RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Biggest 12z runs of the year... Ha Hoping the high pressure and cold stay modeled as strong If we follow the seasonal trend so far, the cold will be ther or strengthen. Coastalwx iseems on point with this so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I dont see it that way. More overunning, less amped is good too. But im the glass half full kinda guy: sure. and to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not enough people old enough to have the palpable thrill of Leon in their hearts. At least us coastie's. Ray is a big event man as we all are but years on earth teach you to appreciate the middling but duration episodes. I remember '94 just fine...great winter, but frustrating to watch s Weymouth get like 20", while I had like 6". BTW, WTF is Leon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ens? we'll see. geez. lol. i see some flags. that's all. no biggie. it's days away. that's why i said "we'll see what the 12z suite has" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I remember '94 just fine...great winter, but frustrating to watch s Weymouth get like 20", while I had like 6". BTW, WTF is Leon?? Jerry has started calling his favorite winter "Leon" in reference to the 1993 Thanksgiving Snow Game in Dallas that kicked off that winter. Leon Lett lost the game at the end on a huge blunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Jerry has started calling his favorite winter "Leon" in reference to the 1993 Thanksgiving Snow Game in Dallas that kicked off that winter. Leon Lett lost the game at the end on a huge blunder. Ahh...would have guessed that......ah...never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Biggest 12z runs of the year... Ha Hoping the high pressure and cold stay modeled as strong I'm not worried about the modeled cold for the majority of us. My concern is with the southern stream s/w getting put thru the meat grinder(confluence), If we can get that to remain intact along the southern tier states, we should do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess the last two Decembers have been enjoying anything that falls this month..lol. If it ends up not doing much I'll take a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 we'll see. geez. lol. i see some flags. that's all. no biggie. it's days away. that's why i said "we'll see what the 12z suite has" Could you describe the flags? it's good to see some disagreement between what Will and Scooter are saying and you..but what don't you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Could you describe the flags? it's good to see some disagreement between what Will and Scooter are saying and you..but what don't you like? FWIW I see what he is saying...but I'll take any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Could you describe the flags? it's good to see some disagreement between what Will and Scooter are saying and you..but what don't you like? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 FWIW I see what he is saying...but I'll take any snow. I was just curious what flags he saw. in my opinion..if I was on the coast and I saw last nite's run i woukd be ecstatic because they were snowier and colder for that area. I guess the only flag I could see is if this is a trend or on ot on lowering the qpf..Either way it seems most folks will see 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I was just curious what flags he saw. in my opinion..if I was on the coast and I saw last nite's run i woukd be ecstatic because they were snowier and colder for that area. I guess the only flag I could see is if this is a trend or on ot on lowering the qpf..Either way it seems most folks will see 6+ He's basically a little unsure of this S/W interaction. In other words, it's possible it may be more weak and strung out. At least I think....I don't want to put words in his mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Decent hit it seems. Nrn stream s/w does want to dig a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I was just curious what flags he saw. in my opinion..if I was on the coast and I saw last nite's run i woukd be ecstatic because they were snowier and colder for that area. I guess the only flag I could see is if this is a trend or on ot on lowering the qpf..Either way it seems most folks will see 6+ well...i like snow...so it's not like i don't "like" the idea of it being colder. my "fear" is the initial shortwave that was really giving a good thump of dynamics on yesterday's runs has trended weaker overnight (even more on the 12z gfs actually). if that's there, but weak, i could see it producing some light snows but then working to taint the atmosphere a bit then any follow-up shortwave is not as productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 well...i like snow...so it's not like i don't "like" the idea of it being colder. my "fear" is the initial shortwave that was really giving a good thump of dynamics on yesterday's runs has trended weaker overnight (even more on the 12z gfs actually). if that's there, but weak, i could see it producing some light snows but then working to taint the atmosphere a bit then any follow-up shortwave is not as productive. yeah, lead wave is dampening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I guess the last two Decembers have been enjoying anything that falls this month..lol. If it ends up not doing much I'll take a few inches. Lets score while we can (-EPO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well a little more moisture hangs back Sunday aftn thanks to the srn stream it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Solid interior hit on the 12z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Solid hit for about all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Decent hit it seems. Nrn stream s/w does want to dig a bit more. Check out this sounding on Saturday...this is what makes me extremely happy to see hours of overrunning if its anywhere close to accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS 4-8" region wide.. I think that is reasonable, I don't think anybody is expecting a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Check out this sounding on Saturday...this is what makes me extremely happy to see hours of overrunning if its anywhere close to accurate Yeah I love that. I'll take that with cold winds off the water please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Solid interior hit on the 12z GFS though. Decent, but never looks to get too intense. Slow and steady wins the race? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah I love that. I'll take that with cold winds off the water please. That's the kind of stuff that gives you 3" of fluff with 0.12" of qpf or something. That deep of a saturated snow growth layer is going to produce big time...and yeah, you throw in some onshore flow with -12C 925 temps, that is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's the kind of stuff that gives you 3" of fluff with 0.12" of qpf or something. That deep of a saturated snow growth layer is going to produce big time...and yeah, you throw in some onshore flow with -12C 925 temps, that is even better. I do hope that the lead s.w doesn't crap the bed...but I thought it was a wee bit stronger. To me, the flow ahead of it was flatter than 06z, but if you noticed..it tried to hang back a bit of moisture on Sunday. If that lead s/w can keep things going...then the levels near and above 850 won't warm as rapidly. This will be something where it may stay below 20 from Ray to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's the kind of stuff that gives you 3" of fluff with 0.12" of qpf or something. That deep of a saturated snow growth layer is going to produce big time...and yeah, you throw in some onshore flow with -12C 925 temps, that is even better. This is true--but spread out over a relatively long stretch of time allows that fluff to settle. But, will sure be easy to clean off the cars. Lots of powder in the face from the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Solid hit for about all. Given the Gfs propensity to overdo everything.... Nice to see but interested to see where the euro and ggem trended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There is nothing better than a 36-48 hour continuous snowfall..just non-stop accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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