Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That seems reasonable considering your general/statewide audience. I'm just not certain about the mix aspect. It seems like it would be more frozen for most of the state and mix seems to imply rain. i think of mix as anything that's non-snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That seems reasonable considering your general/statewide audience. I'm just not certain about the mix aspect. It seems like it would be more frozen for most of the state and mix seems to imply rain. Yeah to the general public ..mix means plain rain..which has 0 chance of happening inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That seems reasonable considering your general/statewide audience. I'm just not certain about the mix aspect. It seems like it would be more frozen for most of the state and mix seems to imply rain. Really? I feel wintry mix implies snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. I doubt rain up along the Mass border but S & E of 84 it's certainly possible. This may remain all snow but with the 850/700mb lows well west to expect all frozen south of the Pike is ballsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 it's going to snow..Amounts and intensities TBD hey! agree. LOL. that's like twice in the last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like the graphic. Maybe you can photoshop Kevin's head on there. He could have a couple of bald domes off to the NE of the skyline...one for Kevin and one for me, lol. I'm happy with 2-4 even. I gotta get my son out in it..lol. My son is turning into a weenie like his Dad...he was out playing in the snow all day yesterday and kept complaining when I told him he had to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah to the general public ..mix means plain rain..which has 0 chance of happening inland nah...i think the general public knows that mix means ugly precip. they think rain means rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 BOX is smoking something. I hope they embarrass us by being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Before I read the BOX disco's now I always scroll down to see who wrote them first..to determine how much stock to put in them when i do read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah to the general public ..mix means plain rain..which has 0 chance of happening inland Huh? Rain means rain. Also... as an FYI... 99% of the state does not live >1000 feet so I don't even understand what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Dear God... Kevin clearly wrote the BOX AFD. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 HaHa! I've been waiting patiantly for us to get Close enough to the event so that we can see what the NAM says... And BAM! Last Frame at 84 Hours has a Secondary Low! With the 850 0C staying in the middle of CT/RI. Probably still goes a bit north of that but the fact that it shows a Secondary is nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Huh? Rain means rain. Also... as an FYI... 99% of the state does not live >1000 feet so I don't even understand what you're talking about. When the word mix is tossed around on air..inevitably most thinks NBD and wet..Ask around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I find it very difficult to see how a cstl front gets to 495. Not with this deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah to the general public ..mix means plain rain..which has 0 chance of happening inland What?! Rain means rain, mix means mix, and snow means snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I find it very difficult to see how a cstl front gets to 495. Not with this deal. Based on some forecasts..it seems it may make it all the way to ALB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Really? I feel wintry mix implies snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. I doubt rain up along the Mass border but S & E of 84 it's certainly possible. This may remain all snow but with the 850/700mb lows well west to expect all frozen south of the Pike is ballsy. Maybe you're right - I took a poll of non-weather folks here in my office and they thought a mix implied snow and sleet. Me personally, I think of rain & snow when I hear mix. Maybe I had too many bad winters in the 80s or that one class I took in broadcast met is clouding my mind, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When the word mix is tossed around on air..inevitably most thinks NBD and wet..Ask around No... no one thinks that. People think... ugh a sloppy storm. So, as it stands right now the forecast is for light snow and then a wintry mix. That's pretty typical for storms in SNE. Maybe you're new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You are not getting rain. Lock this post up. Mike's weather anxiety helps burn all the caffeine out of his system. Tell him he's either going over to pl/fzra or that qpf looks to be meager up this way. He'll thank you later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess I'm the only one who found the 12z Euro underwhelming. Nope...here I thought I was the only one. Seems very possible that by the time any significant precip makes it's way in a large portion of the state is torching in the mid-levels. Just look at the NAM. Sure it shows maybe 3-6" before taint...but if you apply the NAM QPF fudge factor it's more like 1-4". I'm on board for the cold and some light accumulations. Good for setting the holiday mood. But calls for 6-10" and debates about whether WWA or WSW are more appropriate seem a bit premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Maybe you're right - I took a poll of non-weather folks here in my office and they thought a mix implied snow and sleet. Me personally, I think of rain & snow when I hear