December 14/15 winter storm threat

[Clinch Leatherwood]

There are some very warm (and wet) members. 

 

Which are no doubt skewing the mean dramatically.  

[powderfreak]

Some of those members on ewall are ridiculous.

Huh, well I'll be. Those are interesting to say the least, a few even change me over lol.

[powderfreak]

Which are no doubt skewing the mean dramatically.

Maybe but they are all pretty juicy and NW.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah some of those members seem OTL.

[Typhoon Tip]

I believe there is some chance that this jolts back a bit more intense on the 00z guidance ...or perhaps through tomorrow's runs.  

[powderfreak]

What type of resolution are the Ensembles? Are they the same as the OP? I was thinking if they are coarser they may be acting on something phantom that the higher res OPs are better at resolving.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

the NW members seem to substantially erode the high. with a poor atlantic, its certainly within reason.

[CoastalWx]

What type of resolution are the Ensembles? Are they the same as the OP? I was thinking if they are coarser they may be acting on something phantom that the higher res OPs are better at resolving.

 

You would be correct in that it would bring lows too far NW, but there are fundamental differences at H5 too. Some of these are stronger with the srn stream.

[dryslot]

18z GEFS is an uptick in qpf from the 12z run for sure

[powderfreak]

You would be correct in that it would bring lows too far NW, but there are fundamental differences at H5 too. Some of these are stronger with the srn stream.

Yeah I figured they might be worse off at handling the interaction between the southern and northern streaming it's a coarser grid.

However it's interesting that we are still like 3-4 days out and that's a lot of time in model world...maybe it shifts back a little stronger like the runs when tippy started the thread. I still think the status quo and weaker wave like the ECM had is the way to go...these things have been getting tossed through the meat grinder in this fast flow.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I figured they might be worse off at handling the interaction between the southern and northern streaming it's a coarser grid.

However it's interesting that we are still like 3-4 days out and that's a lot of time in model world...maybe it shifts back a little stronger like the runs when tippy started the thread. I still think the status quo and weaker wave like the ECM had is the way to go...these things have been getting tossed through the meat grinder in this fast flow.

 

You may be right, but the origins of these things usually have some juice. We'll have good WAA over an arctic dome.  Regardless..it wouldn't shock me of a status quo..but guessing a bit NW of the 12z euro and 18z GFS is my guess.  I do think the 18z GEFS may be overdone.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah I figured they might be worse off at handling the interaction between the southern and northern streaming it's a coarser grid.

However it's interesting that we are still like 3-4 days out and that's a lot of time in model world...maybe it shifts back a little stronger like the runs when tippy started the thread. I still think the status quo and weaker wave like the ECM had is the way to go...these things have been getting tossed through the meat grinder in this fast flow.

I remember this happened with 10/30/11 when I first was up in VT. OP guidance was steadfast in keep the low inside the BM while a 1025mb high was to the NE of New England.

 

Up until the event, most ensemble guidance was farther NW near the elbow of the Cape, eroding the high quicker. 

 

Guess which one was right.

[Tropopause_Fold]

i know there's really no support for it right now...but there is part of me that wonders if we end up with a weak wave shooting seaward south of us...and then maybe another anafrontal type deal with something moving off the SE us coast. 

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a list of positives (from a snow/ice lovers point of view) and negative for the upcoming event as it appears on guidance IMHO:

 

 

Positives:

 

1. Arctic dome of high pressure (and its location). Truly arctic air over a snowpack...will help with both thermal gradient and of course keeping the region cold enough for a lot of frozen precip, even if the mid-levels begin to warm.

 

2. Southern stream energy with gulf connection. The origin of the energy is southern stream out of the four corners region and it taps into some gulf moisture and very warm air that has been stuck under the SE ridge. This generally will not produce a completely paltry storm from a QPF standpoint. I won't be surprised if some of the overrunning modeled becomes heavier on models as we close in on the event when you combine this point with point #1.

 

3. This is semi-related to point #1...but snowgrowth depth. The depth of the snowgrowth region appears to start off really deep and this should help any lift maximize the efficiency in producing snow. It's the type of stuff that will sometimes produce 1/2 SM SN with 15-20 dbz echoes.

