Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread

[Momza]

you can also go back in time right here on this forum and review all the discussions

Page 2

#44-began the road to Boxing Day Blizzard

[NEG NAO]

how come all the banter is in the main discussion threads and not here ? Makes them impossible to read.....

[Stormlover74]

how come all the banter is in the main discussion threads and not here ? Makes them impossible to read.....

Its not necessarily all banter but the problem is online everything comes across as bickering or as something offensive. People should be able to debate without it getting personal or people getting offended. At the end of the day we're still 3 days away from this event and the models will trend one way or the other

[NEG NAO]

Its not necessarily all banter but the problem is online everything comes across as bickering or as something offensive. People should be able to debate without it getting personal or people getting offended. At the end of the day we're still 3 days away from this event and the models will trend one way or the other

There is all types of banter in the main topic threads - including the personal attacks - thats the worst type of banter - I think those folks should remember that in the world of weather there will be a time when your outlook and forecasts will totally bust happens even to the best METS -  disagreing with someone is ok as long as it doesn't get personal -maybe in addition  to the banter thread we should also go back to the STORM MODE - was that in effect this  month ?

[Hailstorm]

The "bitter cold" for early January certainly does not look impressive for NYC in Upton's latest forecast. I guess all the analog 93-94 calls were too premature. Yesterday, I heard that the 12z Euro had a 2"+ rainstorm for us and a major torch in early January.

 

It looks like a classic La Nina pattern may be developing. It almost feels as if January 2014 will be similar to of 2011-2012, where cold shots were modified greatly once we transitioned from the long-range to the medium-range. Call me crazy, but I think that this December could have been our snowiest month of this winter, and it's also possible that we may not have a sub-30 degree high this winter.

 

I'm just basing this hypothesis off of my observations. It's almost never good for us when models back off on the magnitude of the frigid air. On the contrary, it's the opposite. Ala December 2010, the cold air almost always were modeled to become stronger and stronger as we got closer to the outbreak. This obviously works in our favor

 

AND the fact that we are likely to feature an above-normal December temperature-wise, adds insult to injury. In my view, having an above-normal December in the temperature department is the kiss of death for the rest of the winter, if you want a >25" seasonal total. In the great winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, we had December monthly departures of -1.4 and -4.5, respectively. And during December 2011-2012, we had record warmth and we obviously knew the outcome of that winter.

[SnoSki14]

The "bitter cold" for early January certainly does not look impressive for NYC in Upton's latest forecast. I guess all the analog 93-94 calls were too premature. Yesterday, I heard that the 12z Euro had a 2"+ rainstorm for us and a major torch in early January.

 

It looks like a classic La Nina pattern may be developing. It almost feels as if January 2014 will be similar to of 2011-2012, where cold shots were modified greatly once we transitioned from the long-range to the medium-range. Call me crazy, but I think that this December could have been our snowiest month of this winter, and it's also possible that we may not have a sub-30 degree high this winter.

 

I'm just basing this hypothesis off of my observations. It's almost never good for us when models back off on the magnitude of the frigid air. On the contrary, it's the opposite. Ala December 2010, the cold air almost always were modeled to become stronger and stronger as we got closer to the outbreak. This obviously works in our favor

 

AND the fact that we are likely to feature an above-normal December temperature-wise, adds insult to injury. In my view, having an above-normal December in the temperature department is the kiss of death for the rest of the winter, if you want a >25" seasonal total. In the great winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, we had December monthly departures of -1.4 and -4.5, respectively. And during December 2011-2012, we had record warmth and we obviously knew the outcome of that winter.

 

 

           

 

Unnecessary, yes. Worthless, yes. Truthful, definitely.

[PB GFI]

The "bitter cold" for early January certainly does not look impressive for NYC in Upton's latest forecast. I guess all the analog 93-94 calls were too premature. Yesterday, I heard that the 12z Euro had a 2"+ rainstorm for us and a major torch in early January.

