Patrick-02540 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So this sounds like a 5-10 inch long duration snowstorm. Just a masterpiece Inches and inches, for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 snowpack fetish talk commence. Phil thanks for the answer...saw the Euro not showing much Saturday...but the others do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Oh I agree. My response to him isn't to imply there isn't going to be snow on the ground. I feel like sometimes this becomes a war of attrition. Anyone who has been on here for years knows I'm about as big as a snow fan as their is. Kevin likes extremes and likes to exaggerate potential. So I was pointing out why something like 12" OTG Monday is unlikely. More like half or 60% of that which is in line with your bolded quote above. If this system trends noticebly juicier in the next 36 hours, then I would agree that 12" is more fathomable. As long as there is playable snow, sledding, cross country etc its all good. Those who preen for mega death bands etc will have to wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well don't forget the Lake aided squalls/snow showers tonight with arctic front You are like a machine...you don't stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess I'm the only one who found the 12z Euro underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I was waiting for Ryan to come in. He hates long duration events and I knew when he saw the qpf amounts he'd find a way to make it sound like a 2-4 inch deal i remember he did the same thing in another long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess I'm the only one who found the 12z Euro underwhelming. Nope. Not even from a NNE prospective...just overall for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still amped compared to OP guidance. Looks just SE of ACK. Edit: Actually fairly similar to the OP Euro...slightly NW maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro ensembles still amped compared to OP guidance. Looks just SE of ACK. Flag that this could be more potent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro ensembles def weaker than 00z, but seems sim to the op..maybe a little more amped up. A bit west of the op. Still looks like a decent QPF deal..not robust, but might be better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Flag that this could be more potent? See my edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 System coming out from near the Gulf moving just SE of ACK with an arctic dome overhead. You're always going to have precip with that. I have a feeling models may tick NW or stronger starting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 System coming out from near the Gulf moving just SE of ACK with an arctic dome overhead. You're always going to have precip with that. I have a feeling models may tick NW or stronger starting tomorrow. I really do think it'll trend at least stronger....don't know about NW with that high placement, but the baroclinic zone is pretty stout over the adjacent water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I really do think it'll trend at least stronger....don't know about NW with that high placement, but the baroclinic zone is pretty stout over the adjacent water. Yeah that's why I said maybe a little stronger, because it may be tough for a NW tick...but there is enough time left that it's not out of the question. By default...a NW tick would imply stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro ensembles def weaker than 00z, but seems sim to the op..maybe a little more amped up. A bit west of the op. Still looks like a decent QPF deal..not robust, but might be better than the op. They are def a little juicier on the QPF maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 They are def a little juicier on the QPF maps. What're they showing? I only have MSLP/850 T/sfc T access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I really do think it'll trend at least stronger....don't know about NW with that high placement, but the baroclinic zone is pretty stout over the adjacent water. The upper levels will have to improve to see a strengthening of the surface low in the progs. But QPF could still end up being moderate with such a large temp gradient, even with a weak surface system. And as others have said, with a big fluff factor, 6-8" requires only modest QPF. I don't think I would anticipate anything greater than about 15:1 until the short term, because high ratios are relatively rare and fickle. I wish we could get the southern stream s/w to dig, strengthen, and swing underneath us, so we could add a period of more significant QPF associated with the coastal to a longer duration overrunning. That would bring with it temp issues as usual, but it would also obviously raise the high end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What're they showing? I only have MSLP/850 T/sfc T access. All of SNE is in the 0.50-0.75" shading except from PVD-GHG and southeast which is 0.75-1.00 shading. The 0.50 contour gets up to PWM-CON-DDH. The rest of NNE is 0.25-0.50 except northern maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess I'm the only one who found the 12z Euro underwhelming. i agree and two runs of it in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nice...yeah it looked a hair better on the ensembles from a MSLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 All of SNE is in the 0.50-0.75" shading except from PVD-GHG and southeast which is 0.75-1.00 shading. The 0.50 contour gets up to PWM-CON-DDH. The rest of NNE is 0.25-0.50 except northern maine. Nice. Solid for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The upper levels will have to improve to see a strengthening of the surface low in the progs. But QPF could still end up being moderate with such a large temp gradient, even with a weak surface system. And as others have said, with a big fluff factor, 6-8" requires only modest QPF. I don't think I would anticipate anything greater than about 15:1 until the short term, because high ratios are relatively rare and fickle. I wish we could get the southern stream s/w to dig, strengthen, and swing underneath us, so we could add a period of more significant QPF associated with the coastal to a longer duration overrunning. That would bring with it temp issues as usual, but it would also obviously raise the high end potential. Yeah, 500mb timing isnt ideal and the s/w strength is in question still. Def trending weaker in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nice...yeah it looked a hair better on the ensembles from a MSLP. Seems like we need some amplification to make things really good. While we will all get some mood snow on Saturday... it's quite possible mid level warmth flies in (like the GFS and some ensembles show) if the offshore low takes a while to get organized. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal to pingers/snizzle seems on the table IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nice. Solid for most. I find it tough to poo poo an event that will please everybody ok this board. Sure we'd like it a but stronger After the last two Decembers I will take this and run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lol told ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Seems like we need some amplification to make things really good. While we will all get some mood snow on Saturday... it's quite possible mid level warmth flies in (like the GFS and some ensembles show) if the offshore low takes a while to get organized. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal to pingers/snizzle seems on the table IMO. It def gets warm aloft for a time south of the pike, but for someone like myself..a low developing and riding near the Cape will flip me to rain. Personally I'd rather weaker for selfish reasons. I think my area would do well with cold air over the water and mood snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Seems like we need some amplification to make things really good. While we will all get some mood snow on Saturday... it's quite possible mid level warmth flies in (like the GFS and some ensembles show) if the offshore low takes a while to get organized. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal to pingers/snizzle seems on the table IMO. Can't say I'm even excited at this standpoint given model instability and the differences between the Ops and ENS. My gut says the ENS are overdone and this thing will trend weaker in time like everything else. But that doesn't mean a nice wintry event can't occur for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It def gets warm aloft for a time south of the pike, but for someone like myself..a low developing and riding near the Cape will flip me to rain. Personally I'd rather weaker for selfish reasons. I think my area would do well with cold air over the water and mood snows. The snowgrowth in this one looks optimal right now. That can change, but it definitely creates an entirely different feel for the event when it happens versus when you are getting snow grains or light baking soda falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The snowgrowth in this one looks optimal right now. That can change, but it definitely creates an entirely different feel for the event when it happens versus when you are getting snow grains or light baking soda falling from the sky. LOL light baking soda. NAM should satiate the QPF peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well most have 3-4 now and with low end warning of 5-9 that would get us close 3+5 = 12" Them is some good school in Tolland. They are def a little juicier on the QPF maps. Jucier is good. If we can sustain the decent ratios, many areas may attain warning criteria. I guess if we're taking 6 hour measurements, we can come up with higher amounts. Ground truth may lag behind that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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