December 14/15 winter storm threat

[jamesnichols1989]

I want to finally see a northeasterly surface flow for once favoring coastal areas with some ocean enhancement.

[weathafella]

A lot of hours of snow on the euro.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Comparing the 12z and 0z Euro, this thing is significantly weaker from a MSLP standpoint. Goes to show how many things must go into producing a large event.

[weathafella]

Well euro gives all of us a solid snow cover by Monday.

[jamesnichols1989]

I'm not liking this time frame right now, but I'll give it another 24 hours before calling off the coastal storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

A lot of hours of snow on the euro.

Would you say days and days?

[weathafella]

A lot of hours of snow on the euro.Would you say days and days?

Well....Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday.

[Tropopause_Fold]

euro qpf 12z sat-00z mon (a few 6hr increments with like .01):

orh: .41"

bos: .50"

bdl: .40"

hya: .76" (about .4" frozen it would look like)

[ctsnowstorm628]

It's amazing that even in a setup where everything is shunted south of NE, Euro MOS still shows a sneaky 850mb warm layer (+2-3c) along the south coast. SST's FTL 

[Ginx snewx]

euro qpf 12z sat-00z mon (a few 6hr increments with like .01):

orh: .41"

bos: .50"

bdl: .40"

hya: .76" (about .4" frozen it would look like)

sign me up

[ORH_wxman]

euro qpf 12z sat-00z mon (a few 6hr increments with like .01):

orh: .41"

bos: .50"

bdl: .40"

hya: .76" (about .4" frozen it would look like)

 

 

I'll take it and run in an all snow event. Prob low end warning amounts with those thermal profiles.

[ORH_wxman]

It's amazing that even in a setup where everything is shunted south of NE, Euro MOS still shows a sneaky 850mb warm layer (+2-3c) along the south coast. SST's FTL 

 

 

The elevated warm layer has nothing to do with SSTs.

[Damage In Tolland]

So this sounds like a 5-10 inch long duration snowstorm. Just a masterpiece

[Ginx snewx]

So this sounds like a 5-10 inch long duration snowstorm. Just a masterpiece

Heavy blowing and drifting by Tuesday?

[Damage In Tolland]

Heavy blowing and drifting by Tuesday?

I envision a desolate rd in Voluntown by a barn drifted over

[Go Kart Mozart]

The euro is making its classic error of leaving too much energy behind in the Southwest...or in this case over northern Mexico.  The southern stream will be much less sheared, giving us a more robust and consolidated storm.

[N. OF PIKE]

euro qpf 12z sat-00z mon (a few 6hr increments with like .01):

orh: .41"

bos: .50"

bdl: .40"

hya: .76" (about .4" frozen it would look like)

are u fishin for a "meh"

 

lets see if it trends less....good thing BL temps aren't an issue or it would be meh city

[Tropopause_Fold]

are u fishin for a "meh"

 

lets see if it trends less....good thing BL temps aren't an issue or it would be meh city

i'm not fishing for anything. thought it would be nice to share the numbers. but thanks. lol.

[Ginx snewx]

I envision a desolate rd in Voluntown by a barn drifted over

as it should be.

[Ginx snewx]

i'm not fishing for anything. thought it would be nice to share the numbers. but thanks. lol.

I appreciate the hard numbers man.

[snowman21]

Warning criteria would be 8+ (9+ Litchfield and Berkshire counties) in a 24 hour period for this... might be tough to verify if the QPF is really spread across a 36hr period.

[moneypitmike]

 

Jesus, the Euro has much of NNE in the single digits Saturday with snow breaking out in the afternoon and evening. FLUFF.

 

Nice--we'll need that fluff to make up for possibly paltry qpf.

 

Well euro gives all of us a solid snow cover by Monday.

 

Solid--not very deep?

 

euro qpf 12z sat-00z mon (a few 6hr increments with like .01):

orh: .41"

bos: .50"

bdl: .40"

hya: .76" (about .4" frozen it would look like)

 

Given the possible long duration and continuous settling of what cmoes down along with the  'okay but not great' qpf amounts, we'll need some hefty ratios to make this a 'big storm'.  As mentioned earlier it will be impactful as it will require a substation public works commitment and limit a lot of folks traveling and shopping (not such a bad thing), but I don't anticipate the accumulations will be more than a moderate warning level.  At least for now.

 

You know what, given a couple days of impact, maybe-- just maybe --someone will benefit from buying a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread.   

[ORH_wxman]

The euro is making its classic error of leaving too much energy behind in the Southwest...or in this case over northern Mexico.  The southern stream will be much less sheared, giving us a more robust and consolidated storm.

 

 

Most guidance is leaving some of that energy behind. It is not just a Euro issue.

 

But it is a feature that is historically tough for models to resolve, so we could definitely see some more changes on future runs directly linked to that feature.

[ctsnowstorm628]

The elevated warm layer has nothing to do with SSTs.

Well, its at the surface too relatively speaking. 2C at the surface, -1C h92, and 2C at 850.

[moneypitmike]

Warning criteria would be 8+ (9+ Litchfield and Berkshire counties) in a 24 hour period for this... might be tough to verify if the QPF is really spread across a 36hr period.

 

This.

[SnowMan]

Nice--we'll need that fluff to make up for possibly paltry qpf.

 

 

Solid--not very deep?

 

 

Given the possible long duration and continuous settling of what cmoes down along with the  'okay but not great' qpf amounts, we'll need some hefty ratios to make this a 'big storm'.  As mentioned earlier it will be impactful as it will require a substation public works commitment and limit a lot of folks traveling and shopping (not such a bad thing), but I don't anticipate the accumulations will be more than a moderate warning level.  At least for now.

 

You know what, given a couple days of impact, maybe-- just maybe --someone will benefit from buying a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread. 

Yeah I am a little concerned about the QPF numbers, but at least snow will be in the air all weekend...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Not to start a Seinfeld type discussion but boy are some of "you people" spoiled.

I think we see the models maybe move to a more sheared system but it probably wont matter a ton for most of you.

 

Kevin gets his present early from Mother Nature...Days and Days of snow and everyone gets some white.

 

Not even Xmas yet and we've got snow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Warning criteria would be 8+ (9+ Litchfield and Berkshire counties) in a 24 hour period for this... might be tough to verify if the QPF is really spread across a 36hr period.

those numbers might be "inflated" a bit given they contain some 6-hour periods with like .05 or less i suppose. if you remove the less than .05 6 hrs, the meat of the qpf for most spots is 00z sun-18z sun. but we're starting to split hairs here

 

ORH: .36"

BOS: .44"

BDL: .27"

HYA: .70"

[mahk_webstah]

What is the possibility that the ecm starts to go back to the depictions 1-2 days ago?  IIRC sometimes the models have consensus days 6-7, then waffle a bit, and then come back closer to the earlier depiction.  And the ens have been west.  Is that possible or is the nature of the storm changing from what was depicted 1-2 days ago?

[ORH_wxman]

Not to start a Seinfeld type discussion but boy are some of "you people" spoiled.

I think we see the models maybe move to a more sheared system but it probably wont matter a ton for most of you.

 

Kevin gets his present early from Mother Nature...Days and Days of snow and everyone gets some white.

 

Not even Xmas yet and we've got snow.

 

 

A lot of people are looking for the huge bomb...12-18 type snows. We've certainly had our share in recent years.

 

Wrong pattern and wrong thread if you are searching for that. This fast flow, gradient pattern with a SE ridge isn't going to produce big bombs.