ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 pretty stout Ens agreement on QPF. Maybe you are right but I agree this is that model mayhem day. SLP means little when you throw Gulf moisture over the top of Arctic air. I remember a local Met (Bob Copeland) getting burnt big-time had to be mid-late '70's maybe early '80's. I wish I could remember the year and the storm. What I do remember is the way he tried to backtrack and describe why the snow had gone from 2-4" predicted to a foot region-wide. Very similar. I know Bob used to post here, well on Eastern. Wish he still did. Where have all the good ones gone? I digress, open eyes with the understanding that this has more upscale to it and miracles do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs has been overdone on qpf almost every one this winter 4 straight storms it was too wet at ALB. Almost 50% on average. Incidentally, some places just NE of ALB probably just doubled their seasonal snowfall in a good snow squall that came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I remember a local Met (Bob Copeland) getting burnt big-time had to be mid-late '70's maybe early '80's. I wish I could remember the year and the storm. What I do remember is the way he tried to backtrack and describe why the snow had gone from 2-4" predicted to a foot region-wide. Very similar. I know Bob used to post here, well on Eastern. Wish he still did. Where have all the good ones gone? I digress, open eyes with the understanding that this has more upscale to it and miracles do happen.He used to post? That is cool. I liked himNoyes used to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 He used to post? That is cool. I liked him Noyes used to post There are many that did. Paul Kocin would during the blizzard threats of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Quite late to the party so probably discussed but anyways, there is some pretty staggering similarities with regards to today's 12z Euro and 18z NAM with regards to how the northern and southern stream energies evolve and how/where they end up phasing. Both models are also fairly similar with regards to strength of each of these features. This isn't trying to justify their solution(s) will verify but when looking into the various models for some sort of consistency/agreement, it's always a positive to find something. The GFS is just worlds different with each feature and the progression of these features and the overall pattern. Even the 12z GFS ensembles seemed to be all over the place with little consistency or agreement within it's own members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 4 straight storms it was too wet at ALB. Almost 50% on average. Incidentally, some places just NE of ALB probably just doubled their seasonal snowfall in a good snow squall that came through. All models have struggled kind of badly....euro has been good inside of 36-48. A couple of days ago we had a pretty substantial low. Now it's a 1/2 punch which IMHO more times than not is the model compromise to some other solution. Everything else has been sheared. This does have more going for it, or at least more modeled going for it at 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Right now it looks like its a lack of ROAB site information on the shortwave and its true characteristics for the models to handle. And the main shortwave of interest is over Northwestern Provinces of Canada currently and its true speed and strength won't be determined until 24 hours out away from the event itself. ALthough models seem to do better with these systems than ones over NE Pacific Ocean, my best guess is the degree of digging is modeled to be a lot less than actuality will have it. Case in point would be the Boxing Day Snowstorm of 2010, in that storm we were waiting for the trailing shortwave to phase with the southern stream system and allow a closer to coastline approach by the surface low. In this setup we are in the same predicament, a lot of models are showing an intense shortwave in the northern stream, some of us thought of triple phase because this is part of the polar vortex system construed over the central Canadian Prairies. However further analysis and some confirmation suggests this is still northern stream energy which has spilled over the top of the PNA ridge in place over the western US and western Canada. Anyways back to my main point, we have a faster than normal flow in the northern stream, therefore I expect more of a digging to the southeast of the main vortex that is screwing us up with flooding warm air in the mid levels and the 700mb and 850mb lows moving too far to the northwest so warm air floods the coastline. Instead this system digs further south and we end up with a stronger system. Also of note is that this low strengthens at the coastline, and therefore does not weaken, in which the QPF should increase on the northwest side of the surface low if the transfer happens faster than predicted by the models, however this seems less likely as the northern stream system remains closed for a time over the Great Lakes. I have no clue what in the end will happen, but we should have a better idea within the next 36 hours, enough leeway to get the warnings out and headlines out when needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The burst of snow we're having here now may well be like the type that comes on Saturday--big ol' feathers quickly covering everything. The type that just blows on the smallest gust of wind. Shades of thngs to come....about 1/4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WTF is that kindergarten looking disaster of a map(s)? Where do those come from? Whatever TWC has become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like the 00z nam has realized that it is fooking cold on saturday...1036mb high wedging into new england at 12z sat...single digits just nw of Boston like euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like the 00z nam has realized that it is fooking cold on saturday...1036mb high wedging into new england at 12z sat...single digits just nw of Boston like euro shows its certainly eases/lifts the vortex up north out a bit. Im curious if it does too much, then the main piece will come NW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yea there is hardly a secondary coastal here late in the run. Mostly a primary across the great lakes, Winds turning southeast and southern new england changing over here sat night Secondary gets going but its cutting across NJ Looks like those warm GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 less overrunning too on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL the NAM. im not good enough to know if it makes sense. please take it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is light snow Saturday than quick transition to sleet and even rain south of the Pike. Seems similar to some of the GEFS ensembles. With the mid level lows not closing east of SNE it's curtains for many of us if we want sig snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 im not good enough to know if it makes sense. please take it away. Considering it took the Feb blizzard over Cape Cold like 36hrs before it hit, I would have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 nam hits central and western MA pretty good.. Weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yea there is hardly a secondary coastal here late in the run. Mostly a primary across the great lakes, Winds turning southeast and southern new england changing over here sat night Secondary gets going but its cutting across NJ Looks like those warm GEFS members Pretty much the 0z NAM is why I can't get terribly excited about D3+ threats. There were marked changes very early in the run with the handling at 500mb that played out later. How that compares to other runs no idea, or whether it'll carry through or this is the NAM being the NAM. It gets warm all the way up to the VT/NY border and blasts the 0c up into SNH and SVT very quickly after mood snows Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 honestly, who cares what the NAM shows. good or bad. it's just a notch above completely meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 hr 66 at h5 is NOT a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is light snow Saturday than quick transition to sleet and even rain south of the Pike. Seems similar to some of the GEFS ensembles. With the mid level lows not closing east of SNE it's curtains for many of us if we want sig snow. NAM meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 LOL the NAM. You said it may tick NW .......lol, That was a leap, But its the 84 hr Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 honestly, who cares what the NAM shows. good or bad. it's just a notch above completely meaningless. I may entertain it inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's either the NAM being the NAM or the beginning of the end for this one...neither would surprise me. (and if it rains, DT will be insufferable.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You said it may tick NW .......lol, That was a leap, But its the 84 hr Nam The NAM is the Ron Washington of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Considering it took the Feb blizzard over Cape Cold like 36hrs before it hit, I would have my doubts. yea I know its pretty chitty in its long range. but just trying to figure out if moving out the vortex up north makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 honestly, who cares what the NAM shows. good or bad. it's just a notch above completely meaningless. Accurate - though it does look like some of the warmer GEFS members so it's not totally insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's either the NAM being the NAM or the beginning of the end for this one...neither would surprise me. (and if it rains, DT will be insufferable.) Well find out in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 yea I know its pretty chitty in its long range. but just trying to figure out if moving out the vortex up north makes any sense. Well it will move out. It does on all models, but NAM is pretty aggressive. I really could care less what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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