 

It looks like a classic La Nina pattern may be developing. It almost feels as if January 2014 will be similar to of 2011-2012, where cold shots were modified greatly once we transitioned from the long-range to the medium-range. Call me crazy, but I think that this December could have been our snowiest month of this winter, and it's also possible that we may not have a sub-30 degree high this winter.

 

I'm just basing this hypothesis off of my observations. It's almost never good for us when models back off on the magnitude of the frigid air. On the contrary, it's the opposite. Ala December 2010, the cold air almost always were modeled to become stronger and stronger as we got closer to the outbreak. This obviously works in our favor

 

AND the fact that we are likely to feature an above-normal December temperature-wise, adds insult to injury. In my view, having an above-normal December in the temperature department is the kiss of death for the rest of the winter, if you want a >25" seasonal total. In the great winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, we had December monthly departures of -1.4 and -4.5, respectively. And during December 2011-2012, we had record warmth and we obviously knew the outcome of that winter.

 Torch ? Not modeled anywhere

Dec prob finishes close to normal w 10 inches of snow .

Not extreme , but a disaster is not  modeled anywhere

[ace0927]

           

 

Unnecessary, yes. Worthless, yes. Truthful, definitely.

how can something that is truthful be worthless and unnecessary?

[Hailstorm]

how can something that is truthful be worthless and unnecessary?

"The truth hurts."

[MJO812]

The models keep on changing for January. This tends me to believe that a pattern change is on the way.

[PB GFI]

The models keep on changing for January. This tends me to believe that a pattern change is on the way.

If it does u will warm .  

[Momza]

"The truth hurts."

When it is proven to be true

[BxEngine]

how can something that is truthful be worthless and unnecessary?

Opinions = truths? LOLZ

[Hailstorm]

The models keep on changing for January. This tends me to believe that a pattern change is on the way.

Yeah, a change to a very zonal and progressive one most likely.

 

And I lol'd hard when you flexed your mighty NYPD muscle towards earthlight in the discussion thread earlier. You are undergoing a pattern change too.

[REDMK6GLI]

Yeah, a change to a very zonal and progressive one most likely.

And I lol'd hard when you flexed your mighty NYPD muscle towards earthlight in the discussion thread earlier. You are undergoing a pattern change too.

Yea hes losing his baby teeth and growing dem fangs yo! Lol, picking a fight with someone who has the almighty ban button is not a good idea if you want to keep posting lol, but anthony is a cool guy and means no harm at all

[REDMK6GLI]

Btw folks started up an official 2013-14 winter photo thread so you can posts pictures/videos of this winters snows that have past and are hopefully to come as well

[MJO812]

Yeah, a change to a very zonal and progressive one most likely.

And I lol'd hard when you flexed your mighty

NYPD muscle towards earthlight in the discussion thread earlier. You are undergoing a pattern change too.

I am undergoing a big change.

[MJO812]

Yea hes losing his baby teeth and growing dem fangs yo! Lol, picking a fight with someone who has the almighty ban button is not a good idea if you want to keep posting lol, but anthony is a cool guy and means no harm at all

I have been 5 posted 3 times in the past.

[Hailstorm]

I am undergoing a big change. 

Clearly. In all seriousness, congrats on your latest job. bm88 on NY Metro forums informed me about your new job when I had Christmas dinner with him last night. I am sure you'll have great success.

[+SNfreak21]

La Nina? No dramatic cooling in Nino 3.4, and last January we had a sudden cooling in the pacific and it changed the whole pattern and torched the CONUS (you must be scarred from that) and having a sub 30 degree day is imminent around new years, -20 at 850 mb likely, and speaking about finishing December above normal, its BARELY above normal, right now we have a +0.7 anomaly in CPK, if NYE cold blast arrives earlier and colder, we might finish up just below normal, and one final note Central park has 8.6 inches for December, usually a above average Dec snowfall is a promising sign for winter, and the warm SSTs in the Pacific that gave the Pac NW a brutally cold DEC will be a dominant factor this whole winter (-EPO)

[SnoSki14]

How many years have had above normal snow in December with above normal temperatures, seems like a pretty rare combination, same goes for the above normal snow and have 70 degrees in the second half of the month.

