Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 accuweather had just started their forums wherein I was introduced to people bickering, seems the winds may have been east IIRC and some were saying forget it. I remember one guy who was adamant we would still get 4-8 after midnight when the cold air flooded in..I believe most saw nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm sure this doesn't compare to the March 2001 bust but as far as storms that I actually tracked this one definitely ranks as one of the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 too many people bought the nam in jan 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Compared to other busts, at least the storm has materialized. But the amount of shift is ridiculous. We're talking about a 350 to 400 mile shift in the axis of the heaviest snow southward in a matter of 48hrs. That's appallingly bad. At the start, LI was on the southern fringe of the moderate precip...and now the whole shield is south of LI. That's why this bust feels so bad. It also didn't help that there were a lot of comments on the board about how the entire sub forum is locked for a 8-12" and that everyone would be happy with the turnout. Ironically, nobody will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Meh I never guarantee a storm until it's >24 hours away, and we've had a great winter already so this "bust" doesn't really mean all that much to me. Frankly, these busts don't even concern me too much, as I know beforehand not to expect anything. The true bust storms are those where I should get a lot of snow but instead have mixing/rain issue and bust way low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Meh I never guarantee a storm until it's >24 hours away, and we've had a great winter already so this "bust" doesn't really mean all that much to me. Frankly, these busts don't even concern me too much, as I know beforehand not to expect anything. The true bust storms are those where I should get a lot of snow but instead have mixing/rain issue and bust way low. But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. This definitely ranks up there in terms of busts for me, good or bad. However, at least there was a progression where the snow amounts starting fading away gradually instead of the day of the storm like March 2001. Oh well, I can't complain in what was a great MET winter. Things are looking up to it seems as the gfs has been trending warmer this week. I'm done with following storms, it's been a great run but it's time to move forward I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WWA dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. This definitely ranks up there in terms of busts for me, good or bad. However, at least there was a progression where the snow amounts starting fading away gradually instead of the day of the storm like March 2001. Oh well, I can't complain in what was a great MET winter. Things are looking up to it seems as the gfs has been trending warmer this week. I'm done with following storms, it's been a great run but it's time to move forward I think. But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. This definitely ranks up there in terms of busts for me, good or bad. However, at least there was a progression where the snow amounts starting fading away gradually instead of the day of the storm like March 2001. Oh well, I can't complain in what was a great MET winter. Things are looking up to it seems as the gfs has been trending warmer this week. I'm done with following storms, it's been a great run but it's time to move forward I think. Local media is still hyping a storm...now talking about schools closing in Monmouth co. Is it actuallysnowing there. Not that I care.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. This definitely ranks up there in terms of busts for me, good or bad. However, at least there was a progression where the snow amounts starting fading away gradually instead of the day of the storm like March 2001. Oh well, I can't complain in what was a great MET winter. Things are looking up to it seems as the gfs has been trending warmer this week. I'm done with following storms, it's been a great run but it's time to move forward I think. I think people just forget how difficult it is to forecast the weather in the first place.. the fact that models can even pick up on storms 5+ days out in itself is amazing. We definitely have a lot more work to do with weather models, but we've come very far in the past 10+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. This definitely ranks up there in terms of busts for me, good or bad. However, at least there was a progression where the snow amounts starting fading away gradually instead of the day of the storm like March 2001. Oh well, I can't complain in what was a great MET winter. Things are looking up to it seems as the gfs has been trending warmer this week. I'm done with following storms, it's been a great run but it's time to move forward I think. Damnif they weren't right on Sandy tho, a storm I prayed would miss us in NJ. Snowstorms are cool, hurricanes are not.Tho Gloria was overhyped for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WWA dropped. Winter meet coffin and nail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But it shouldn't have to be that way anymore with the rise in technology. What's the point in even issuing watches and warnings if we don't know what's to happen until the day of or the day before the storm. There is still so much more work to be done to improve these models. The GGEM caught on faster than the others in the southward shift, but it still showed a significant event for us before that. Part of what makes this crazy hobby so appealing to me is that, for all the progress that's been made in numerical and model forecasting in the last 10-15 years, there's still so much to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Part of what makes this crazy hobby so appealing to me is that, for all the progress that's been made in numerical and model forecasting in the last 10-15 years, there's still so much to learn. There's still plenty to learn and improve upon. The forecast of Sandy 7 days out by the Euro has to be one of the greatest forecast model achievements we've ever seen and the same can be said for the Superstorm of 1993 which had far less superior technology than Sandy did. At least when it comes to large scale, severe events, the models can be extremely accurate even several days out or at least some of them could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Meh I never guarantee a storm until it's >24 hours away, and we've had a great winter already so this "bust" doesn't really mean all that much to me. Frankly, these busts don't even concern me too much, as I know beforehand not to expect anything. The true bust storms are those where I should get a lot of snow but instead have mixing/rain issue and bust way low.Eh if I've been tracking a storm for days with expectations for at least a decent event, only to literally get next to nothing in the end, it is gonna leave a sour taste regardless of how good the winter's been. Especially since this might've been our last shot at snow for the season. This late Feb-March pattern that was supposed to be amazing and produce all this snow has been quite a dud so far.On the bright side this storm has been an important lesson for me and I'm sure many others that models really can't be trusted more than a couple days out, and we still have a lot of work to do on improving them. The BUFKIT for the 12z GFS on Wednesday literally had 16 inches of snow for New Brunswick. One of the worst model performances I've seen for a storm ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 For some reason I looked at the euro and it gives us nearly .2" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Eh if I've been tracking a storm for days with expectations for at least a decent event, only to literally get next to nothing in the end, it is gonna leave a sour taste regardless of how good the winter's been. Especially since this might've been our last shot at snow for the season. This March pattern that was supposed to be amazing and produce all this snow has really been quite a dud. On the bright side this storm has been an important lesson for me and I'm sure many others that models really can't be trusted more than a couple days out, and we still have a lot of work to do on improving them. The BUFKIT for the 12z GFS on Wednesday literally had 16 inches of snow for New Brunswick. One of the worst model performances I've seen for a storm ever. It's March 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Even DT might bust with his foot amts in dc and va so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I got more snow in those squalls last week than I did with this, talk about epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The next 2 weeks are going to be snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The next 2 weeks are going to be snowy. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Where? Alta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The next 2 weeks are going to be snowy. In two weeks, in two weeks, in two weeks...that is the story of this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 In two weeks, in two weeks, in two weeks...that is the story of this winter lol You mean one of the snowiest winters on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You mean one of the snowiest winters on record? I really want to beat 1996 but I doubt we will. Number 2 will be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Where? Alta I guess no one looks at the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I guess no one looks at the GFS and Euro They both deserve a timeout after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 They both deserve a timeout after this storm Lets use the GGEM moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lets use the GGEM moving forward Right now I'd agree. And go with the 4 day gfs rule. If it shows snow it wont' and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How the hell did the canadian figure this storm or non storm out ? It was such an outlier compared to the other big models at that 120 hr mark. You very well know when its the only model showing a storm it would totally lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 this current storm might even be a bust for dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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