mix. Maybe I had too many bad winters in the 80s or that one class I took in broadcast met is clouding my mind, lol. Yeah most people dread the "wintry mix" because it's a pain. Most would prefer all snow from that I can tell. Also... people have some concept of geography and climate. People along the shoreline when they hear a forecast of wintry mix likely expect a change to rain while people who live in the hills (even people who have no interest in wx) generally understand that they receive more snow up there than the lowlanders do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You are not getting rain. Lock this post up. I'm not expecting any. Would you stop with the BOX stuff..it's just one small voice What the hell? I'm just posting the official government forecast and you get all hot and bothered. I didn't see you get your panties in a bunch when I posted their HWO that called for a significant storm a few posts back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When the word mix is tossed around on air..inevitably most thinks NBD and wet..Ask around It's certainly a possibility, and with the public opinion you HAVE to play it safe. Nothing wrong at all with saying there is a potential for "mix" state wide at this juncture, even if the probabilities of a mix occuring are much higher on the coast than they are inland. Also mix..is a mix. Nobody thinks snowstorm when they hear the word, but people certainly see it as something that can cause a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I find it very difficult to see how a cstl front gets to 495. Not with this deal. They said up to a foot of snow west of the coastal front...seems early for that kinda talk...but I like it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 BOX on the 4PM update. Not sure the SE flow will make it as far as they say it will, but everything else is ok: BRINGING IT TOGETHER...EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONGAND AHEAD OF THE LOW. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE AROUND SE NEW ENGLAND.LOOKED CLOSELY AT 2M TEMPS ESPECIALLY THE GFS AS THE LOCATION OF THELOW CENTER MATCHES WELL WITH THE CANADIAN/UKMET. ECMWF REMAINS THETIMING OUTLIER /LAGGED/. INTERIOR TO REMAIN COLD WITH THE DRAINAGEFLOW /SFC WINDS BACKED NORTH/. CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL TRANSITIONTO A WINTRY MIX /SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN/ TO RAIN ACROSS THEIMMEDIATE SHORES AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS. SO SHOULD SEE SOMEINITIAL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN DISSIPATING WITH USHERANCE OF WARMERAIR ONSHORE. LIKELY TO BE A BATTLE OF PRECIP TYPES ALONG A COASTALFRONT IN PROXIMITY TO SHORES /PER THICKNESSES/ ROUGHLY AROUND ANDEAST OF I-84 TO I-90 TO I-495 WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMS.COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS EXCEEDING A FOOT WEST OF THEAFOREMENTIONED LOCATION OF THE COASTAL FRONT.LITTLE BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM...SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK MOVING.LOOKING AT IMPACTS BEGINNING SATURDAY AND INTENSIFYING INTO SATURDAYNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE REAR SHOULDWIPE EVERYTHING OUT INTO SUNDAY. THIS BEING THE CASE FOLLOWING THECONSENSUS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WHICH AGREE ON TIMING.THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ROUGHLY +1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION PER THEGEFS OF PWATS AND BOTH H85 MOISTURE FLUX AND V-WIND COMPONENT. AS AFINAL NOTE...CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE TOP-3 EVENTS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALSNOWS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ICING /THE TOP EVENT BEING JANUARY 11TH2009/. THESE TWO POINTS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM WILL BE ASIGNIFICANT EVENT. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess I'm the only one who found the 12z Euro underwhelming. No you're not. The major storm idea is losing steam. At least it will be a festive weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm really worried about that bowling ball of a shortwave in Manitoba, Canada screwing things up for us. Mid level flow drops to southerly and floods the region with warm air as both at 700mb and 850mb flood with warmth and then at the surface as easterly winds flood the coastal plain with 40F+ degree sea surface temperatures. Also there is a threat for ocean effect snows before all of this happens as arctic front sags southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Mike's weather anxiety helps burn all the caffeine out of his system. Tell him he's either going over to pl/fzra or that qpf looks to be meager up this way. He'll thank you later. LOL. I've tempered quite a bit. My qpf anxiety, not my coffee consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How do we end up with mostly rain on the south shore when a strong cold high is in a great place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 BOX on the 4PM update. Not sure the SE flow will make it as far as they say it will, but everything else is ok: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Is Box looking at time lagged data?? Someone have them hit refresh because they are seemingly viewing yesterday's runs. 1)As modeled, no one is getting 1'+ 2) The cf will not penetrate route 128....probably not very close, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I hope we deal with a rain/snow line TBH....the protracted, 5" fluff fetishes are a consolation prize for me. Give me a shot at playing weenie roulette with the cf, and cashing in 1' of mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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