Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Good luck to everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How do we end up with mostly rain on the south shore when a strong cold high is in a great place? Fresh arctic air, high in perfect position feeding low DP air. Historically today is the day models lose original ideas, back off some, posters freak, some Mets meh. Its a broken record, lets see what happens tomorrow and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 With the 700mb low tracking well to the northwest of the region and with the southern stream shortwave dampening out before heading into the region, chances are our hopes of a big storm are dwindling with every passing breath. Although I will hold out until the Friday 00z runs before abandoning ship. I really thought we would get a blockbuster storm before the pattern would break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Checking out the 00z's 12, 24, 36 hours and comparing those to the like-intervals of the 12z run, and it appears the 12z initialized the Pacific about 6dm shallower with the southern component of the wave(s), and about half as potent with the northern component v-max. That probable in my mind as to why the 00z was more coherent than the some of these runs since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Fresh arctic air, high in perfect position feeding low DP air. Historically today is the day models lose original ideas, back off some, posters freak, some Mets meh. Its a broken record, lets see what happens tomorrow and Friday. Yea, could be the prototypical day3-4 dampening of the potential.....we'll see, but given the background players this season, I'd favor a more meager system....by meager, I mean under 10"....relatively speaking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 With the 700mb low tracking well to the northwest of the region and with the southern stream shortwave dampening out before heading into the region, chances are our hopes of a big storm are dwindling with every passing breath. Although I will hold out until the Friday 00z runs before abandoning ship. I really thought we would get a blockbuster storm before the pattern would break down. Nickel and dime pattern...which I will gladly take since it is only December 11 and about to be snowy and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Man, I do hope Box is right.....that is the kind of scenario that I'm clamoring for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nickel and dime pattern...which I will gladly take since it is only December 11 and about to be snowy and cold The death band crowd does not care while a lot of us enjoyed yesterday immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yea, could be the prototypical day3-4 dampening of the potential.....we'll see, but given the background players this season, I'd favor a more meager system....by meager, I mean under 10"....relatively speaking here. sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 They said up to a foot of snow west of the coastal front...seems early for that kinda talk...but I like it lol My read on that was near but on the cold side of the front--not 100 miles from it. I think we'll be holding out our hopes for good ratios for reasonable accumulations out this way and up by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Forky's calling for 3-6 for NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I find it very difficult to see how a cstl front gets to 495. Not with this deal. I think that's a NW-most stopping point. The discussion indicates the author is NOT totally sold on transition/low level cold being scoured out completely. 95 might ended up being the spot instead. More and more to me it looks like by the time that intrusion of warmer air gets in on the eastern CP, a good bit of precip has already gotten down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 My read on that was near but on the cold side of the front--not 100 miles from it. I think we'll be holding out our hopes for good ratios for reasonable accumulations out this way and up by you. your backyard is 100 miles from it lol...not mine. I could be OK if the CF made it to 495... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 With the 700mb low tracking well to the northwest of the region and with the southern stream shortwave dampening out before heading into the region, chances are our hopes of a big storm are dwindling with every passing breath. Although I will hold out until the Friday 00z runs before abandoning ship. I really thought we would get a blockbuster storm before the pattern would break down. I think the blockbuster ship set sail after the 00z run. Still many hours of enjoyable flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'd kill for an I95 CF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 your backyard is 100 miles from it lol...not mine. I could be OK if the CF made it to 495... I thought you were up by Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'd kill for an I95 CF... And then have to enjoy the storm from a cell shared with Aaron Hernandez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I thought you were up by Dendrite. No, I think an hour south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've never seen anything like it..Everyone is so amped up and excited about a long duration 5-10 inch snow event and one poster who has a cold and in a bad mood, comes in and just downs everything He said it could end up a 1-3" deal then ice or rain. And he's right. Guidance shows generally light QPF with modest upper level support... and it could trend even worse. On top of that, it's possible temps become marginal at some point as well. You sem to live more for the emotional high that comes with hyping a storm than for the actual storm itself. Some other people enjoy the challenge of trying to pin things down and get a forecast as accurate as possible. We can coexist. Skepticism and caution do not necessarily ruin anticipation and excitement. I could see 1-2" or 6-10". Inter and intra model agreement lends some confidence to a plowable snowfall, but it's still too early to expect it I think. I still haven't had much more than 1" in ALB, so I'm setting 2" as my hopeful threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not much change in the 18Z GFS at first glance other than some noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It seems that latitude is very important this time ala 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Fresh arctic air, high in perfect position feeding low DP air. Historically today is the day models lose original ideas, back off some, posters freak, some Mets meh. Its a broken record, lets see what happens tomorrow and Friday. My thought as well. The past several years have shown that if you have the ingredients in the mix to not completely write it off. However, the red taggers have a job to do, so I understand the conservative approach. I don't think anyone is canceling the storm, but they're not going to hype something that's not there (yet). That would be irresponsible for them to do with professional consequences that most of us don't bear. If this doesn't look better by the 13/00z (gives us 3 more runs) run then it's reasonable to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It seems that latitude is very important this time ala 20 years ago. Looks like everyone below the pike is tainted after some front end snows. All in all, not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 And then have to enjoy the storm from a cell shared with Aaron Hernandez... I'm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 i initially liked this setup because models dug the northern stream shortwave into the lower Great Lakes and phased the pieces of energies, now this northern stream shortwave doesn't dig past Georgian Bay, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 And then have to enjoy the storm from a cell shared with Aaron Hernandez... I'm down. Ladies and gentlemen, we present elemental energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Soundings are saturated to 250mb Sat. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Soundings are saturated to 250mb Sat. LOL. People don't realize the potential here...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Soundings are saturated to 250mb Sat. LOL. cash money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like the 18z GFS solution...a little juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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