CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah Canadian is pretty sweet for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I could see that... I could see some weenie flakes on Friday actually. I think he means on SW winds. That front make have some SHSN along it, agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Models showing something Friday morning, SREFs and NAM as well as GFS have something along the south coast of Cape and the Islands. There may be something HYA-east. SW winds usually aren't the best..but maybe some SHSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think he means on SW winds. That front make have some SHSN along it, agreed. You don't think we get OES on southwest winds, I have seen it before, the arctic front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ORH_wxman, on 11 Dec 2013 - 11:14 PM, said: One thing that sticks out on the GFS is how damned cold the sfc is...Ryan mentioned it earlier. But its kind of weird (and prob a flag) to see the sfc so cold on the GFS like that. When the GFS is sniffing out that type of cold, it usually means business. Its not your typical GFS sounding with -12C mid-level and -3 or -4C sfc. Are you saying this is bad? why is it a flag? I think he's saying the models are usually too quick to throw out the cold, so the cold won't be moved out as quickly as the models show. Will will correct me if I'm wrong but I think it's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 There may be something HYA-east. SW winds usually aren't the best..but maybe some SHSN. Yeah that's what I'm thinking, usually best place for OES on southwesterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think he's saying the models are usually too quick to throw out the cold, so the cold won't be moved out as quickly as the models show. Will will correct me if I'm wrong but I think it's a good sign. Yes...and also that the GFS was showing it that cold in the low levels to begin with as the precip was moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You don't think we get OES on southwest winds, I have seen it before, the arctic front moves through. Other than some snow showers it's tough. I've seen ACK get several inches on WSW wind, but that's because there is no land to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs has been relatively stable past several runs and somewhat more robust tonight but similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GGEM sort of threads the needle on what it would take to get widespread 8-12" for SNE. The high pressure location on it is really key...it doesn't move east...it actually moves back west over W Quebec/E Ontario which would keep places like BOS frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think he's saying the models are usually too quick to throw out the cold, so the cold won't be moved out as quickly as the models show. Will will correct me if I'm wrong but I think it's a good sign. Yes...and also that the GFS was showing it that cold in the low levels to begin with as the precip was moving in.got it got it...so it was a good flag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs has been relatively stable past several runs and somewhat more robust tonight but similar track. Yeah it really didn't change much aloft. And the UK, as you said earlier, is very similar. Both add confidence. The spread of the GEFS seemed to increase last cycle, which surprised me a little. I'll be curious to see if that tightens up a bit tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z GFS is a better solution given that the primary 850mb solution dies out over BUF and a new one develops east of Cape Cod, MA so the 850mb only go above 0C southeast of PVD and BOS and really no further mix west of that corridor. We need to watch how the 850mb circulation develops in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Lol...that's 12+ easily on the GGEM.Jer, Harvs on board, Leons in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 00z GFS is a better solution given that the primary 850mb solution dies out over BUF and a new one develops east of Cape Cod, MA so the 850mb only go above 0C southeast of PVD and BOS and really no further mix west of that corridor. We need to watch how the 850mb circulation develops in future runs.go to Narr and run 12/30/93, look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Jer, Harvs on board, Leons in the room. He's upstairs in the spare bedroom. Wait up for me Leon.,,,I'm a coming home at last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 He's upstairs in the spare bedroom. Wait up for me Leon.,,,I'm a coming home at last!shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 go to Narr and run 12/30/93, look familiar? Different results in the synoptics than now modeled for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GGEM sort of threads the needle on what it would take to get widespread 8-12" for SNE. The high pressure location on it is really key...it doesn't move east...it actually moves back west over W Quebec/E Ontario which would keep places like BOS frigid. ggem even looks great for down here in nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 After the gfs gave up on the idea of a bomb over the northern tier, its been steady...its gonna have weird thermal profiles in the next 2/3 days and wobble a bit. But guidance except the nam says the high is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I finally got to see the GGEM run, its a beast for us, widespread 6"+ for all of SNE, secondary takes off further southwest than the GFS and NAM. GGEM also has that stream of energy come from the polar disturbance and tries to phase with the southern stream disturbance. this is key for a strong secondary and then has mood snows afterwards on Monday as the upper level energy comes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GGEM sort of threads the needle on what it would take to get widespread 8-12" for SNE. The high pressure location on it is really key...it doesn't move east...it actually moves back west over W Quebec/E Ontario which would keep places like BOS frigid. Will, Two questions, with this high stronger will this make the storm further SE like a CT, MA special and not up in the Southern NH area? The second is should we not wait to see what the Euro shows? I thought this was the best model out of all of the forcast models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CMC has actually trended SE and weaker the past four runs, much like the rest of the guidance, but it doesn't look like its overamping on underamping the storm at all. Most consistent model by far w/ this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattm42 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 If the GFS/Canadian/Ukie models were to be close to verifying, what would i be looking at in the Lynn/Salem area? I work in a supermarket, and even if it's only a moderate storm we will get destroyed, so just curious lol. We always seem to do pretty well here, despite being on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Will, Two questions, with this high stronger will this make the storm further SE like a CT, MA special and not up in the Southern NH area? The second is should we not wait to see what the Euro shows? I thought this was the best model out of all of the forcast models? did you see the map i posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CMC has actually trended SE and weaker the past four runs, much like the rest of the guidance, but it doesn't look like its overamping on underamping the storm at all. Most consistent model by far w/ this system. At the surface the CMC is quite a bit stronger with the secondary surface low than the GFS, and stronger than its 12z run. It's also further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No just did, wow, wonder what the snow ratio would be maybe 6:1? That would definately give us about the 4-8'. nice Ratios look to be alot higher then that, esp in the early stages. See Wills sounding post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No just did, wow, wonder what the snow ratio would be maybe 6:1? That would definately give us about the 4-8'. nice 6:1? too low. the mets have been talking about how good the snow growth zone is so I think it is actually alot better as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow growth remains good until the end, esp NW. The earlier GFS runs did have the best lift below the snow growth zone once the meat of the storm came, but 00z did look better and might have the left deeper into the dendritic growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEFS are still a tad NW of the OP, but they have come SE. Spread has definitely tightened too on the H5 spaghetti charts...but it still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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