wx2fish Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think some people think the colder it is, the better the ratios. Not you...but I'm just throwing that out there. The wind also effects how it stacks up. The Jan 2005 storm was like 26" of "heavy" dry snow. In other words, it was so densely packed in thanks to hurricane force gusts. Yeah I think thats a common misconception just because its 22F the ratios may not be 15-20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Uncanny location just past the Rt 2/495 juncture.I feel for him when he's getting screwed and saying the storm sucks while everyone else is racking up over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would not be surprised if we get very little to any snow since this cold air in place should push this well south east. If I was to guess right now I believe the models will start to show this, and we will probably end up with what we had these last two storms about an inch or maybe two which I will take over any storm that gives snow and then turns to freezing rain and a major ice storm. Want power for Christmas and not be in the dark like in 2008.synoptic says you are missing the boat on the type of storm this is. But I agree ice is a huge concern even with heavy front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Guys (and gals) in NNE are saying the opposite. Haha Thinking somewhere between 40/70 and the Cape right now, which is pretty wide ranging, but that seems the most plausible at this juncture. We have gals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Best lousy snow growth storms 12/13/07, 1/11/11. Sugar piled up deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm not relating low level temps to ratios, I was referring to that in regards to how fast it can begin to accumulate if it's ripping. Mid level conditions are huge, and I agree with everything you are saying, but as far as ratios go they'll likely be better more inland you go. I'd preface this by saying it's too early to talk ratios much less accums, but these WAA in the mid-levels seem to historically produce lower ratio snow...lots of needles and plates especially if the H7 level starts to get warm. It's good dense snow that has staying power. But I haven't looked at any soundings so not sure where the warm air is in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 its actually pretty good at times lately and they run computer model graphics ill have to give the russians a call. I feel the opposite. I mean I suppose this still can cut west, but that's a pants tent high to our north. I'm still thinking SWFE type setup. Snow to brief rain possibly on the coast, but not after a thump. Snow to IP or dryslot inland. Just a first guess...but that high is a nice reason to feel rather bullish. JMHO. will it stay there if it comes to fruition.... what if weaker confluence allows it to slide out and not hold its ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah I think thats a common misconception just because its 22F the ratios may not be 15-20:1.I blame that terrible sfc temp based ratio chart BOX has had up on their site since the 90s.http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I blame that terrible sfc temp based ratio chart BOX has had up on their site since the 90s. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html that is what most of us enthusiasts go by. when we see 18F, we think Jan '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ill have to give the russians a call. will it stay there if it comes to fruition.... what if weaker confluence allows it to slide out and not hold its ground? I suppose it could still happen as yesterday's runs showed, but the overall trend is certainly to keep it steadfast and even stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Best lousy snow growth storms 12/13/07, 1/16/11. Sugar piled up deep. Yeah if you have the lift to produce the proper QPF it'll pile up. In the end it doesn't really matter usually in terms of snowpack but just helps pad the seasonal total... you get 6-8" of 9:1 ratio needles or 12" of 15:1, 3 days later both of those leave you with 6-8" on the ground once the fluff settles out, while there's not much settling at all in the former. Like the snow in CT today looks like stuff where two days later with some wind or sun you have 0.2" QPF and 4" of snow settle to 2" of depth. Most fluff seems to regress to close to 10:1 in the end, in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'd preface this by saying it's too early to talk ratios much less accums, but these WAA in the mid-levels seem to historically produce lower ratio snow...lots of needles and plates especially if the H7 level starts to get warm. It's good dense snow that has staying power. But I haven't looked at any soundings so not sure where the warm air is in the column.12/13/07 was needle heaven, could care less about the shape of the dendrite as long as I get another foot like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I blame that terrible sfc temp based ratio chart BOX has had up on their site since the 90s. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html Ugh wow I haven't thought about that in ages. The worst is 20F needles that pile up painfully slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah if you have the lift to produce the proper QPF it'll pile up. In the end it doesn't really matter usually in terms of snowpack but just helps pad the seasonal total... you get 6-8" of 9:1 ratio needles or 12" of 15:1, 3 days later both of those leave you with 6-8" on the ground once the fluff settles out, while there's not much settling at all in the former. Like the snow in CT today looks like stuff where two days later with some wind or sun you have 0.2" QPF and 4" of snow settle to 2" of depth. Most fluff seems to regress to close to 10:1 in the end, in my experience. staying power appeals much more to me but today's fluff is breathtaking. Needles do make for fantastic drifts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 12/13/07 was needle heaven, could care less about the shape of the dendrite as long as I get another foot like thata needle is not a dendrite...it's a needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 we have to assume the event is in euros strike zone tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 staying power appeals much more to me but today's fluff is breathtaking. Needles do make for fantastic drifts though. Yeah there are positives and negatives to both types...fluff has a more currier and ives appeal, but a good dense snowfall sticks around and creates larger snowbanks and generally just looks like more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 we have to assume the event is in euros strike zone tonight. depends on what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This event is like 5 days out or even a little less correct? At least this isn't a day 10 fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro strike zone is really 72-84 hrs out. Right now, it still can throw Dice-K style Gyro balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This event is like 5 days out or even a little less correct? At least this isn't a day 10 fantasy storm. It was a day 10 fantasy storm 5 days ago....lol But all guidance is showing this, so I believe we will be impacted, but the details of snow/freezing rain/IP won't be determined for a few more days I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This event is like 5 days out or even a little less correct? At least this isn't a day 10 fantasy storm. kinda D4-D5 range. we are closing in. but I promised myself I wouldnt show my enthusiasm until we have taggers tossing weenies out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There will be weenies tossing them every 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro has had a major event d10 now d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There will be weenies tossing them every 6 hours Ive tossed too many in like a week now already lol...its fun though ... but I need to save em or im gonna need the wife in the kitchen all week making more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 a needle is not a dendrite...it's a needle. Thanks learn something new everyday, sorry for semantically offending your fetish lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro strike zone is really 72-84 hrs out. Right now, it still can throw Dice-K style Gyro balls.except for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thanks learn something new everyday, sorry for semantically offending your fetish lol http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/Snowflakes.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/Snowflakes.pdf What a weenie PDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://www.almanac.com/sites/new.almanac.com/files/Snowflakes.pdf Stellar dendrites all the way. That's been scientifically proven at the Alta, Utah snowflake lab to be the best flake for skiing and riding, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.