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December 14/15 winter storm threat


Typhoon Tip

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I think some people think the colder it is, the better the ratios. Not you...but I'm just throwing that out there. The wind also effects how it stacks up. The Jan 2005 storm was like 26" of "heavy" dry snow. In other words, it was so densely packed in thanks to hurricane force gusts.

 

Yeah I think thats a common misconception just because its 22F the ratios may not be 15-20:1.

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I would not be surprised if we get very little to any snow since this cold air in place should push this well south east. If I was to guess right now I believe the models will start to show this, and we will probably end up with what we had these last two storms about an inch or maybe two which I will take over any storm that gives snow and then turns to freezing rain and a major ice storm. Want power for Christmas and not be in the dark like in 2008.

synoptic says you are missing the boat on the type of storm this is. But I agree ice is a huge concern even with heavy front end snow.
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I'm not relating low level temps to ratios, I was referring to that in regards to how fast it can begin to accumulate if it's ripping. Mid level conditions are huge, and I agree with everything you are saying, but as far as ratios go they'll likely be better more inland you go.

I'd preface this by saying it's too early to talk ratios much less accums, but these WAA in the mid-levels seem to historically produce lower ratio snow...lots of needles and plates especially if the H7 level starts to get warm. It's good dense snow that has staying power. But I haven't looked at any soundings so not sure where the warm air is in the column.

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its actually pretty good at times lately and they run computer model graphics

 

ill have to give the russians a call.

 

I feel the opposite. I mean I suppose this still can cut west, but that's a pants tent high to our north. I'm still thinking SWFE type setup. Snow to brief rain possibly on the coast, but not after a thump. Snow to IP or dryslot inland. Just a first guess...but that high is a nice reason to feel rather bullish. JMHO.

 

will it stay there if it comes to fruition.... what if weaker confluence allows it to slide out and not hold its ground?

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ill have to give the russians a call.

 

 

will it stay there if it comes to fruition.... what if weaker confluence allows it to slide out and not hold its ground?

 

I suppose it could still happen as yesterday's runs showed, but the overall trend is certainly to keep it steadfast and even stronger.

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Best lousy snow growth storms 12/13/07, 1/16/11. Sugar piled up deep.

Yeah if you have the lift to produce the proper QPF it'll pile up.

In the end it doesn't really matter usually in terms of snowpack but just helps pad the seasonal total... you get 6-8" of 9:1 ratio needles or 12" of 15:1, 3 days later both of those leave you with 6-8" on the ground once the fluff settles out, while there's not much settling at all in the former.

Like the snow in CT today looks like stuff where two days later with some wind or sun you have 0.2" QPF and 4" of snow settle to 2" of depth. Most fluff seems to regress to close to 10:1 in the end, in my experience.

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I'd preface this by saying it's too early to talk ratios much less accums, but these WAA in the mid-levels seem to historically produce lower ratio snow...lots of needles and plates especially if the H7 level starts to get warm. It's good dense snow that has staying power. But I haven't looked at any soundings so not sure where the warm air is in the column.

12/13/07 was needle heaven, could care less about the shape of the dendrite as long as I get another foot like that
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Yeah if you have the lift to produce the proper QPF it'll pile up.

In the end it doesn't really matter usually in terms of snowpack but just helps pad the seasonal total... you get 6-8" of 9:1 ratio needles or 12" of 15:1, 3 days later both of those leave you with 6-8" on the ground once the fluff settles out, while there's not much settling at all in the former.

Like the snow in CT today looks like stuff where two days later with some wind or sun you have 0.2" QPF and 4" of snow settle to 2" of depth. Most fluff seems to regress to close to 10:1 in the end, in my experience.

staying power appeals much more to me but today's fluff is breathtaking. Needles do make for fantastic drifts though.
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staying power appeals much more to me but today's fluff is breathtaking. Needles do make for fantastic drifts though.

 

Yeah there are positives and negatives to both types...fluff has a more currier and ives appeal, but a good dense snowfall sticks around and creates larger snowbanks and generally just looks like more snow.

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This event is like 5 days out or even a little less correct? At least this isn't a day 10 fantasy storm.

It was a day 10 fantasy storm 5 days ago....lol

 

But all guidance is showing this, so I believe we will be impacted, but the details of snow/freezing rain/IP won't be determined for a few more days I would think

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