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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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Dec 21 is listed on CIPS...funny because my naked twister event also had the preceding day of mood flakes...

 

 

Yeah its actually got a ot of similarities.

 

 

The overrunning snows are a bit different than Dec 20, 2008 which was from an inverted trough left behind by the first wave on Dec 19th...this is almost 1994-esque with overrunning preceding the main wave by 12 hours along the arctic boundary sagging south.

 

Then when the meat of it comes in, your latitude probably helps here. But obviously a long ways to go. This one has a lot of time to change its look.

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Mix line gets up into S NH again on the 00z GFS.  With such a stout HP just north of NNE, I find that suspect.  Too far out to debate those finite details though.

Well we (immediate Boston area including BOS) go to sleet for a time but most of it is snow. 2m temps don't get above freezing indicative of that hp.

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Lets get the 00Z suite in so we have something to talk about. 5 days out and we are talking snow physics and ratios :axe:

We were talking about the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS. I don't really know what the difference is between those and 00Z runs...still 5 days out basically.

i don't know how we decide how many days we are out, it's due to start snowing by midday Saturday, so I think we are 3.5 days away...
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Who is Leon?  I've seen that reference so many times over the past month.  

 

BTW, WU text forecasts putting out 6-10" here and another 4-8" on my birthday.  :lol:  :santa:

12/18 bday?

Look up Leon Lett. The date of the game in question gives the winter away. Not to be mentioned other the code like this.

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Selective listening I guess. Thinking about staying up for the EURO. The bug is getting the best of me. The chase for me has always been the thrill and the event itself always a letdown.

Yeah.  It's going to be a long week.  Chance of heavy snows, but even better chance of heavier procrastination from finals studying! :axe:

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A foot plus is likely at d4 with the H7 low tracking over S QB?

You read my mind.

 

Cardinal sin to forecast over a foot when the H7 low is west....some pros just can not grasp that seemingly rudimentary concept, and it's more than you think.

 

Absurd.

 

This would have to redevelop entirely quite early on...thus major changes needed, but even if that potential exists, why go there right now? lol

 

I'd be just starting to hint at 6"+ potential right now...

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You read my mind.

 

Cardinal sin to forecast over a foot when the H7 low is west....some pros just can not grasp that seemingly rudimentary concept, and it's more than you think.

 

Absurd.

 

This would have to redevelop entirely quite early on...thus major changes needed, but even if that potential exists, why go there right now? lol

 

I'd be just starting to hint at 6"+ potential right now...

What does H7 stand for? I feel like I probably know what you are talking about but I don't...

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