40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You read my mind. Cardinal sin to forecast over a foot when the H7 low is west....some pros just can not grasp that seemingly rudimentary concept, and it's more than you think. Absurd. This would have to redevelop entirely quite early on...thus major changes needed, but even if that potential exists, why go there right now? lol I'd be just starting to hint at 6"+ potential right now... March 1-2, 2009 immediately comes to mind....many more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You read my mind. Cardinal sin to forecast over a foot when the H7 low is west....some pros just can not grasp that seemingly rudimentary concept, and it's more than you think. Absurd. This would have to redevelop entirely quite early on...thus major changes needed, but even if that potential exists, why go there right now? lol I'd be just starting to hint at 6"+ potential right now... There's select setups where we can grab 12"+ with that H7 track...but obviously the odds are against it. Heck, you managed to do it on 12/21/08, though obviously the CF enhancement was a big part of it. Right now, I'd probably be hinting at plowable snow and a wintry mess...and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What does H7 stand for? I feel like I probably know what you are talking about but I don't... 700mb low....low pressure at highest levels of the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No he didn't...he did? Sure it's tossing a bone to the weenies, but it's not impossible. I get the conservative approach that a lot of mets take, but it's not crazy to say that a significant storm is possible. Did he at least mention that it could just be a mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The key will be which guidance handles the confluence the best. Im curious which ones performed well with similar events in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There's select setups where we can grab 12"+ with that H7 track...but obviously the odds are against it. Heck, you managed to do it on 12/21/08, though obviously the CF enhancement was a big part of it. Right now, I'd probably be hinting at plowable snow and a wintry mess...and that's about it. I'm talking widespread 12-18".....not a few spot 13-14"ers.... The system must be in the latter stages of redevelopment for that to occur. General rule of thumb....obviously an H7 low to the west and 13" of snow aren't entirely mutually exclusive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 700mb low....low pressure at highest levels of the atmosphere Okay thanks. I know what the 700mb low is lol, I just have never heard it referred to as an H7 low except for this forum. Quick google search showed nothing too. I guess that was obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Very primitive, general map...didn't divulge much. Just had an area of "heaviest snow from the Berkshires through VT/NH. Had snow to mix/rain for most of sne. Seemingly going w climo, which is not a bad hedge at this early juncture. Thanks Ray. Hs thoughts make perfect sense. 4-8 would be thrilling to me. Get the snow down and seal it with sleet....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The key will be which guidance handles the confluence the best. Im curious which ones performed well with similar events in the past. I'll give you a couple guesses, but you're only gonna need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well if we do have those mood fronto snows well ahead of it and an OES contribution, that will boost snows quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm talking widespread 12-18".....not a few spot 13-14"ers.... The system must be in the latter stages of redevelopment for that to occur. General rule of thumb....obviously an H7 low to the west and 13" of snow aren't entirely mutually exclusive lol One of my favorites "west H7 track" storms that produced 12"+ was 1/3-4/96. Often overlooked because of the KU event just a few days later. That storm was a long duration one too with overrunning and an awesome high pressure to the north with a stiff latitude gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'll give you a couple guesses, but you're only gonna need one. It begins with E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'll give you a couple guesses, but you're only gonna need one. JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For the newbies, and those who just don't know....think of a low pressure system as a cylinder stretching from se to nw throughout all levels of the atmosphere.....surface being lowest, and furthest se, and H7 being highest, and furthest nw....you want to be just to the nw of the entire cylinder...ie, just nw of the H7 low. Obviously, as a major cyclone matures, the surface and H7 become vertically stacked, and it occludes, but systems at their most prolific stages are elongated se to nw throughout the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Cmc has the Saturday snows as well....a decent amount. What a bomb overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Like a cylinder curving up and to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 One of my favorites "west H7 track" storms that produced 12"+ was 1/3-4/96. Often overlooked because of the KU event just a few days later. That storm was a long duration one too with overrunning and an awesome high pressure to the north with a stiff latitude gradient. Right....it can happen via very intense isentropic lift, but I'd much rather take my chances with a deformation band. Like I said, rule-of-thumb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Cmc has the Saturday snows as well....a decent amount. What a bomb overnight! Yeah nice run. Mostly snow N of the pike. Prob a bit of sleet taint, but Leon was never afraid of a little sleet in the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Right....it can happen via very intense isentropic lift, but I'd much rather take my chances with a deformation band. Like I said, rule-of-thumb... Yeah, i wasn't disagreeing with the rule of thumb...in fact I harp it all the time. I remember doing it before the 2/2/11 event. But those long overrunning episodes before the main event are always fun. The '96 storm was good memories. Same with Feb '94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Like a cylinder curving up and to the left. Yea, nw...did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah, i wasn't disagreeing with the rule of thumb...in fact I harp it all the time. I remember doing it before the 2/2/11 event. But those long overrunning episodes before the main event are always fun. The '96 storm was good memories. Same with Feb '94. 2/2/11 had some awful meteorology being put out. 20-24" in srn NH with H7 goin through NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yea, nw...did I miss anything? Lol, no it was an innuendo. Good description. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah, i wasn't disagreeing with the rule of thumb...in fact I harp it all the time. I remember doing it before the 2/2/11 event. But those long overrunning episodes before the main event are always fun. The '96 storm was good memories. Same with Feb '94. If anything, it serves as an even greater indictment on a pro met dropping a "foot+ blockbuster bomb" @ 5 days lead.....at least do it when h7 isn't modeled over Quebec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Vertically stacked. Oh ya! I endorse this unequivocally. Excellent post Ray, IMO this is the Crown Jewel of what this site is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 2/2/11 had some awful meteorology being put out. 20-24" in srn NH with H7 goin through NY. Yes. That was the other I was trying to think of...that along with 3-1-09 are the most glaring examples that come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We'll.another long day tomorrow..night fellas. Great period for snow potential now...let's hope we cash it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 If anything, it serves as an even greater indictment on a pro met dropping a "foot+ blockbuster bomb" @ 5 days lead.....at least do it when h7 isn't modeled over Quebec lol Of course you know this means the thing is going to nuke out S of MVY and dump us with 15" after long duration overrunning on Saturday...and make this convo look pretty stupid....even though the meterology is sound. I guess I wouldn't complain about that really though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well in a way, the Blizzard of 93 was a front end nuke job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lol at the Leon stuff, A met from CC is not pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well in a way, the Blizzard of 93 was a front end nuke job. Yea, I suppose The Storm of the Century would offer a good rebuttal to a rule of thumb lol Just a bit of isentropic lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.