QPF fetish people still will not be happy with the Euro, but I like it more from a synoptic standpoint than the 12z run. The QPF amounts are still mainly high end advisory type snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro seems to continue being consistent with keeping it cold enough for snow away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Prob about 30-36 hours starting with mood snows on Saturday morning. The QPF fetish people still will not be happy with the Euro, but I like it more from a synoptic standpoint than the 12z run. The QPF amounts are still mainly high end advisory type snows. Is this a case of sacrificing lower QPF totals for higher snowfall ratios or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Prob about 30-36 hours starting with mood snows on Saturday morning. The QPF fetish people still will not be happy with the Euro, but I like it more from a synoptic standpoint than the 12z run. The QPF amounts are still mainly high end advisory type snows.Great, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM appears to be warmer and juicier than the GFS, but yet it's the NAM so a warmer bias can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAINING SEPARATE/UNPHASED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME QUITE SHEARED AS IT ENTERS THE COLD CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER SURFACE WAVE WITH LESS QPF...BUT ALSO A COLDER SOLUTION AS SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH WEAKER THERMAL ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR NANTUCKET...WHILE THE 51 ENSEMBLE MEMBER OF THE ECENS TRACKS THE SURFACE WAVE CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS A SOUTHEAST TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET ARE JUST ABOUT OVER THE BENCHMARK 12Z SUNDAY. THUS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY SO NEW TRENDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THINK ITS PRUDENT TO RECOGNIZE THIS MAJOR SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS QPF AND SOMEWHAT COLDER. AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM WAS DISCARDED AS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW/CYCLONE TRACKING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TRACK /INCLUDING THE 51 MEMBER ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON AN EVEN BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF. TIMING...AT THIS TIME RANGE PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME SAT AFTN WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURRING SAT NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUN MORNING. QPF...WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHEARED LOW MODEL QPF CONSENSUS (50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC) IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 0.60 TO 0.80 INCHES. . . SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THIS EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY AND THE COASTAL STORM HASN/T FORMED YET. THUS OUR PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLY LESS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS MIXED PRECIP MAY ENTER THIS REGION. COLD AIRMASS AT THE ONSET MAY YIELD GREATER THAN A 10/1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY MID LEVEL BANDING POTENTIAL INTRODUCES A LOW RISK OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SNOWFALL NUMBERS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL WITH TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice to see the Euro juice back up..It's almost as if BOX was using 12z models instead of 00z. Seems like still the 4-8 or 5-10 ideas we discussed yesterday are decent ideas for now.. a 36-48 hour long snowfall event..Basically is snows the entire weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6z gfs would be great for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6z GFS is less wound up than the 00z run, but I would think higher QPF gets into SNE especially with convection on the southeast side of the surface low and with a surface low intensifying southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6Z GEFS bring the low just about over the bm in good agreement with the op (Op actually a tick east of the ensemble mean) We're going to have some fun this weekend folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 6Z GEFS bring the low just about over the bm in good agreement with the op (Op actually a tick east of the ensemble mean) We're going to have some fun this weekend folks. Ocean effect snows look to start in earnest sometime on Saturday morning. COuld be some good early amounts with the amount of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Prob about 30-36 hours starting with mood snows on Saturday morning. The QPF fetish people still will not be happy with the Euro, but I like it more from a synoptic standpoint than the 12z run. The QPF amounts are still mainly high end advisory type snows. Yes--I am not enthused. 6z GFS is less wound up than the 00z run, but I would think higher QPF gets into SNE especially with convection on the southeast side of the surface low and with a surface low intensifying southeast of the benchmark. Not enthused again. Good for you though. At this point in time, I think we can begin to be dealing with much more nuanced adjustments which is one of my favoriate parts of this whole weather bidness. I'm much more intrigued as we get closer to find where will coastal fronts set up; where does the heaviest qpf fall; etc. Much more exciting to me than following the blockbuster storm that might exist in the 7 day range and be vaporized 12 hours later. But I digress..