Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A lot of people are looking for the huge bomb...12-18 type snows. We've certainly had our share in recent years. Wrong pattern and wrong thread if you are searching for that. This fast flow, gradient pattern with a SE ridge isn't going to produce big bombs. Yep. What this does produce is snows for all of us and a record amount of the lower 48 this early in the year. I'll take these small to mid sized events all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The euro is making its classic error of leaving too much energy behind in the Southwest...or in this case over northern Mexico. The southern stream will be much less sheared, giving us a more robust and consolidated storm. I tend to agree the run looked odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Warning criteria would be 8+ (9+ Litchfield and Berkshire counties) in a 24 hour period for this... might be tough to verify if the QPF is really spread across a 36hr period. I agree and wanted to add that it also includes 6" in a 12hr period: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/warningcriteria.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Am I looking at the wrong maps...where's the snow coming from on Saturday daytime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Am I looking at the wrong maps...where's the snow coming from on Saturday daytime? arctic boundary and some lift as the flow aloft flips around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yep. What this does produce is snows for all of us and a record amount of the lower 48 this early in the year. I'll take these small to mid sized events all day long '95-'96 was like that and we made out pretty well lol. I love these kind of potentially super cold events where it's snowing in the teens. That reminds me of winters at Lyndon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I agree and wanted to add that it also includes 6" in a 12hr period: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/warningcriteria.shtml Pet peeve of mine is watches or warnings issued for sub-criteria snowfall, I have no idea why haha. I like the 4-8 inch type advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 '95-'96 was like that and we made out pretty well lol. I love these kind of potentially super cold events where it's snowing in the teens. That reminds me of winters at Lyndon. With this one it'll be snowing up here at like 7-12 degrees, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Including otg now many places with near a foot otg by Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Including otg now many places with near a foot otg by Monday? Doubtful. That would mean widspread 8-10"...I'll take the under right now. But its not out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Doubtful. That would mean widspread 8-10"...I'll take the under right now. But its not out of the realm of possibility. Well most have 3-4 now and with low end warning of 5-9 that would get us close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well most have 3-4 now and with low end warning of 5-9 that would get us close Well some of that will settle/sublimate..it already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well most have 3-4 now and with low end warning of 5-9 that would get us close That 20:1 fluff from yesterday would get crushed to like 1-2" if you put a half inch of water weight on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well most have 3-4 now and with low end warning of 5-9 that would get us close No, they don't. A few isolated spots do. The fluff factor in that was high so it will be down to 2" by Saturday tops. And if we get a high fluff factor this weekend, that will compress too by Monday morning...so near a foot OTG Monday morning is unlikely in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'll take it and run in an all snow event. Prob low end warning amounts with those thermal profiles. Even if over that length of time? Seems pretty low impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No, they don't. A few isolated spots do. The fluff factor in that was high so it will be down to 2" by Saturday tops. And if we get a high fluff factor this weekend, that will compress too by Monday morning...so near a foot OTG Monday morning is unlikely in my view. For those isolated spots, 6-8" OTG would be possible by late Sunday and it's a start. That will compress too but you have to start with something. Of course it's all speculation now. It's amazing how a little snow can raise ones spirits. I've always liked this time of year when I have a solid covering but going to work in Springfield and there's very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Even if over that length of time? Seems pretty low impact low end warning 'amounts' I don't think implies we'll be under a warning. Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think my snowblower might have mice in it again... This looks like a nice, moderate event. Let's keep watching the models. A little more energy and we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 low end warning 'amounts' I don't think implies we'll be under a warning. Just my take. Yeah... good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No, they don't. A few isolated spots do. The fluff factor in that was high so it will be down to 2" by Saturday tops. And if we get a high fluff factor this weekend, that will compress too by Monday morning...so near a foot OTG Monday morning is unlikely in my view. He means his area has 3-4" on the ground. Right... snowpack after settling is almost completely derived of liquid in the pack. Say 0.1-0.2" liquid weight from yesterday, plus maybe a half inch from this upcoming event. I could see some spots being in the 6-9" depth range a day or two after this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For those isolated spots, 6-8" OTG would be possible by late Sunday and it's a start. That will compress too but you have to start with something. Of course it's all speculation now. It's amazing how a little snow can raise ones spirits. I've always liked this time of year when I have a solid covering but going to work in Springfield and there's very little. Yeah glad you guys are getting that feeling... that's how I felt all Thanksgiving week with 3-5" on the ground. Its not much but as long as the grass is covered and its white, it really does boost the wintery feel 100-fold. Plus, then when its cold you don't have to go outside absolutely freezing and look at frozen bare ground. Deep cold seems much more tolerable when there's snow on the ground...any snow. Of course we haven't really improved on that snow and are still sitting at 2-3" here at my place. Nice mood snow all day long today up here with orographic and lake effect streamers. Hopefully some good squalls tonight, BTV going with 2-4" but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would take 6 inches of snow over 6 inches of snow and then rain anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A type of event that wont disrupt travel plans but good enuff to keep snow hounds satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Also seems like every event is a notch better then the previous. Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For those isolated spots, 6-8" OTG would be possible by late Sunday and it's a start. That will compress too but you have to start with something. Of course it's all speculation now. It's amazing how a little snow can raise ones spirits. I've always liked this time of year when I have a solid covering but going to work in Springfield and there's very little. Oh I agree. My response to him isn't to imply there isn't going to be snow on the ground. I feel like sometimes this becomes a war of attrition. Anyone who has been on here for years knows I'm about as big as a snow fan as their is. Kevin likes extremes and likes to exaggerate potential. So I was pointing out why something like 12" OTG Monday is unlikely. More like half or 60% of that which is in line with your bolded quote above. If this system trends noticebly juicier in the next 36 hours, then I would agree that 12" is more fathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For those isolated spots, 6-8" OTG would be possible by late Sunday and it's a start. That will compress too but you have to start with something. Of course it's all speculation now. It's amazing how a little snow can raise ones spirits. I've always liked this time of year when I have a solid covering but going to work in Springfield and there's very little. Judging by the high Res Modis shot there is a weenie crap hole in the Pioneer valley, Scoob might be happy though http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2013_12_11_345&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true§or=USA4&resolution=250m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would take 6 inches of snow over 6 inches of snow and then rain anyday Would anybody here not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GGEM ensembles look decent for this weekend. Have clipper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Oh I agree. My response to him isn't to imply there isn't going to be snow on the ground. I feel like sometimes this becomes a war of attrition. Anyone who has been on here for years knows I'm about as big as a snow fan as their is. Kevin likes extremes and likes to exaggerate potential. So I was pointing out why something like 12" OTG Monday is unlikely. More like half or 60% of that which is in line with your bolded quote above. If this system trends noticebly juicier in the next 36 hours, then I would agree that 12" is more fathomable. Well don't forget the Lake aided squalls/snow showers tonight with arctic front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah glad you guys are getting that feeling... that's how I felt all Thanksgiving week with 3-5" on the ground. Its not much but as long as the grass is covered and its white, it really does boost the wintery feel 100-fold. Plus, then when its cold you don't have to go outside absolutely freezing and look at frozen bare ground. Deep cold seems much more tolerable when there's snow on the ground...any snow. Of course we haven't really improved on that snow and are still sitting at 2-3" here at my place. Nice mood snow all day long today up here with orographic and lake effect streamers. Hopefully some good squalls tonight, BTV going with 2-4" but we'll see. yeah, it just makes me want to be outside doing something. Walking around in the cold is different without the squeak or slide of having some snow out there. It'll be nice the next few days. I wish we had mood snow more often down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.