Momza Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I would just like to comment on this once and for all since I have not yet already done so. Few people in this forum or on any weather forum for that matter have the level of passion that I do for weather. Sometimes I let that get the best of me and I get over zealous, but I always admit when I'm wrong and I always take the knowledge from the more experienced posters and mets as valuable knowledge. I have a severe personal issue with a handful of posters that constantly push their own bias agendas. Acting as if they always know or best or that the world owes them something weather wise. Comments such as, "how dare DC get snow when we don't" or "this is a non-event" just because something may personally be a non event for them make my skin boil. I don't know what the answer is honestly. I feel like I've been fighting a one man battle since the Philly and NYC forums split up. I guess I just have to take the high road, swallow my pride, and get over it. I have no bias, other than that I love weather and posting and reading this forum, and I'm sorry if I've offended anyone in doing so. In life, not everyone is going to like your style. Keep posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I love the look of the pattern unfolding after this brief warmup! Cold enough but not too cold to where it'd be dry and not stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 http://www.wimp.com/badmorning/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I just heard on the radio that they are talking about a SuperBowl snowstorm in the east. I also have heard about this all over the internet. What the heck lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I just heard on the radio that they are talking about a SuperBowl snowstorm in the east. I also have heard about this all over the internet. What the heck lol. They have been for over a month now. Ever since the Farmer's Almanac forecast came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 They have been for over a month now. Ever since the Farmer's Almanac forecast came out LOL its so damn annoying. The chances of that happening are slim to none especially with the sparse -NAO. will they're be snow on the ground? Possibly but even thats going to be tough with the pattern thats been occuring this winter thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 They have been for over a month now. Ever since the Farmer's Almanac forecast came out It's really funny because they actually believe it's happening when we have no skill in forecasting for that day. We struggle with 2 day forecasts let alone nearly a month and a half out. The only thing that can be be done is using analogs and climatology to give an overview of that day, past history, average temperatures, snow amounts, and other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I just heard on the radio that they are talking about a SuperBowl snowstorm in the east. I also have heard about this all over the internet. What the heck lol. Just saw a map that has me in the 12-18" area...winning! I can't back that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 from DTs facebook: **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 from DTs facebook: **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg 12z GFS brings the whole vortex south , once past Monday - its just cold period regardless of snow or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 12z GFS brings the whole vortex south , once past Monday - its just cold period regardless of snow or not Yea but can it actually work in tandem if a coastal storm decides to show its face and maybe keep mixing to a minimum? Also worry about suppression if the arctic air becomes that entrenched as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yea but can it actually work in tandem if a coastal storm decides to show its face and maybe keep mixing to a minimum? Also worry about suppression if the arctic air becomes that entrenched as well Dont worry about individual systems , get the cold back in place 1st . The snow will come . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Dont worry about individual systems , get the cold back in place 1st . The snow will come .One of my favorite posters here. You say stuff with conviction and back it up with fact. Also the lack of -NAO has me worried still as we do need some to get those nice snowstorms that lay down a nice blanket of snow in the megalopolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Dont worry about individual systems , get the cold back in place 1st . The snow will come . Yep. Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago we'd have seen as much snow as we had these past 10 days? especially since we had been in such a dry period I think most thought if we do get cold it'll remain dry and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 One of my favorite posters here. You say stuff with conviction and back it up with fact. Also the lack of -NAO has me worried still as we do need some to get those nice snowstorms that lay down a nice blanket of snow in the megalopolis Thanks part 1 , Bolded . If I really new , I would just trade weather derivatives for a living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Euro 2 days later but has D8 Hatteras to BM . Not cold , but that could be a function that the Euro dumps the trough into the West , maybe its bias , but theres a EC storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I just heard on the radio that they are talking about a SuperBowl snowstorm in the east. I also have heard about this all over the internet. What the heck lol. Just saw on the news that the nfl has decided to reschedule the game if there is bad weather. What a joke! They should have thought about poor weather before they booked the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just saw on the news that the nfl has decided to reschedule the game if there is bad weather. What a joke! They should have thought about poor weather before they booked the game. Nation of wussies, I'd love some light snow during the Superbowl. Chances of it actually snowing during the game are very slim, but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just saw on the news that the nfl has decided to reschedule the game if there is bad weather. What a joke! They should have thought about poor weather before they booked the game. They went into it knowing that there was a chance of bad weather, but the allure of the Super Bowl in NY/NJ and the money to be made was too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I don't know what to say about this. http://willitsnow.com/ Whatever gets page views is the business now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just saw on the news that the nfl has decided to reschedule the game if there is bad weather. What a joke! They should have thought about poor weather before they booked the game. Silly. Those bs forecasts for a snow storm are not going to happen. First of all, Farmer's Almanac forecasted a potential "storm" within a 3 day period around the super bowl. Now a storm could mean anything, rain storm, wind storm, snow storm etc. The probability of one of those happening within a 3 day period in the winter aren't as bad as just the probability of getting a snow storm. If there's no snow during the Super Bowl, Farmer's Almanac could use an excuse saying they only called for a storm, not a snow storm. Anyway, though I put 0 stock into anything this far out, the CFS has a cold front moving through the weekend of the super bowl, warm air out ahead. I just like looking at these maps just to see what wacky stuff it shows 1000+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here is an article by Paul Kocin and Company reviewing the Boxing Day Blizzard 2010 . He mentions model uncertainty up till the last minute and we should keep this in mind going forward beginning with next week's potential Christmas storm. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 with the super bowl a month and a half away will the weather be wintry or spring like?...from 1986 to 1991 NYC had a max temp on the 2nd of... 1986...48 1987...50 1988...59* record for 2/2 1989...57 1990...53 1991...51 back in 1985 NYC got 4.3" of morning snow with temps in the 30's...Lets hope it's not like 1961 when it was -2 that morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Here is an article by Paul Kocin and Company reviewing the Boxing Day Blizzard 2010 . He mentions model uncertainty up till the last minute and we should keep this in mind going forward beginning with next week's potential Christmas storm. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf good article. I remember 2 days before, think we were getting nothing...shows you how quick things can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 good article. I remember 2 days before, think we were getting nothing...shows you how quick things can change you can also go back in time right here on this forum and review all the discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 good article. I remember 2 days before, think we were getting nothing...shows you how quick things can change It was also very close to a near miss for us. DC and Baltimore got next to nothing despite being in the bullseye a couple days earlier. Western NJ got 3", Eastern parts got 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 with the super bowl a month and a half away will the weather be wintry or spring like?...from 1986 to 1991 NYC had a max temp on the 2nd of... 1986...48 1987...50 1988...59* record for 2/2 1989...57 1990...53 1991...51 back in 1985 NYC got 4.3" of morning snow with temps in the 30's...Lets hope it's not like 1961 when it was -2 that morning... I think what they are most worried about is temps below 15 and wind during the game with windchills 20 below - that would make it very uncomfortable to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 good article. I remember 2 days before, think we were getting nothing...shows you how quick things can change That really seemed like the miracle storm. 48 hours out I resigned to getting maybe some flurries and that was it. The massive Greenland block then saved that from sliding out to sea and forcing the phase over the MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 good article. I remember 2 days before, think we were getting nothing...shows you how quick things can change I was in Atlantic City like I always am for Christmas (and will be again starting this Monday night) with a bunch of my friends. While all the folks I was there with were gambling and drinking I snuck upstairs to the hotel room around 0z GFS time, got reamed by the wifi charge for internet (because the hotel business center was closed at that hour) and came onto this board to see what the story was because up until that point I still was skeptical due to all the uncertainty in the modeling. I did the same thing for the 0z Euro. Couldn't believe what was being shown considering the waffling that was going on until that 0z run. That's the storm we all deserved to get after hours and hours of model watching over the years hoping for that 1 final run before the storm was going to be the run to show us that snow weenie wet dream. It was the closest thing I ever had to getting revenge for March 2001 in my opinion. You all should have seen the Wright Weather Board for the March 2001 debacle. Some of you here were there, I know this, but many here didn't suffer through that nightmare on that board for that storm lol. It was a fiasco to say the least lol. December 2010's experience made all the suffering worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 February 2nd records for NYC going back to 1869... Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation....snowfall.....est. max snow depth...59 in 1988.......9 in 1881.....42 in 1952......-3 in 1881.....2.98" in 1973.....5.0" in 1874..........17" in 201158 in 1973.....16 in 1971.....41 in 1970......-2 in 1961.....1.15" in 1999.....4.3" in 1985..........10" in 193458 in 1967.....18 in 1885.....40 in 1999.......2 in 1873.............................4.0" in 1895...........9" in 190557 in 1989.....20 in 1961.....40 in 1933.......5 in 1918.............................3.6" in 1955...........8" in 196656 in 1970.....22 in 1918.....40 in 1922.......6 in 1971.............................3.3" in 1916...........8" in 194856 in 1999.....22 in 1898.....39 in 1877.......7 in 1993.............................2.8" in 1966...........8" in 1961 only two days had over an inch of precipation...1973 and 1999 and those were warm rains...The biggest snowfall was 5" set in 1874...1961 had a max of 20...1971 was 16...1971 would be the worst scenario analog...1881 is before the UHI...snow depth could be a problem for parking...1966 had some light snow and temperatures near 30...That wouldn't be a bad outcome...There hasn't been a blizzard on this date since records began in 1869... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.