Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread

[Fantom X]

Correct. Not denying anything. Having an avg. low minimum slightly lower in the south shore when impeding event (rain or snow) is approaching doesn't help much though. On nights where radiational cooling is not optimal, temps island wide are pretty symmetric. Any wind and given the direction it's coming from can determine which parts of the island will be the warmest and coolest.

I lived in port Jeff station and Coram from 1986 to 2007 and now smith point area since 2007.. this is what I have noticed At least by these 2 locales

north

snowier by a good margin

better radiational cooling

avg first freeze Oct 15

Avg last freeze Apr 30

not uncommon to see freezes in May

almost always saw 30s in September

Much warmer daytime highs in spring and summer

Tendency to see low to mid

50s in July for lows on cool night's with lower dewpoints more common

Very rare to see low above 75

Reaching the 90s during the summer was not a problem

lows under 10 more common

notable: -7 low in Jan 2005 morning of blizzard

south

more rain mixed in with many marginal events

only second night after frontal passage with very light norherly winds are ideal for radiational cooling.. when the high moves east and light south flow develops, temps spike

avg first freeze Nov 1

Avg last freeze Apr 10

never seen a freeze after 4/17

Lowest September temp 45

have a hard time reaching 70 until May and 80 until memorial day

only avg 1-2 90 degree days a year

Lows below 60 in July not as common

Quite a few overnights over 75 and even a few recorded over 80

Hard to get below 10 but has happened a few times since I lived here

notable: 21" of snow Dec 2009 blizzard

[NorthShoreWx]

I lived in port Jeff station and Coram from 1986 to 2007 and now smith point area since 2007.. this is what I have noticed At least by these 2 locales

north

snowier by a good margin

better radiational cooling

avg first freeze Oct 15

Avg last freeze Apr 30

not uncommon to see freezes in May

almost always saw 30s in September

Much warmer daytime highs in spring and summer

Tendency to see low to mid

50s in July for lows on cool night's with lower dewpoints more common

Very rare to see low above 75

Reaching the 90s during the summer was not a problem

lows under 10 more common

notable: -7 low in Jan 2005 morning of blizzard

south

more rain mixed in with many marginal events

only second night after frontal passage with very light norherly winds are ideal for radiational cooling.. when the high moves east and light south flow develops, temps spike

avg first freeze Nov 1

Avg last freeze Apr 10

never seen a freeze after 4/17

Lowest September temp 45

have a hard time reaching 70 until May and 80 until memorial day

only avg 1-2 90 degree days a year

Lows below 60 in July not as common

Quite a few overnights over 75 and even a few recorded over 80

Hard to get below 10 but has happened a few times since I lived here

notable: 21" of snow Dec 2009 blizzard

 

Interesting observations.  I have one to add that kind of complements yours that I think is relevant for forecasters.

 

This pertains to my location a little under 2 miles from the sound.  With light northerly winds we don't radiate as well as the middle of the island and the south shore.  The wind stays up more here, it's hard to get it to go calm with a northerly flow and it is off the water. 

 

However...a day or so after the best FOK nights (you all know what those are  ) with high pressure in control but winds swinging S or SW, then we have our coldest clear calm type nights.  Calm nights are the best, but light southerly winds work better than light northerly for radiational cooling assuming the humidity hasn't come up yet...and if it has, that is when we have our highest incidence of black ice.

 

Otherwise, proximity to the Sound is seldom much of an issue here outside of during the fall.  Warmth from the sound killed the Halloween storm 2011 while there were accumulations farther south.  Also our first frost dates are in between what you observed at the 2 locations, but closer to what you've seen on the south shore.

[NorthShoreWx]

Radiational cooling on LI is usually a very shallow layer and can mix out in the blink of an eye.  You can gauge what the temperature is likely to rise to in the short term by looking at the 85 meter temperature on the tower at BNL.  It is often a good guide for gaging whether very cold evening temps will affect rain vs. snow the next morning (the answer is usually "no").

 

This is just a quick cheat and doesn't consider advection of warmer or colder air into the area.

[BxEngine]

30+ car pileup on the Gowanus. Everything is a skating rink.

[jm1220]

While this is definitely true we're also dealing with an incredible amount of posts that contain no constructive criticism, it's just blatant attacks on posters over the most negligible disagreements. There's a respectful way of pointing things out. (I'm obviously not talking about posters who repeatedly post nonsense and weenie maps)

I think the moderation on posters who troll and start bickering wars with other posters, especially mets, needs to be especially strict. First offense warning, second suspension, third banning or something like that, since that often destroys an entire thread and it chases the quality posters away. Weenie/wishcasting posts are a little more tolerable-in my view as long as you are here to try to learn and contribute and not attack other posters, that's fine, as long as it's not completely out of hand and you try to be professional. Weenie posts are all over the forum, but it seems the fighting and bickering are confined mostly to our forum.

