40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Where I am located I'm okay, but low level temps do appear to be a concern for areas east of me imo, unless it absolutely rips and you get some evaporational cooling but ratios will still be crap. Low level temps are overrated as a determinant of ratios in heavy-duty events.....center some intense lift squarely within the snow growth region, crank that deformations, and it will crank mashed potatoes. Now, if your mid levels are for $hit, then agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Low level temps are overrated as a determinant of ratios in heavy-duty events.....center some intense lift squarely within the snow growth regions, crank that deformations, and it will crank mashed potatoes. Now, if your mid levels are for $hit, then agreed. Totally agree. We were 15:1 today here and how temp during the snow never got below 34F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well I think what George means is that it may be tough for coastal weenies to be all snow. It could be tough for many of us to be snow. Not much to worry about now... who knows this could be a huge pinger fest. I agree with Ray and Jerry though that this has all the ingredients to keep everyone in play... including a fairly strong high to the north that's not racing east and very, very cold temperatures across QC/NNE at the onset. As long as the low track doesn't blow all of those give us way more wiggle room than you typically have so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Low level temps are overrated as a determinant of ratios in heavy-duty events.....center some intense lift squarely within the snow growth regions, crank that deformations, and it will crank mashed potatoes. Now, if your mid levels are for $hit, then agreed. I'm not relating low level temps to ratios, I was referring to that in regards to how fast it can begin to accumulate if it's ripping. Mid level conditions are huge, and I agree with everything you are saying, but as far as ratios go they'll likely be better more inland you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Totally agree. We were 15:1 today here and how temp during the snow never got below 34F! Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would be happy with snow but I would love some serious ice I would not be surprised if we get very little to any snow since this cold air in place should push this well south east. If I was to guess right now I believe the models will start to show this, and we will probably end up with what we had these last two storms about an inch or maybe two which I will take over any storm that gives snow and then turns to freezing rain and a major ice storm. Want power for christmas and not be in the dark like in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Totally agree. We were 15:1 today here and how temp during the snow never got below 34F! I've accumulated 30" of record breaking paste in April with the temp pinned near freezing, and have experienced the agony of sitting at 25*, immersed in the most inefficient needles that you could ever fathom...the most rapid accumulation observed being that of weenie corpses strewn about busted forecasts. Beware the mid level dry sliver!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Respectfully I disagree. Climo argues 4-8+ before taint most places off the cape. Disagreeing with me or powerfreak? You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm not relating low level temps to ratios, I was referring to that in regards to how fast it can begin to accumulate if it's ripping. Mid level conditions are huge, and I agree with everything you are saying, but as far as ratios go they'll likely be better more inland you go. Isn't that kind of the same thing?? I mean, unless it's 35*+, that is overcome with ease given the right circumstances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You Oh you're talking about snowfall amounts? You've been checking out the CIPS? I'm not saying it's an all rain event. I think 4-8 is in the cards, probably the lower end at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It could be tough for many of us to be snow. Not much to worry about now... who knows this could be a huge pinger fest. I agree with Ray and Jerry though that this has all the ingredients to keep everyone in play... including a fairly strong high to the north that's not racing east and very, very cold temperatures across QC/NNE at the onset. As long as the low track doesn't blow all of those give us way more wiggle room than you typically have so early in the season. Yep, I don't want to get too worked up...but my HP fetish is showing itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You Oh you're talking about snowfall amounts? You've been checking out the CIPS? No I was arguing that the setup argues for a big front ender at the very least. Your initial post intimates much less to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've accumulated 30" of record breaking paste in April with the temp pinned near freezing, and have experienced the agony of sitting at 25*, immersed in the most inefficient needles that you could ever fathom...the most rapid accumulation observed being that of weenie corpses strewn about busted forecasts. Beware the mid level dry sliver!!! You could teach a class to bad meteorologists!