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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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This brings back the nostalgia of March 5, 2001, LOL,

no. it was an epic bust. people i barely knew in high school (i was a freshman) were calling my house to ask how long school would be cancelled. paul kocin introduced a new color on his maps to account for 20+ totals. the HPC discussions would have made you do backflips. i got 3"
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no. it was an epic bust. people i barely knew in high school (i was a freshman) were calling my house to ask how long school would be cancelled. paul kocin introduced a new color on his maps to account for 20+ totals. the HPC discussions would have made you do backflips. i got 3"

Not only that but during the storm while it was supposed to be snowing and radar looked like crap forecasts were still 12-18". It was basically 48 hours of intermittent snow and sleet adding up to a few inches.

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By my count we had 3 threads and over 4000 posts in the past week for what will amount to flurries to a dusting

 

Agree! It was a huge waste of time

 

Take it as a learning experience.  One that will make you appreciate the overperformers even more.

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I was one of the few that didn't buy the 1962 Ash Wed. Storm analog for 2001...It was much milder than 1962...when I woke up that morning and saw rain and sleet falling I knew I was right about that storm...I ended up with 3.5" of snow and sleet...

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I was one of the few that didn't buy the 1962 Ash Wed. Storm analog for 2001...It was much milder than 1962...when I woke up that morning and saw rain and sleet falling I knew I was right about that storm...I ended up with 3.5" of snow and sleet...

i got that sinking feeling when the 0z nam on saturday night moved north and introduced mixing. that was the beginning of the end
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They cancelled school the day before the storm was supposed to hit. I remember watching Ch 61 and the meteorologists on there were saying this was going to be the storm of the century with prolific amounts.

I had just started a new school district. we canceled 2 days. Got an inch or less of sleet.

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HPC from March 2001 storm


  ZCZC NFDPMDEPD ALL
TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC
2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC..

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...

WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A
BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO
THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF
NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN
THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL
PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD
VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS
MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500
MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP
COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS
STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL
TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY
REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO. THE 60HOUR ETA HAS
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL
STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS
FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP
LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500
MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH
BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS THAT THE MAIN VORT
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500
MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.
THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-
STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. WE FEEL THAT THE
AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND
..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE
THUNDERSNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS
MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV
INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR
AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL.

FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW
ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF
COAST REGION.

ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE
EAST REMAINING VERY COLD.


FLOOD/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
NNNN


Last updated: 226 PM Friday March 2, 2001

 

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Anyone remember this storm? NYC was issued a Heavy Snow Warning with 6-12 inches forecasted. We didn't even see a flake from this storm.

 

 

012721.png

 

 

Anyone remember this storm? NYC was issued a Heavy Snow Warning with 6-12 inches forecasted. We didn't even see a flake from this storm.

 

 

012721.png

yup. heavy snow warning and the next day everyone was rejoicing saying how they dodged a bullet...never forget most adults DO NOT like snow.

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yup. heavy snow warning and the next day everyone was rejoicing saying how they dodged a bullet...never forget most adults DO NOT like snow.

This storm was supposed to bomb out right under LI. The temps during the day were in the 40's. The area was counting on the storm to blow up in order to see snow. That's what all of the models showed until the day of the storm.

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This storm was supposed to bomb out right under LI. The temps during the day were in the 40's. The area was counting on the storm to blow up in order to see snow. That's what all of the models showed until the day of the storm.

accuweather had just started their forums wherein I was introduced to people bickering, seems the winds may have been east IIRC and some were saying forget it.

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accuweather had just started their forums wherein I was introduced to people bickering, seems the winds may have been east IIRC and some were saying forget it.

Yes. The winds were coming from the east. The temps never really dropped past the upper 30's. We were screwed from the get go.

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