[NEG NAO]

How many years have had above normal snow in December with above normal temperatures, seems like a pretty rare combination, same goes for the above normal snow and have 70 degrees in the second half of the month.

Newark is almost exactly normal temp avg for the month after today and should end up that way or slightly below

with over twice the normal snowfall 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

[SnoSki14]

Newark is almost exactly normal temp avg for the month after today and should end up that way or slightly below

with over twice the normal snowfall 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

 

And it'll likely go above normal starting tomorrow and into the weekend. It could end up at +1.0 to +1.5 by month's end as the only below normal day will likely be New Year's Eve.

[Guest Pamela]

How many years have had above normal snow in December with above normal temperatures, seems like a pretty rare combination, same goes for the above normal snow and have 70 degrees in the second half of the month.

There is some merit to the analog method; but, overall, the weather does not have a memory.

[WeatherFox]

There is some merit to the analog method; but, overall, the weather does not have a memory.

I equate anolog forecasting to one of my favorite expressions which is "It's all about timing".  Analog forecasts should improve over time as more data is used for comparisons.  Of course with so many variables will one weather pattern ever be exactly the same as another?  I believe similar but like "snowflakes" not identical -  at least that's the consensus re snowflakes.   

[NEG NAO]

And it'll likely go above normal starting tomorrow and into the weekend. It could end up at +1.0 to +1.5 by month's end as the only below normal day will likely be New Year's Eve.

why don't you look at the eastern essex county forecast on the official NWS site and fiqure out the highs and lows for the next 5 days - I come up with a max 1/2 degree above normal for the month which is very close to normal.....

[Stormlover74]

And it'll likely go above normal starting tomorrow and into the weekend. It could end up at +1.0 to +1.5 by month's end as the only below normal day will likely be New Year's Eve.

one or 2 days of +5 isn't going to be enough to get us to +1 for the month, not with tomorrow being average and Tuesday being below. Essentially this is an average month with well above average snowfall. Considering most places need less than 20" the rest of the winter to reach their normal amounts I'd say there is a better than average chance of that happening. If we were plus 3-5 this month with no snow then I'd say we might have more to worry about.

[SnoSki14]

one or 2 days of +5 isn't going to be enough to get us to +1 for the month, not with tomorrow being average and Tuesday being below. Essentially this is an average month with well above average snowfall. Considering most places need less than 20" the rest of the winter to reach their normal amounts I'd say there is a better than average chance of that happening. If we were plus 3-5 this month with no snow then I'd say we might have more to worry about.

 

Perhaps I went too high with departures, but a +0.5 (could be higher depending on coastal track) is considered slightly above normal. I'm not worried how things will turn out, I was just interested to know how many years would fall into this month's category. Meaning what years had Decembers with above average snowfalls and above average temperatures. I take analogs as a general guide, but I know they aren't gospel. 

[Hailstorm]

La Nina? No dramatic cooling in Nino 3.4, and last January we had a sudden cooling in the pacific and it changed the whole pattern and torched the CONUS (you must be scarred from that) and having a sub 30 degree day is imminent around new years, -20 at 850 mb likely, and speaking about finishing December above normal, its BARELY above normal, right now we have a +0.7 anomaly in CPK, if NYE cold blast arrives earlier and colder, we might finish up just below normal, and one final note Central park has 8.6 inches for December, usually a above average Dec snowfall is a promising sign for winter, and the warm SSTs in the Pacific that gave the Pac NW a brutally cold DEC will be a dominant factor this whole winter (-EPO)

 

As modeled by today's 12z Euro, the arctic shot after New Year's is relatively short. It quickly torches soon after right when a major rainstorm impacts the whole area. Then another period of cold and dry period ensues before another warm-up. Even though this is technically not classed as a La Nina, the pattern damn resembles it in an ample amount of ways. The continued lack of a +PDO is further degrading our sustained cold shots and our chances of an El Nino to develop this winter or next winter. Even PB GFI who was fervently harping on early January for snow and cold, is beginning to lessen his bullish tone.