 

Negatives:

 

1. Fast flow with no blocking. This is really the only negative in my book. The fast flow may try and put this thing through a meat grinder too much and reduce the system. This would have to happen to an extreme though IMHO to overcome the positives. We are definitely putting the shortwave through a meat grinder...and that is not a bad thing by itself. If it weren't we'd probably see a big cutter with the way the Atlantic is. Its just we want to avoid overdoing the meat grinding. This is not a pattern that produces big coastal lows that drop 18" of snow to a large area. It just isn't...so if you are still hoping for that, you will almost certainly be disappointed this weekend. The fast flow also keeps the mid-levels out of the SW which may cause ptype issues further south...another negative for snow lvers.

 

1A. I'll call this point 1A since its closely related...but the lack of phasing between the two streams could be enough fo a hinderance to shear this out a little more...with the northern stream acting as a "kicker" to the lead wave. But again, this will have to happen extreme enough to overcome the positives which include a good moisture source and a premade tight thermal gradient to work on.

 

 

 

So we'll see how this trends.

[powderfreak]

Great post, Will.

[dryslot]

Very good summary Will

[RobbieL241]

Everybody say hello to WS Electra 

 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

i know there's really no support for it right now...but there is part of me that wonders if we end up with a weak wave shooting seaward south of us...and then maybe another anafrontal type deal with something moving off the SE us coast. 

 

 

We're thinking along the same lines I think....I'm just not buying the amped solutions right now.

Also agree on your last comment, very hard to follow much lately.

[SnowMan]

doubtful, you have been banging that drum over and over but nobody else misses anything. Give us some credit.

Typical model waffles, tomorrow is the beginning of honing in, GEFS may have begun that trend.

was gonna say it could start with the 0z suite tonight

[Ginx snewx]

We're thinking along the same lines I think....I'm just not buying the amped solutions right now.

Also agree on your last comment, very hard to follow much lately.

Lol dude you commented on every run today.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Lol dude you commented on every run today.

I made fewer posts all day than many make in a half hour. Most pointing out that the GFS is very unlikely to be right, the amped gefs less so. We've ended up with cutters or weak sauce offshore. I don't see this being any different.

If the models hold serve tonight into the morning great I will get on the days and days of snow train. We just seem to lose many threats at this range or ad least greatly diminish them.

[SnowMan]

I made fewer posts all day than many make in a half hour. Most pointing out that the GFS is very unlikely to be right, the amped gefs less so. We've ended up with cutters or weak sauce offshore. I don't see this being any different.

If the models hold serve tonight into the morning great I will get on the days and days of snow train. We just seem to lose many threats at this range or ad least greatly diminish them.

Seems as though you are trying to wish cast this further SE despite the fact that it has remained consistent and even ticked a little more NW

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Seems as though you are trying to wish cast this further SE despite the fact that it has remained consistent and even ticked a little more NW

It's almost four days away. Average error is probably 150-200 miles. Pretty much not a single system has been pinned at this range. But good luck with thinking this is the one. Maybe it is.

[SouthCoastMA]

Seems as though you are trying to wish cast this further SE despite the fact that it has remained consistent and even ticked a little more NW

The models have remained consistent? Yeah don't think so

[SnowMan]

It's almost four days away. Average error is probably 150-200 miles. Pretty much not a single system has been pinned at this range. But good luck with thinking this is the one. Maybe it is.

what other storm has had this type of model support this far out so far this season?

[ctsnowstorm628]

It's almost four days away. Average error is probably 150-200 miles. Pretty much not a single system has been pinned at this range. But good luck with thinking this is the one. Maybe it is.

0z Sunday is less than 3 days away.

 

But I agree this thing will move around some more.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The models have remained consistent? Yeah don't think so

Miller B ripping through New England?

Let's see what tonight brings. Persistence favors weak sauce but maybe the pattern is changing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

0z Sunday is less than 3 days away.

 

But I agree this thing will move around some more.

 

yea. and overrunning gets in the z hours of Saturday. but the main piece's shortwaves aren't in the conus yet. I really cant rule out a NW solution or sheered out SE solution.

[Ginx snewx]

I made fewer posts all day than many make in a half hour. Most pointing out that the GFS is very unlikely to be right, the amped gefs less so. We've ended up with cutters or weak sauce offshore. I don't see this being any different.

If the models hold serve tonight into the morning great I will get on the days and days of snow train. We just seem to lose many threats at this range or ad least greatly diminish them.

pretty stout Ens agreement on QPF. Maybe you are right but I agree this is that model mayhem day. SLP means little when you throw Gulf moisture over the top of Arctic air.

[Cold Miser]

Everybody say hello to WS Electra 

 

WTF is that kindergarten looking disaster of a map(s)? Where do those come from?