ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That is big ice verbatim after about 4-5" of snow over places like ORH. Hopefully that isn't what happens even though it might look pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Accurate - though it does look like some of the warmer GEFS members so it's not totally insane. Yes it does look like some of the more amped members which is about the only conclusion that can be drawn at this point. Seems like this early winter they've gone left or way right, but not just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The NAM is the Ron Washington of models. As well as Jerry's Leon Lett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That is big ice verbatim after about 4-5" of snow over places like ORH. Hopefully that isn't what happens even though it might look pretty. Kevin in his sleep is counting the broken tree limbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is it me or is that high pressure not even that ideally situated on the 0z nam seems like instead of centered to the N or even anchored NNE of New England, it is spread out to the northeast and east of New England , and sort of banana'd (if u will) to the west. Seems orientation shifts se enough to allow warmer e winds along coast, thou it gives impression at some latitude that east flow may not warm things above freezing for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is it me or is that high pressure not even that ideally situated on the 0z nam seems like instead of centered to the N or even anchored NNE of New England, it is spread out to the northeast and east of New England , and sort of banana'd (if u will) to the west. Seems orientation shifts se enough to allow warmer e winds along coast The issues started right away, check the differences between the old run and new run even inside of 24 hours. It's either off it's rocker or we're about the see the Tippy Supreme data ingest hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Kevin in his sleep is counting the broken tree limbs I don't think it's big ice down this way... but up in the Berkshires and Rt 2 area in Mass different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Wtbf? Maybe it's sniffing something but with this boreal cold and past history with these setups I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes it does look like some of the more amped members which is about the only conclusion that can be drawn at this point. Seems like this early winter they've gone left or way right, but not just right. Cold cut cold or meat grinder...take ur pick...or we "thread the needle" and get it intact enuf and still cold enuf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 An entertaining NAM run fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Nam was stronger by 4mb with the primary from 18z so that works into the further NW solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You said it may tick NW .......lol, That was a leap, But its the 84 hr Nam The surface low track isn't much different than 18z on the NAM. The warmth comes from the low center over the Lakes. This run there is more PVA in the eastern lakes, and therefore more surface deepening in that region and a stronger low level SE flow. The coastal low actually looks a touch stronger this run, but it is overwhelmed by the primary. This could and probably will change. If the northern stream s/w digs further south or contrarily if it stays further north and less involved, the thermal gradient over the northeast will be much different on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think if you live in the usual suspect areas that changeover, that run had to have you ever so slightly concerned. Still a plausible solution. The events closing in, I think these overnight runs will be pretty substantial in determining an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Incidentally, a lot of qpf is gone by the time the mids seriously torch. 84 hours looks dry here but snowing to maybe 79-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think people focus too much on the surface features. The upper levels drive the placement and strength of highs and lows, and therefore control wind direction and temperature advection... with a comparatively minor influence from terrain features and temperature gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 N of pike ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think people focus too much on the surface features. The upper levels drive the placement and strength of highs and lows, and therefore control wind direction and temperature advection... with a comparatively minor influence from terrain features and temperature gradients. Correct - 850mb lows over Michigan excite me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That Nam run must of spooked the GFS, Late INI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Correct - 850mb lows over Michigan excite me. shouldn't you have the background and skill set to depict whether or not an 850mb low can barrel into MI given the data/features at play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 shouldn't you have the background and skill set to depict whether or not an 850mb low can barrel into MI given the data/features at play?Are you being serious? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 shouldn't you have the background and skill set to depict whether or not an 850mb low can barrel into MI given the data/features at play? This one will... that's not really the issue. I'd like to see it redevelop east of us but I don't think that will happen. May wind up as more of a front end thump to sleet, freezing rain, and rain south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Are you being serious? Lol isn't that why they are tagged with a cool red thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This one will... that's not really the issue. I'd like to see it redevelop east of us but I don't think that will happen. May wind up as more of a front end thump to sleet, freezing rain, and rain south of the Pike. Your solution is very plausible but some don't like to except that could be a viable outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 isn't that why they are tagged with a cool red thing? Yeah...we do millions of meteorological calculations in our heads per second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This one will... that's not really the issue. I'd like to see it redevelop east of us but I don't think that will happen. May wind up as more of a front end thump to sleet, freezing rain, and rain south of the Pike. so there is no way it redevelops sooner, if the confluence is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah...we do millions of meteorological calculations in our heads per second. The red taggers are just here for fun, they already know what's going to happen in 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I am surprised you would even ask. Of course he knows... he sure as heck doesn't enjoy explaining it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah...we do millions of meteorological calculations in our heads per second. Shhhhhhhh......you weren't suppose to tell them that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Your solution is very plausible but some don't like to except that could be a viable outcome read back a few pages, I said a NW solution is certainly plausible. that is not the point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah...we do millions of meteorological calculations in our heads per second. super computer. rewind your program a few days then. some of us are still stuck in Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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