 

As bluewave noted in this forum today, the PV from Canada is being modeled to not drop down as much as previously thought. As such, it wouldn't surprise me if the edge of the cold gets eaten away by the time next week comes along which will prevent NYC from dropping below 30 degrees for the high. And Central Park has not dropped below 19 degrees so far this winter despite all the effort by the -EPO and our non-La Nina state. In fact, Upton does not anticipate NYC dropping below 21 degrees next week.

 

As for our monthly departures, I have estimated a cumulative 5-degree positive departure between tomorrow and the 31st. The above-normal days will clearly outweigh the below-normal days. So that would more than likely put our actual monthly departure close to +1.5 when all is set and done.

 

In regards to our December snowfall, we are dangerously following 1912-13's footsteps in our overall winter performance. In December 1912, around 8" of snow was recorded and that winter failed to muster up 20" of snow. I believe there are even more examples (years) of how decent Decembers were followed by very poor January-March wintry periods.

 

Finally, our only "Hail Mary" -EPO will eventually falter in due time. The -WPO is forecast to weaken, and when that goes, so does the -EPO. Then it becomes a raging torch ala 1997-1998, assuming the -AO and MJO tropical forcing does not materialize.

[+SNfreak21]

As modeled by today's 12z Euro, the arctic shot after New Year's is relatively short. It quickly torches soon after right when a major rainstorm impacts the whole area. Then another period of cold and dry period ensues before another warm-up. Even though this is technically not classed as a La Nina, the pattern damn resembles it in an ample amount of ways. The continued lack of a +PDO is further degrading our sustained cold shots and our chances of an El Nino to develop this winter or next winter. Even PB GFI who was fervently harping on early January for snow and cold, is beginning to lessen his bullish tone.

 

As bluewave noted in this forum today, the PV from Canada is being modeled to not drop down as much as previously thought. As such, it wouldn't surprise me if the edge of the cold gets eaten away by the time next week comes along which will prevent NYC from dropping below 30 degrees for the high. And Central Park has not dropped below 19 degrees so far this winter despite all the effort by the -EPO and our non-La Nina state. In fact, Upton does not anticipate NYC dropping below 21 degrees next week.

 

As for our monthly departures, I have estimated a cumulative 5-degree positive departure between tomorrow and the 31st. The above-normal days will clearly outweigh the below-normal days. So that would more than likely put our actual monthly departure close to +1.5 when all is set and done.

 

In regards to our December snowfall, we are dangerously following 1912-13's footsteps in our overall winter performance. In December 1912, around 8" of snow was recorded and that winter failed to muster up 20" of snow. I believe there are even more examples (years) of how decent Decembers were followed by very poor January-March wintry periods.

 

Finally, our only "Hail Mary" -EPO will eventually falter in due time. The -WPO is forecast to weaken, and when that goes, so does the -EPO. Then it becomes a raging torch ala 1997-1998, assuming the -AO and MJO tropical forcing does not materialize.

That was a Strong El nino year, we are far away from that right now, and if we did warm suddenly in Nino 3.4 we would have a weak to moderate el nino which is great for East coast snow ala 2009-2010. Also, using one analog from 1912-1913 is not enough because we are in an unusual month where we have above average snow, 70+ in December, and above average temp wise (slightly). And how do you talk about a lack of El nino and use 1997-1998 as an example? 

 

And I don't see the -EPO going anywhere with those warm SSTs in the N PAC, this winter is similar to 2008-2009, December had around 6 inches of snow for NYC, we got 8 this month, and it was +0.8 degrees above average that month, we are about to finish around the same depending on the cold we get around NYE and how warm we get Saturday. +PDO periods were also in the 80's and 90's. Do you think those decades were better than the 00's snow wise?