[jm1220]

the SNE forum is awesome they know how to have fun over there!   the "Grinch" storm is a perfect name ( the Grinch storm is now saying bah-hum-bug as it floods the east with warm air )

They're quite cliquey and have meet and greets every so often. That works for them but I think there was only an attempt at one for us (admittedly, I couldn't make it that day).

[REDMK6GLI]

They're quite cliquey and have meet and greets every so often. That works for them but I think there was only an attempt at one for us (admittedly, I couldn't make it that day).

I would like to have a G2G sometime in 2014. Somewhere in tri-state so many of us can enjoy it.

[BxEngine]

Have it at jm's house during a borderline snow event.

[jm1220]

Have it at jm's house during a borderline snow event.

Mmmmmm.

[BxEngine]

Mmmmmm.

Bunch of drunks would ease the pain if the snow line lifts north lol

[REDMK6GLI]

Bunch of drunks would ease the pain if the snow line lifts north lol

Great idea we couldve had it this past weekend then :/ but drinking will solve alot of our sorrows during the g2g lol

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Plenty of bars in lb! Last big well performing storm with no mixing issues and some of the most insane drifting you could imagine Boxing Day you guys would kill to be at jms for that one with 60mph gusts ripping in off the bay

[pazzo83]

the most densely populated region of the country has what, a handful of regular met posters? people like yanksfan are the problem. when i was in high school i came to the boards to read posts by people who knew what they were talking about and learn from them. not endless model regurgitations and wishcasts

 

This.

[REDMK6GLI]

This.

X2 the man has a point. I really like the SNE forum to get some good info, they know how to joke and have fun but also publish some fantastic information ( unless the main contributors here post i.e. earthlight, bluewave, isotherm, pb gfi etc. )

[jm1220]

Plenty of bars in lb! Last big well performing storm with no mixing issues and some of the most insane drifting you could imagine Boxing Day you guys would kill to be at jms for that one with 60mph gusts ripping in off the bay

That was a crazy one, for sure. That was probably the windiest snowstorm I've been in.

[Guest Imperator]

And you get less people leaving the board when people like you are leashed. If all goes well you'll be gone soon.

 

I really dont care what you or anyone else who dont really know me in real life think of me. It's an internet forum and not a workplace or social hangout. That being said, what Michael (Forky) said is 100% correct. I dont really post because I really dont have anything to contribute other than an occasional observation and I mostly read to try to feed my interest of a weather side hobby. People like Yanksfan ruin the narrative and scare people with valuable info or insight away and therefore ruining my experience. I think this past weekend's storm had the best quality posts and insight in this forum since the Eastern days. Why? Because of good moderating and professionals or semi professionals not being drowned out by one or two people who are trying to be something that they are not.   Weather isnt my career, wanna-be career or something that is trying to be a diversion from my career. If I seem snobby, I apologize. Im actually a down to earth guy if you interact with me in the real world.

[REDMK6GLI]

I really dont care what you or anyone else who dont really know me in real life think of me. It's an internet forum and not a workplace or social hangout. That being said, what Michael (Forky) said is 100% correct. I dont really post because I really dont have anything to contribute other than an occasional observation and I mostly read to try to feed my interest of a weather side hobby. People like Yanksfan ruin the narrative and scare people with valuable info or insight away and therefore ruining my experience. I think this past weekend's storm had the best quality posts and insight in this forum since the Eastern days. Why? Because of good moderating and professionals or semi professionals not being drowned out by one or two people who are trying to be something that they are not. Weather isnt my career, wanna-be career or something that is trying to be a diversion from my career. If I seem snobby, I apologize. Im actually a down to earth guy if you interact with me in the real world.

To add to this internet forums are always going to have internet bullies, elitists and ego-centric personalities that you MUST expect. There are good and bad times on this forum like every other one out there and the real problems sorted out eventually

[SnoSki14]

If the EPO doesn't reload after it neutralizes then it won't be too long before we see widespread zonal Pacific air over the CONUS. I see no signs of any blocking at all. There tends to be a lag time when the EPO goes neutral to when we start seeing Pacific air come in by maybe a week or two. but it will come if it doesn't go negative.

 

I hope this doesn't turn out to be a less extreme 1989/1990 like winter or those two winters where NYC failed to hit 20" despite over 8" in December. 

[PB GFI]

If the EPO doesn't reload after it neutralizes then it won't be too long before we see widespread zonal Pacific air over the CONUS. I see no signs of any blocking at all. There tends to be a lag time when the EPO goes neutral to when we start seeing Pacific air come in by maybe a week or two. but it will come if it doesn't go negative.

 

I hope this doesn't turn out to be a less extreme 1989/1990 like winter or those two winters where NYC failed to hit 20" despite over 8" in December. 

The European Ensembles and its Control run are Cold  D 7 - 15 , dong let 1 warmup in 6 weeks scare you . 

The PNA is goin positive so theres no Zonal flow in the `15 days so far .

[IsentropicLift]

the most densely populated region of the country has what, a handful of regular met posters? people like yanksfan are the problem. when i was in high school i came to the boards to read posts by people who knew what they were talking about and learn from them. not endless model regurgitations and wishcasts

Thank you sir! Happy Holidays to you!

