December 14/15 winter storm threat

[Baroclinic Zone]

The GFS op is funny....I love how it tries to warm the lower levels with a track like that.

 

Yeah, going to be tough to dislodge this incoming cold shot.  850s of -20C in NNE and -10C in SNE preceding this.  Honestly, all of New England is in a prime spot for this.  Sure maybe some changeover to a rain but this is the best modeled system thus far that we've seen.  Anxious for 12z runs today as we are in the day 4/5 range we're we should see guidance coming together.

[Ginx snewx]

Trembling fear. Still more afraid of Phil's arctic flu and flying monkeys outbreak, though to be honest.

It's palatable

[CoastalWx]

It's palatable

 

I'd probably still favor more north for now..but plenty of time left.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd probably still favor more north for now..but plenty of time left.

just busting PF, of course

[40/70 Benchmark]

I just hope that the first round doesn't turn into an oes circle jerk, like 1994.

 

Scooter would be ground zero for that in Weymouth...

[CoastalWx]

I just hope that the first round doesn't turn into an oes circle jerk, like 1994.

Scooter would be ground zero for that in Weymouth...

LOL it wouldn't turn into that. The whole area is covered with overrunning fat dendrite snows if the GFS were to be correct. This isn't a coastal front exhaust deal.

[moneypitmike]

  I just hope the over-running isn't the extent of it with development happening too late.

[Ginx snewx]

When I see the progs for overrunning all day Saturday culminating in a January 1994 type of event I get goosebumps. Every 20 years?

The similarities to our 91 through 94 seasons are not to be denied

[40/70 Benchmark]

LOL it wouldn't turn into that. The whole area is covered with overrunning fat dendrite snows if the GFS were to be correct. This isn't a coastal front exhaust deal.

Not gonna lie...I'd rather last night's idea, but no choice.

[CoastalWx]

Not gonna lie...I'd rather last night's idea, but no choice.

 

Naked twister? You still very well may have that. Temps may stay below 20F on the other side of the cstl front.

[HoarfrostHubb]

And some get banned/suspended for far far less!!

No one has ever been banned or suspended for mentioning the years of a good winter...  Zeus just needs to let the soul of Leon flow

 

I have no problem with a nice, drawn out event with snow the whole time, even if it is not fierce. Save the one eyed monsters for Jan and Feb

[Zeus]

And some get banned/suspended for far far less!!

 

Wait, are we not supposed to talk about 93-94 around here anymore? I know I've been gone since March but I didn't figure that much had changed.

 

Embarrassing fact: I actually barely remember that winter because I was 8 years old, lived on the NJ coast, and hadn't gotten my weather nerd on yet. Also I drank a lot in those days. Anyhow, I do remember school being canceled a couple of times that year.

 

I would like it if school was canceled again on Saturday, so at this time I'm going to cast my vote in favor of this winter being just like good old 93-94! Even if I get banned for saying it.

[CoastalWx]

BOX with our favorite term.

 

EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER.

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Why all the angst?

[Tropopause_Fold]

overnight runs were a little discouraging on this one. we'll see what the 12z suite has in store.

[jamesnichols1989]

Arctic front on the models on Friday comes through before the light mood snows start for Saturday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

overnight runs were a little discouraging on this one. we'll see what the 12z suite has in store.

I agree...of course the usual few will ignore that and carry on unabated, but it was a little disconcerting.

 

Par for the course at this lead.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree...of course the usual few will ignore that and carry on unabated, but it was a little disconcerting.

 

Par for the course at this lead.

 

 

I'm not sure what was so bad about last night...unless you want a stronger low running up into SE MA with a risk of a changeover. Or if you are up in NNE and you miss the best QPF.

 

Granted, a changeover isn't necessarily bad if its a few hours of sleet after a big hit of 8-10" of snow, but you risk changing over to rain on closer setups too. I would think last night's solutions are exactly where the CP folks would want it. This isn't going to keep trending SE...there's a fat SE ridge that is only going to allow so much concession.

[Bostonseminole]

I'm not sure what was so bad about last night...unless you want a stronger low running up into SE MA with a risk of a changeover. Or if you are up in NNE and you miss the best QPF.

 

Granted, a changeover isn't necessarily bad if its a few hours of sleet after a big hit of 8-10" of snow, but you risk changing over to rain on closer setups too. I would think last night's solutions are exactly where the CP folks would want it. This isn't going to keep trending SE...there's a fat SE ridge that is only going to allow so much concession.

 

thanks for the explanation, I was wondering, the same, the system was a bit weaker but did not see big flags after those runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not sure what was so bad about last night...unless you want a stronger low running up into SE MA with a risk of a changeover. Or if you are up in NNE and you miss the best QPF.

