SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ?? https://pic.twitter.com/6X5IUhZRxp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ?? https://twitter.com/ericfisher Scroll down a bit. 30"+ pack in E MA by 12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I have a question Ginxy what keeps this storm from going southeast with the cold pushing down, or having it cut north over Buffalo? There is really no --NAO at least that I know of? What will make it take the track that all of these models are showing? Wouldn't it favor the track that the last couple of impulses have taken down through the MA and graze the New England area? Or the cutter track that occurred during thanksgiving where if that happened probably front snow and ice and then rain once the warm air came in.blocking high, cold heavy dense air prevents the vortmax from charging N, causing energy transfer to the coast, where that occurs is critical. Upper air flow then dictates a SW to NE movement. Nothing is locked in though but with Ens support it Appears this is classic Miller B transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ??. It shows snow totals over 10 days. Pretty weenie map. (He is at WBZ now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't get me wrong I LOVE SNOW though I am trying to understand the Logic behind these models since every model I have seen so far are showing pretty much the same thing which is still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 IMHO, that large, immaculately positioned (on current guidance) +pp is simply not going to permit an all-out, unmitigated disaster, save for potentially se MA and the s coast. Worst case scenario is that the mid levels fly through w ne, or even nys, but the slp is elongated and forced to redevelop along the s coast and track through se MA....which still produces a significant event to the n and w of Boston, and even a few inches of glue in Boston proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 blocking high, cold heavy dense air prevents the vortmax from charging N, causing energy transfer to the coast, where that occurs is critical. Upper air flow then dictates a SW to NE movement. Nothing is locked in though but with Ens support it Appears this is classic Miller B transfer. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Amazing snow cover in the USA right now. Tips cyrosphere has exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 IMHO, that large, immaculately positioned (on current guidance) +pp is simply not going to permit an all-out, unmitigated disaster, save for potentially se MA and the s coast. Worst case scenario is that the mid levels fly through w ne, or even nys, but the slp is elongated and forced to redevelop along the s coast and track through se MA....which still produces a significant event to the n and w of Boston, and even a few inches of glue in Boston proper. Agree, thats the worst case IMO...1036mb high in northern ME doesn't allow this thing to surge up the CT River Valley. Hell, maybe not even over the Cape. Only way this goes wrong is if that northern stream energy speeds up, forcing this thing to undergo cyclogenesis over northern VA and amplifies the 500mb flow enough to have it goes over BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 https://twitter.com/ericfisher Scroll down a bit. 30"+ pack in E MA by 12/20. I ran that while looking at dirty internet sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Top two hits on CIPS from the 12z GFS: 16DEC07 21DEC08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2007121618 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2008122118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 A lot can go wrong lol, just hope it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Top two hits on CIPS from the 12z GFS: 16DEC07 21DEC08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2007121618 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2008122118 Saw that...how good are those analogs? I don't have much experience with them personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Top two hits on CIPS from the 12z GFS: 16DEC07 21DEC08 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2007121618 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F120&model=GFS212&dt=2008122118 Naked twister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Naked twister It's 12/10. Grass is snow covered. Multiple chances for more. Hints of quasi-vodka cold early next week? Even with just under 2" on the season, I'm already starting to get the feeling this is going to be a special winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ...Deleted my previous comment due to stupidity and not reading thoroughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's 12/10. Grass is snow covered. Multiple chances for more. Hints of quasi-vodka cold early next week? Even with just under 2" on the season, I'm already starting to get the feeling this is going to be a special winter. I kept stressing that Dec 2007 got going around mid month, and 2008 even later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would think they can collide similar to a collision coalescence way. I've seen plenty of light fluff events where the dendrites join together in huge clumps. I think most of the crystal destruction is due to snow transport (BL/DR) though. I would think they can collide similar to a collision coalescence way. I've seen plenty of light fluff events where the dendrites join together in huge clumps. I think most of the crystal destruction is due to snow transport (BL/DR) though. Yeah I've seen that too. I understand turbulent motion etc may disturb flakes, but I've yet to see pulverized flakes. I've been through plenty of wind events containing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah I've seen that too. I understand turbulent motion etc may disturb flakes, but I've yet to see pulverized flakes. I've been through plenty of wind events containing snow.Yeah...I think when Will and I mention pulverized crystals we're strictly referring to damage after they've landed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah...I think when Will and I mention pulverized crystals we're strictly referring to damage after they've landed. Yeah exactly....I know what you mean. Once they land...it's a whole other ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00z GFS is really similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty good mid level fronto mood snows hours before the real stuff begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00z GFS is really similar to 18z. I did not look at the 18z but was a bit weaker and warmer compared to 12z but subtle changes at this time range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'd imagine that the upslope itself negates the wind factor...not the case here. In what way do you mean? The snow can come in sideways, but maybe its formed in a less turbulant are of the atmosphere, allowing the dendrites to grow? I would imagine the stuff has to collide sufficiently with each other to break up the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty good mid level fronto mood snows hours before the real stuff begins. Yeah that is nice...long duration event. Festive snows all day Saturday if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Good Ole Pete Bouchard went on record stating over a foot is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah...I think when Will and I mention pulverized crystals we're strictly referring to damage after they've landed. Ahh yes, that is easier. That would lower ratios as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Good Ole Pete Bouchard went on record stating over a foot is likely. No he didn't...he did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 No he didn't...he did? With the disclaimer..."where it stays all snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Good Ole Pete Bouchard went on record stating over a foot is likely. Unfortunately that does not surprise me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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