[rsteff]

Thank you sir! Happy Holidays to you!

The forky guy is not a happy guy

[REDMK6GLI]

The forky guy is not a happy guy

Forky is a resident troll, he does provide some information that is constructive when he needs to

[SnoSki14]

Forky is a resident troll, he does provide some information that is constructive when he needs to

Forky's also a met and can often provide deep insight that many overlook simply because they don't wanna hear it, specifically when it comes to warmth and no snow/bad patterns.

[IsentropicLift]

Forky's also a met and can often provide deep insight that many overlook simply because they don't wanna hear it, specifically when it comes to warmth and no snow/bad patterns.

Forky is the greatest poster/met in the history of this forum. His verification scores are better than the Euro inside 72 hours.

[REDMK6GLI]

Forky's also a met and can often provide deep insight that many overlook simply because they don't wanna hear it, specifically when it comes to warmth and no snow/bad patterns.

I know ant was just making a statement regarding hid behavior. He is very bright and is pretty accurate whether we like the news or not

[Isotherm]

I really dont care what you or anyone else who dont really know me in real life think of me. It's an internet forum and not a workplace or social hangout. That being said, what Michael (Forky) said is 100% correct. I dont really post because I really dont have anything to contribute other than an occasional observation and I mostly read to try to feed my interest of a weather side hobby. People like Yanksfan ruin the narrative and scare people with valuable info or insight away and therefore ruining my experience. I think this past weekend's storm had the best quality posts and insight in this forum since the Eastern days. Why? Because of good moderating and professionals or semi professionals not being drowned out by one or two people who are trying to be something that they are not.   Weather isnt my career, wanna-be career or something that is trying to be a diversion from my career. If I seem snobby, I apologize. Im actually a down to earth guy if you interact with me in the real world.

 

 

Good to hear you're down to earth in real life. Since you've been so willing to dish out criticism, I'll give you something constructive. Personally attacking other members and carrying an air of arrogance is a bigger turn-off and deterrent than someone who posts model data with a snow bias. You're not making yourself look any better to everyone else on the board by acting like a policeman when in reality your post history has shown that you need to be policed. So if you want to appear as the down to earth guy you are in real life, I'd highly recommend sticking to weather observations and discussions as you've said. The reason I'm commenting on this is b/c I didn't believe the balance of comments were fair in this thread. We all come here for weather discussion, yes, some will post more "weeni-ish" things than others, but that's only because of their passion for the hobby. If you cannot tolerate that, I'd shudder to imagine the lack of tolerance in real life. But people who talk down to others are much more likely to be viewed negatively than someone like Yanksfan. 

[BxEngine]

I love lamp

[IsentropicLift]

I would just like to comment on this once and for all since I have not yet already done so. Few people in this forum or on any weather forum for that matter have the level of passion that I do for weather. Sometimes I let that get the best of me and I get over zealous, but I always admit when I'm wrong and I always take the knowledge from the more experienced posters and mets as valuable knowledge. I have a severe personal issue with a handful of posters that constantly push their own bias agendas. Acting as if they always know or best or that the world owes them something weather wise. Comments such as, "how dare DC get snow when we don't" or "this is a non-event" just because something may personally be a non event for them make my skin boil. I don't know what the answer is honestly. I feel like I've been fighting a one man battle since the Philly and NYC forums split up. I guess I just have to take the high road, swallow my pride, and get over it. I have no bias, other than that I love weather and posting and reading this forum, and I'm sorry if I've offended anyone in doing so.

[Guest Imperator]

Good to hear you're down to earth in real life. Since you've been so willing to dish out criticism, I'll give you something constructive. Personally attacking other members and carrying an air of arrogance is a bigger turn-off and deterrent than someone who posts model data with a snow bias. You're not making yourself look any better to everyone else on the board by acting like a policeman when in reality your post history has shown that you need to be policed. So if you want to appear as the down to earth guy you are in real life, I'd highly recommend sticking to weather observations and discussions as you've said. The reason I'm commenting on this is b/c I didn't believe the balance of comments were fair in this thread. We all come here for weather discussion, yes, some will post more "weeni-ish" things than others, but that's only because of their passion for the hobby. If you cannot tolerate that, I'd shudder to imagine the lack of tolerance in real life. But people who talk down to others are much more likely to be viewed negatively than someone like Yanksfan. 

Your point is taken, and nothing is meant to be personal. Again, I apologize if it was taken that way. I think people take their internet lives way too seriously.  As far as "being policed": Like I said, I really do not care if people on an internet forum like me or not. The relationships that matter to me are the ones I have in real life. If I would get banned from here, I wouldn't dedicate a millesecond of regret about it. Again, I enjoy reading informed posts on here and I treat this forum as a running in depth news article about the weather, of which a have a passing interest in. I consider the bad posts that I have discussed before as an interuption of a good running dialogue thus prompting the negative posts from me, the reader.    

[IrishRob17]

I love lamp

Loud noises.