dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty disappointing EC, and the 06z GFS blows--relatively speaking. Hopefully things will revert to stronger/nw solutions.QPF worries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Would love to see the Op Euro verify. As was stated, it was definitely not as dynamic as the 12z run yesterday. The southern stream more sheared out and less well defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 While I'm not positive I think 700/850 are mid levels. 850 is about 5,000 feet so it would be hard for me to conjure that as low level. Think of it this way: 300: jet stream 500: 18,000 700: 10,000 850: 5,000 925: 2,000 Thanks all. Yeah Thats the order I would have thought but those altitude #'s are novel...good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Would love to see the Op Euro verify. As was stated, it was definitely not as dynamic as the 12z run yesterday. The southern stream more sheared out and less well defined. Yeah that's about as good as it can get for us. I noticed that the trend has been to weaken the Storm. Don't really want that to continue much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Weather Channel has me with snow showers and <1 inch on Sat....what the Sam hell? Don't watch the Weather Channel, stay here for all your info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm half awake and haven't looked at much yet, but the euro op/6z gfs look dynamically weaker. We get less of a front end thump and it becomes more of a prolonged -SN/OCNL SN. At least the ecens are juicier than the op. Anyways, hopefully we don't see vort swinging through weakening again as we approach T-0hr. This probably works out better for far SE folks though. I'll take the 0z GGEM though. Even the mighty weenie model of the 6z DGEX seemed to get pretty week and crapped out from some huge QPF runs yesterday, lol. The 6z GFS is much, much weaker but still a wintery weekend with prolonged light snow. 12z runs should be interesting if this trend continues with a weaker short-wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm perfectly fine with a long duration event of 6" that remains all snow. Certainly one of the many options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm perfectly fine with a long duration event of 6" that remains all snow. Certainly one of the many options on the table. A good event to diligently measure every 6 hours and add 'em together to make sure you get more snow than your neighbor who measures once at the end of 30 hours of -SN lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Would love to see the Op Euro verify. As was stated, it was definitely not as dynamic as the 12z run yesterday. The southern stream more sheared out and less well defined. So far not a pattern that usually favors the big wound up lows which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So far not a pattern that usually favors the big wound up lows which is fine by me. Leon didn't like wound up systems either. Just long duration overrunning events that gave us a winter for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Leon didn't like wound up systems either. Just long duration overrunning events that gave us a winter for the ages. Fast flow generally doesn't like big wound up systems...during years like '07-'08 and '08-'09, we generally kept everything moving quickly in the SWFE regime. This one is likely to be similar...doesn't mean it won't redevelop off the coast, it probably will, but it should be pretty quick and likely not have time to deepen into this deep bomb that hooks left up into BOS or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Any model that shows a KU or bomb this winter with the pattern we are in will not verify. Weaker, colder, snowier waves that drop 6-8 or 10 events will be the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So far not a pattern that usually favors the big wound up lows which is fine by me. Yeah, it's been tough to get timing right between the jet branches so I would tend to favor a more sheared out look as opposed to a full blown coastal. Subject to change. We do have quite a few positives working for us with this one as opposed to the last one. Little bit later into season, better antecedent airmass, snowcover, and also I think the northern stream will also keep this from running up into the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Fast flow generally doesn't like big wound up systems...during years like '07-'08 and '08-'09, we generally kept everything moving quickly in the SWFE regime. This one is likely to be similar...doesn't mean it won't redevelop off the coast, it probably will, but it should be pretty quick and likely not have time to deepen into this deep bomb that hooks left up into BOS or something. When I see the progs for overrunning all day Saturday culminating in a January 1994 type of event I get goosebumps. Every 20 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When I see the progs for overrunning all day Saturday culminating in a January 1994 type of event I get goosebumps. Every 20 years? Can you provide specifics on that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 When I see the progs for overrunning all day Saturday culminating in a January 1994 type of event I get goosebumps. Every 20 years? Here, here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Any model that shows a KU or bomb this winter with the pattern we are in will not verify. Weaker, colder, snowier waves that drop 6-8 or 10 events will be the norm How is a weaker wave going to be snowier than a KU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can you provide specifics on that event? 2 day event,..long overrunning culminating in a big bash at the end that sleeted for a time on the coast but brought 12+ overall to many/ most in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How is a weaker wave going to be snowier than a KU? He might be referring to a parade of systems that keep him as snow rather than the frequent tainting that takes place with the wound up systems. Of course, that has not been the case of most events so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 He might be referring to a parade of systems that keep him as snow rather than the frequent tainting that takes place with the wound up systems. Oh I'm sure he meant in relation to a wound up system that snows to the north...that it'll end up further southeast so I-84 gets jackpotted...but I'm laughing because if something shows a KU for most of New England, I have a hard time believing he'd be on board for a weaker wave that's snowier in Maryland and New Jersey. It's all relative to where the wound up storm is progged to go that a weaker wave would end up "snowier." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The GFS op is funny....I love how it tries to warm the lower levels with a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would give the models some time before jumping to conclusions based on the 00z EURO and 06z GFS. NAM likes the overrunning idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How is a weaker wave going to be snowier than a KU? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well it's silly to speculate details, but if we did see that combo of overrunning and OES...that would be a good event for sure. Don't underestimate those moods snow. That's a good snow sounding despite the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What? You said any model that shows a KU will not verify and that weaker, snowier waves would be the rule. I was just joking with you to try to see how a weaker wave would be snowier than a modeled KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lots of fear of a CT jack are showing up this morning. Knock Knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well it's silly to speculate details, but if we did see that combo of overrunning and OES...that would be a good event for sure. Don't underestimate those moods snow. That's a good snow sounding despite the QPF. Those radar loops in that set up are very cool on a mesoscale if you get the east-west moving OE returns under a more broad WAA shield going WSW to ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wind blowing snow off the trees, ah mid winter look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You said any model that shows a KU will not verify and that weaker, snowier waves would be the rule. I was just joking with you to try to see how a weaker wave would be snowier than a modeled KU. Yeah meaning I think the liklihood of a bomb or KU this winter is low..very low.and we'll instead have plenty of waves and weaker systems like the one yesterday and the one tis weekend..Waves that can drop 3-6 or 4-8 or maybe a 6-12 type deal. Just no bombs like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lots of fear of a CT jack are showing up this morning. Knock Knock Trembling fear. Still more afraid of Phil's arctic flu and flying monkeys outbreak, though to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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