 

Granted, a changeover isn't necessarily bad if its a few hours of sleet after a big hit of 8-10" of snow, but you risk changing over to rain on closer setups too. I would think last night's solutions are exactly where the CP folks would want it. This isn't going to keep trending SE...there's a fat SE ridge that is only going to allow so much concession.

Who said that?

 

I said "a little disconcerting"......which implies downgrading a 10" event to a 6" event.

 

Overall the character of the threat has not changed, I was speaking of the run itself.

[ORH_wxman]

thanks for the explanation, I was wondering, the same, the system was a bit weaker but did not see big flags after those runs.

 

 

I think some are worried about a repeat of Sunday...but I do not see any evidence of that.

 

Maybe I'm a sucker for long overrunning snows with favorable soundings too...I like that kind of stuff because it usually over performs the model expectations.

[weathafella]

thanks for the explanation, I was wondering, the same, the system was a bit weaker but did not see big flags after those runs.

 

 

I think some are worried about a repeat of Sunday...but I do not see any evidence of that.

 

Maybe I'm a sucker for long overrunning snows with favorable soundings too...I like that kind of stuff because it usually over performs the model expectations.

Not enough people old enough to have the palpable thrill of Leon in their hearts. At least us coastie's. Ray is a big event man as we all are but years on earth teach you to appreciate the middling but duration episodes.

[Tornadomachine]

THEN FOR THIS WEEKEND BOTH ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW REMARKABLE CLUSTERING
REGARDING EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUPPORTS A
STORMY PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH AN ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS FLOW REGIME LENDS ITSELF TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ESPECIALLY AT
THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN STREAMS AND
PHASING VERSUS NON PHASING. NEVERTHELESS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUID INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
MID ATLC STATES LATER SAT...WITH PARENT LOW ACROSS THE OH VLY. ALL
GUID THEN TRACKS COASTAL LOW NORTHEAST WITH ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE /COASTAL HUGGER/ TO
CAPE COD EARLY SUN. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS OFFER A COLDER
SOLUTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW TRACKING OFF THE COAST AND PASSING
JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THESE FINER
DETAILS WON/T BE RESOLVED FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

HOWEVER THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
ARCTIC AIR WELL ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY SAT...
COURTESY OF A SECOND ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME FRI.
CONFLUENT MID-UPR FLOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
WILL MAINTAIN ARCTIC HIGH PRES ACROSS THIS REGION...KEEPING DEEP
COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH A
MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD YIELDS
A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SAT INTO
EARLY SUN.

ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
HERE WE WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A SUPER BLEND OF ENSEMBLES/
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN
CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS!

 

 

Bring it on!  Great disco on BOX's part.  

[CoastalWx]

I think the 06z GFS is awesome. Hours of mood snows piling up and then more WAA type snows. Also, the ensembles were still juicy and more amped up then the ops, so there is that.  I don't think it can keep going SE...but I suppose people are worried that the initial s/w near MO at hr 84 on the 00z runs will get chewed up into the grinder, but the follow up s/w should do the trick. Seems like ensembles were keying more on this energy.

[Ginx snewx]

overnight runs were a little discouraging on this one. we'll see what the 12z suite has in store.

Ens?

[Ginx snewx]

Arctic front on the models on Friday comes through before the light mood snows start for Saturday.

A great precursor

[ORH_wxman]

I think the 06z GFS is awesome. Hours of mood snows piling up and then more WAA type snows. Also, the ensembles were still juicy and more amped up then the ops, so there is that.  I don't think it can keep going SE...but I suppose people are worried that the initial s/w near MO at hr 84 on the 00z runs will get chewed up into the grinder, but the follow up s/w should do the trick. Seems like ensembles were keying more on this energy.

 

 

I'm a sucker for the cold sounding overrunning snows with a deep saturated snow growth layer. As I mentioned before (and I know you've said it too)...those can be really efficient snow producers.

 

 

There's obviously still risk that we get screwed on this system and everything goes into the meat grinder initially and then the follow up wave stinks too...but overall I'm pretty encouraged. You'd rather have a system to your southeast at this time range during this type of pattern than the other way around.

[N. OF PIKE]

Biggest 12z runs of the year... Ha

Hoping the high pressure and cold stay modeled as strong

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

overnight runs were a little discouraging on this one. we'll see what the 12z suite has in store.

I dont see it that way. More overunning, less amped is good too. But im the glass half full kinda guy:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not enough people old enough to have the palpable thrill of Leon in their hearts. At least us coastie's. Ray is a big event man as we all are but years on earth teach you to appreciate the middling but duration episodes.

Not saying this is what will happen here, but the 6" over 24 hour deals don't do as much for me.

I'll take it given the season, but would rather a 1' wallop.