ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I like the 18z gfs. Nice cold front precedes low with fresh cold high pressure. Ripe for front end thump on that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Patterns performing as patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ripe for front end thump on that setup. Goes on to a Miller B type thing, and then perhaps flips back... Anyway, the signal is loud enough to really start monitoring this thing. For me it is the most important system for the season thus far. As far as p-type and all that -- probably just let this marinade for awhile. This run actually is about ...10% more proficiently phasing streams. Subtle variations in the amplitude/progressivity of the ridge pushing into the WC will have an effect on the amount and trajectory of N stream diving into the NP while the southern stream impulse is zipping east underneath. It's pretty precarious already, and just a little bump east with the interaction axis of the two streams would commit more to redevelopment, sooner, ...still inside the envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What can the Coastal folks hope for as far as strength or High pressure position to stay mostly snow (understanding it's 5 days out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What can the Coastal folks hope for as far as strength or High pressure position to stay mostly snow (understanding it's 5 days out) Everyone looking for snow and lots of it I think for you to stay snow you want this to stay progressive, or somehow get a much earlier redevelopment. If there's a primary low going over PA and western NY, I don't think there's really a chance... but in classic SWFE style, you want to take advantage of the front end thump (GFS looks like it would have almost low end warning snows from the Pike north on the front end, but details are useless at this time frame) and hope most of the QPF falls as frozen then temps rise with a dryslot. I think you'd want more western ridging too, to counter the SE ridge and force the system a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Patterns performing as patterns lol yep... it looks similar to what this last event looked like at 5 days lead time. Hopefully this one can keep the juice and not see the slow reduction of QPF as this last one ended up doing. I doubt that'll be the case with this one though. The overall idea though looks similar with a SWFE feel. 18z GFS is funny because its not that far from a solid Miller B type hit, but its also not far from being an ugly cutter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol yep... it looks similar to what this last event looked like at 5 days lead time. Hopefully this one can keep the juice and not see the slow reduction of QPF as this last one ended up doing. I doubt that'll be the case with this one though. The overall idea though looks similar with a SWFE feel. 18z GFS is funny because its not that far from a solid Miller B type hit, but its also not far from being an ugly cutter, lol. Nah, this is a completely different scenario, actually. We didn't see a rise in the PNA, preceding this ... signaling a pattern transition; one that NCEP has also recognized in their discussion earlier today. This is a two stream involvement, where this last thing never even had vorticity advection -- even last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nah, this is a completely different scenario, actually. We didn't see a rise in the PNA, preceding this ... signaling a pattern transition; one that NCEP has also recognized in their discussion earlier today. This is a two stream involvement, where this last thing never even had vorticity advection -- even last week. Yeah this one looks way juicier than last system...even at 5 days lead...there evolution is more classic with the vortmax energy much closer to home riding throuhg OH Valley and up near us versus over Wisconsin via the four corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gfs looks warm, snow to rain south of nh/tv border, maybe some ice also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Big GFS hit up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Big GFS hit up here. Snow Bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow BombEpic Cheetah storm for you guys. Ski areas Christmas gift. So much juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Fast system ... to be expected... More commitment to a redevelopment on this run though... Model variance continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Epic Cheetah storm for you guys. Ski areas Christmas gift. So much juice. Yeah, Its loaded with juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 With 1030+ MB high situated N and not moving, and a secondary going S of ISP, I don't see this going to straight rain given the initially cold BL we have to work with... Snow to mix/kitchen sink, then ends for SNE. But for up N, yeah, "this run" is solid. Obviously subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That will do. Keep 'em coming, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Bufkit has 20 inches for Krum, congrats Jeffafa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 .4 ice for me after 6 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Orh 11 snow, . 8 frrz rain, disastah if GFS taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any ideas on when this is? Is this a Saturday late night deal and all day Sunday or starting during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oh man the 6z GFS is a weenie run up here, complete with backside upslope enhancement and all. I wish this stuff wouldn't come out so far in advance...5 days is far toooo long out to be even entertaining that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any ideas on when this is? Is this a Saturday late night deal and all day Sunday or starting during the day? I believe it's a kick-off on Friday night. This thread is way more interesting to me than the thread dedicator to today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 00z GFS ensembles seem to have a good deal of amped members, I would assume the mean looks pretty decent though for the interior and especially CNE/NNE. Some of these though would even present p-type issues all the way to Canada. Anyone have the ECM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 00z GFS ensembles seem to have a good deal of amped members, I would assume the mean looks pretty decent though for the interior and especially CNE/NNE. Some of these though would even present p-type issues all the way to Canada. Anyone have the ECM ensembles? f120.gif f132.gif Looking at ensembles at this time range, I'm fully ready to be flirting with p-type issues out here in GC after a few inches of front-end. So far out though, I'm not too concerned. Close enough though that I'm anxioiusly awaiting every new model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 00z GFS ensembles seem to have a good deal of amped members, I would assume the mean looks pretty decent though for the interior and especially CNE/NNE. Some of these though would even present p-type issues all the way to Canada. Anyone have the ECM ensembles? f120.gif f132.gif Euro ensembles had almost no actual cutters again. Looked like only a couple of members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The modeling this far out on this threat has been pretty consistant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I believe it's a kick-off on Friday night. This thread is way more interesting to me than the thread dedicator to today! Friday night? Huh? It looks like it can hold off till Sat eve or night..but I was wondering what mets thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Friday night? Huh? It looks like it can hold off till Sat eve or night..but I was wondering what mets thought No guidance has it starting Friday night...earliest I have seen is Sat morning. Euro waits it until Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 No guidance has it starting Friday night...earliest I have seen is Sat morning. Euro waits it until Sat night. Ok thanks.. Big Christmas party to attend that night..and the hosts are all over me for starting time. My gut tells me it comes in Saturday afternoon. That's what i told them anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Friday night? Huh? It looks like it can hold off till Sat eve or night..but I was wondering what mets thought 18z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.