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z runs will be big, last chance to go amp'd? I mean the flow is so fast maybe models dont get this to tonite even , Also depending on high pressure orientation, movement, etc (which may play just as an important role for e mass) Ptype Either way better high pressure orientation on 0z runs and good trends for those who want mostly snow near boston . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z runs will be big, last chance to go amp'd? I mean the flow is so fast maybe models dont get this to tonite even , Also depending on high pressure orientation, movement, etc (which may play just as an important role for e mass) Ptype Either way better high pressure orientation on 0z runs and good trends for those who want mostly snow near boston . Dude..it's not going to be an amped, blockbuster..It's a weekend long light-moderate snowfall with amounts likely in the 5-10 inch range with locally higher lolli's. It actually starts snowing later tomorrow it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dude..it's not going to be an amped, blockbuster..It's a weekend long light-moderate snowfall with amounts likely in the 5-10 inch range with locally higher lolli's. It actually starts snowing later tomorrow it appears I think he was referring to whether it goes over ack or the bm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAINING SEPARATE/UNPHASED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BECOME QUITE SHEARED AS IT ENTERS THE COLD CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER SURFACE WAVE WITH LESS QPF...BUT ALSO A COLDER SOLUTION AS SURFACE WAVE TRACKS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH WEAKER THERMAL ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR NANTUCKET...WHILE THE 51 ENSEMBLE MEMBER OF THE ECENS TRACKS THE SURFACE WAVE CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS IS A SOUTHEAST TREND FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET ARE JUST ABOUT OVER THE BENCHMARK 12Z SUNDAY. THUS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY SO NEW TRENDS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THINK ITS PRUDENT TO RECOGNIZE THIS MAJOR SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD LESS QPF AND SOMEWHAT COLDER. AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM WAS DISCARDED AS A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW/CYCLONE TRACKING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TRACK /INCLUDING THE 51 MEMBER ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON AN EVEN BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF. TIMING...AT THIS TIME RANGE PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME SAT AFTN WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURRING SAT NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUN MORNING. QPF...WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHEARED LOW MODEL QPF CONSENSUS (50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC) IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 0.60 TO 0.80 INCHES. . . SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...THIS EVENT IS STILL 2 DAYS AWAY AND THE COASTAL STORM HASN/T FORMED YET. THUS OUR PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL FORECAST IS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLY LESS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS MIXED PRECIP MAY ENTER THIS REGION. COLD AIRMASS AT THE ONSET MAY YIELD GREATER THAN A 10/1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY MID LEVEL BANDING POTENTIAL INTRODUCES A LOW RISK OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SNOWFALL NUMBERS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED PRECIP TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL WITH TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. True to form, BOX's is about 24 hrs behind model trends. Welcome to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think he was referring to whether it goes over ack or the bm...ExactlyNot everyone lives on mt tolland. A closer in track is still on table and high pressure orientation is key for e mass cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Congrats MPM!! NWS Boston @NWSBoston1h Frigid temps today & Fri then accumulating snow likely for most of Southern New England late Sat into Sun. #MAwx pic.twitter.com/w0sgUNvHqw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think my hood could do decent with some NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think my hood could do decent with some NE winds. You've been waiting for an event like this up on the hill with NE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You've been waiting for an event like this up on the hill with NE winds LOL I just mean I might get some enhancement off the water. We'll see. Just good to get snow. I haven't had a chance to look at the runs since midnight but they sound ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm surprised the Cape, especially east of HYA doesn't see more southwesterly flow OES events, i guess its because its normally a warmer wind, but during most winters we sometimes get airmasses that are completely cold from DCA to Portland, ME. SO a Southwesterly wind is actually cold enough to produce the needed delta Ts needed for moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The "takeaway" for me in regard to latest trends is a weaker system meaning less winds. Also, a track over ACK means we have a window of lighter winds. I have to get off-island before Sunday afternoon. Any thoughts on winds? Boats usually cut off at 35 knots. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.