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Isn't that kind of the same thing?? I mean, unless it's 35*+, that is overcome with ease given the right circumstances... Eh, I wouldn't call it the same thing. It's overcome with snowfall rates if that's what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The one thing I've noticed with the ratio talk...if your mid levels are equal...snow will accumulate the same way whether it's 31.8 or 22.8 If you want to talk about a more heavily rimed flake because of those warmer temps...yes and no..it can happen, but that is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyways, we are getting ahead. Lets just hope this goes over the BM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The one thing I've noticed with the ratio talk...if your mid levels are equal...snow will accumulate the same way whether it's 31.8 or 22.8 If you want to talk about a more heavily rimed flake because of those warmer temps...yes and no..it can happen, but that is another story. But Scott... if it's 33F the roads will be wet and snow can't really accumulate well!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Anyways, we are getting ahead. Lets just hope this goes over ack.. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 But Scott... if it's 33F the roads will be wet and snow can't really accumulate well!!! I was 33-34F for a while, but actually stuck to part of my driveway. Snowrates FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The one thing I've noticed with the ratio talk...if your mid levels are equal...snow will accumulate the same way whether it's 31.8 or 22.8 If you want to talk about a more heavily rimed flake because of those warmer temps...yes and no..it can happen, but that is another story. Well both temps are below freezing so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't y'all forget, Logan was ripping snow on 12/16/07 with a 30kt due east wind. High pressure over ME FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Well both temps are below freezing so yeah. I think some people think the colder it is, the better the ratios. Not you...but I'm just throwing that out there. The wind also effects how it stacks up. The Jan 2005 storm was like 26" of "heavy" dry snow. In other words, it was so densely packed in thanks to hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Don't y'all forget, Logan was ripping snow on 12/16/07 with a 30kt due east wind. High pressure over ME FTW. E winds for something like 9 hours while it was snowing to beat the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I would not be surprised if we get very little to any snow since this cold air in place should push this well south east. If I was to guess right now I believe the models will start to show this, and we will probably end up with what we had these last two storms about an inch or maybe two which I will take over any storm that gives snow and then turns to freezing rain and a major ice storm. Want power for christmas and not be in the dark like in 2008.Lol what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I was 33-34F for a while, but actually stuck to part of my driveway. Snowrates FTW. Yeah we were 33-34 and roads whitened right up... they since melted a bit. I had a foot on 10/30/2011 and a foot on 4/1/1997 never going below 33F. 1/4 or 1/2 SM snow will pile up with no problem at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think some people think the colder it is, the better the ratios. Not you...but I'm just throwing that out there. The wind also effects how it stacks up. The Jan 2005 storm was like 26" of "heavy" dry snow. In other words, it was so densely packed in thanks to hurricane force gusts. It's understandable why people think that way because they often forget what's happening aloft. The further west and north you go though the ratios are most of the times better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah we were 33-34 and roads whitened right up... they since melted a bit. I had a foot on 10/30/2011 and a foot on 4/1/1997 never going below 33F. 1/4 or 1/2 SM snow will pile up with no problem at all. I still can't believe when it started sticking to the roads on the aftn 3/31/97. I actually had to pull over because the snow caused my windshield wipers to become giant snow corn dogs...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's understandable why people think that way because they often forget what's happening aloft. The further west and north you go though the ratios are most of the times better.Yeah there's usually that double jackpot...the CCB and then the deformation fluff bomb on the northern edge of the system with the Tippy screw zone in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's understandable why people think that way because they often forget what's happening aloft. The further west and north you go though the ratios are most of the times better. It's all about aloft. However, if a storm moves near the benchmark...more often than not the mid level features will cause the best banding and ratios to be right over eastern SNE and down through CT. There's a ton of example I know...right now I just want a storm to not track over Albany. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah there's usually that double jackpot...the CCB and then the deformation fluff bomb on the northern edge of the system with the Tippy screw zone in between. Uncanny location just past the Rt 2/495 juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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