Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Check out this sounding on Saturday...this is what makes me extremely happy to see hours of overrunning if its anywhere close to accurate yeah that's a nice sounding. euro is slower so not as prolific. it doesn't really saturate until sometime after 00z (06z sounding is better). here's euro at 12z sat orh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I do hope that the lead s.w doesn't crap the bed...but I thought it was a wee bit stronger. To me, the flow ahead of it was flatter than 06z, but if you noticed..it tried to hang back a bit of moisture on Sunday. If that lead s/w can keep things going...then the levels near and above 850 won't warm as rapidly. This will be something where it may stay below 20 from Ray to ORH. Ukie looks nice at 72h...more robust than the GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyone know what the ratios on the GFS would be? May be one of those situations where .5-.75 inches of QPF produces a foot of snow in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't think Maine has to much to worry bout as far as snowfall totals here..plenty of cold air in place and lots of juice coming with this..It works..Great pattern in place for bigger events down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 anyone got start times in my area? Hosting an afternoon party, might have to make it a breakfast party...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyone know what the ratios on the GFS would be? May be one of those situations where .5-.75 inches of QPF produces a foot of snow in places. GFS would have very good ratios for a good chunk of the storm...they deteriorate a bit later on as the mid-levels warm, but probably at least half of the QPF on the GFS would be 18 to 1 ratios or better. But that type of stuff can change from run to run so figuring out ratios this far out is usually a futile effort. The very cold high pressure though that leaves much of the column wetbulb temps in the -10C to -18C range does give some increased confidence that we might see a period of higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You get the feeling Ray is pissed because he wants 16 inches in 4 hours. December 2011 and 2012 changed my life. The PTSD I developed from those months makes me appreciate anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS would have very good ratios for a good chunk of the storm...they deteriorate a bit later on as the mid-levels warm, but probably at least half of the QPF on the GFS would be 18 to 1 ratios or better. But that type of stuff can change from run to run so figuring out ratios this far out is usually a futile effort. The very cold high pressure though that leaves much of the column wetbulb temps in the -10C to -18C range does give some increased confidence that we might see a period of higher ratios. Thanks! Light density snow is so fun to play in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ggem is a nice snow event. mixes or chgs over at the coast for a bit but overall a nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ggem is a nice snow event. mixes or chgs over at the coast for a bit but overall a nice storm also has the saturday snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No warmth for days and days for the interior... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This progged mostly snow system illustrates the importance of good nearby cold. That makes all the difference in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 anyone got start times in my area? Hosting an afternoon party, might have to make it a breakfast party...lol I'm sure it would be fine. It's not like we're in Texas where a few inches of snow prevents people from getting around. If this ends up like yesterday's event where the average rate of accumulation is 1/3-1/2 inch/hour then roads will be fine just like they were yesterday. That said, I think 3 PM +/- a couple of hours for us is a good first guess for start time considering we're still three days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 God bless this pattern lol. Cold, storm, cold...whatever happens this is a december to remember so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the NAM is interesting...it actually develops snow along the arctic boundary as it comes S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm sure it would be fine. It's not like we're in Texas where a few inches of snow prevents people from getting around. If this ends up like yesterday's event where the average rate of accumulation is 1/3-1/2 inch/hour then roads will be fine just like they were yesterday. That said, I think 3 PM +/- a couple of hours for us is a good first guess for start time considering we're still three days away. Yeah, I agree,a few will bail since they won't drive in anything, but 3pm is fine, would mean an a few inches at best during the late afternoon hours with most of the storm at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm sure it would be fine. It's not like we're in Texas where a few inches of snow prevents people from getting around. If this ends up like yesterday's event where the average rate of accumulation is 1/3-1/2 inch/hour then roads will be fine just like they were yesterday. That said, I think 3 PM +/- a couple of hours for us is a good first guess for start time considering we're still three days away. The thing is, it will be much much colder then yesterday. Roads accum much easier and salting doesnt do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Man, CMC is a long duration and prolific snow producer even with a bit of taint. I'd lock that! Snows all weekend essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the NAM is interesting...it actually develops snow along the arctic boundary as it comes S. Gfs had that on a smaller scale last night, but i thought it was just spraying qpf cuz it just felt like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Keep in mind this is the GFS...but yet look how sick that thermal ribbon is. Reality probably would bring that front to near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The thing is, it will be much much colder then yesterday. Roads accum much easier and salting doesnt do much. There would prob be a big temp gradient between his area and even N CT in this setup. It could be near freezing down there and around 20F 30 miles to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This type of storm is a nightmare for public works. Good way to use half the snow removal budget in one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There would prob be a big temp gradient between his area and even N CT in this setup. It could be near freezing down there and around 20F 30 miles to the north Wow, that would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This type of storm is a nightmare for public works. Good way to use half the snow removal budget in one storm LoL I think our town used a 1/4 of ours back during that non-event in November - treating the 38f roads during the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Keep in mind this is the GFS...but yet look how sick that thermal ribbon is. Reality probably would bring that front to near BOS. avn_sfc_st_99.gif This might be stupid question but that shows down this way in the mid to upper 30's correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 CMC seems reasonable to me. And in my opinion it has been the most consistent of the group. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Man, CMC is a long duration and prolific snow producer even with a bit of taint. I'd lock that! Snows all weekend essentially. Jerry--dare I ask?? There would prob be a big temp gradient between his area and even N CT in this setup. It could be near freezing down there and around 20F 30 miles to the north Yes--that would be a little nipply from northern ORH county through GC and pionts north. Speaking of nipply, quite the cold bustery day out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ensembles are still maybe just SE of ACK, but look more intense then the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This might be stupid question but that shows down this way in the mid to upper 30's correct? Yes and it may be correct, but the point is that it's probably going to be too quick to warm, too far west with the warmth...etc. If we have heavier precip falling that will also help keep the coast a bit cooler with more dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ensembles are still maybe just SE of ACK, but look more intense then the op. Looks like over ACK. What's with the ensembles being so far NW compared to operational guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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