IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't pretend to be an expert. What I know is self taught and I've learned a lot just from reading this forum the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't pretend to be an expert. What I know is self taught and I've learned a lot just from reading this forum the past 5 years. Dude you're fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I didn't feel like responding in the 2/9-10 thread because this is a more overarching topic. I find it absolutely amazing that there are people complaining that forecasts are not "exact enough". Models aren't perfect, as illustrated by the numerous late breaking storms this year. One of the things they are worst at is forecasting precipitation amounts. The idea that meteorologists should be any more exact than they can is silly, imho. The key is to be as honest with the audience as possible. If that means 1-3, fine. 2-3 fine. Or perhaps my favorite, "4-8, but we think 5 is the most likely". Nothing wrong with admitting that forecasts are prone to error. My two cents. Good post. We had folks complaining today about 1 - 3" snow forecasts being too wide a range. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good post. We had folks complaining today about 1 - 3" snow forecasts being too wide a range. ! 1-3" is a perfectly reasonable range for an event like this. I feel like the guy who hates that range acted like it's the same as saying 12-36" . The low number times 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ...I feel like the guy who hates that range acted like it's the same as saying 12-36" . The low number times 3. Yes I think you explained his point. It was about precision. A 1 - 3" forecast and a 12 - 36" being equally precise for their respective forecasts. I don't agree with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Even though there are no real sure fire threats, I am amazed at the "train" of snow presently on the radar at our latitude across the US. I never seen this before. Sometimes, a front or other system may have this, but its usually freezing rain or mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NWS Upton with 82.6 inches of snow in the last 365 calendar days (February 8th, 2013 - February 7th 2014). Islip / MacArthur Airport with 79.8 inches of snow in that same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS shows another snowstorm for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS shows another snowstorm for next weekend A warmer pattern seems inevitable but there's a lot of resistance before that happens so we could see more snow before things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hard to believe snow will be here in a few hours still mostly sunny out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 since last Sunday, this board has been awful. So many terrible posts by people who really don't have any clue what they're talking about....is it just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cold continues with high temps here of 28 both yesterday and today after a low of 16 this morning... now running about a -3 departure for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NWS Upton with 82.6 inches of snow in the last 365 calendar days (February 8th, 2013 - February 7th 2014). Islip / MacArthur Airport with 79.8 inches of snow in that same period. 79.3" during that same period here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hahaha You can always tell how a model run is going to go by the type of folks who start posting in the thread. An amped up coastal hugger and you get all the NW posters in here saying how great it looks, but if you get an offshore track then all the I-95 and coastal folks start posting. What's great for one crowd may not always be great for another, so keep that in mind when getting all excited about a particular model run. The focus when doing pbp and analysis should be on NYC as the epicenter anyway, not your backyard in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can we get some more mods please? We have spam from other boards, discussions about zywts, and arguments about what constitutes the metro area in a storm discussion thread. Earthlight and Doug cant be here all the time (and sickman is praying for spring and probably fashioning a scratching device for his leg cast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro shows 6+ for NYC and more to the north and west Models also have a storm for next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro shows 6+ for NYC and more to the north and west Models also have a storm for next Sunday I took down the last reply after looking at the Plymouth state maps . nite and day with WB . Worlds apart You just need the SLP 50 to 75 miles east of AC or we can flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i wish the nam wasn't the first model to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i wish the nam wasn't the first model to come outPeople are discussing the minutia of the 84hr panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope we break 1995-1996 but I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope we break 1995-1996 but I doubt it Don't we have another storm coming in over the weekend to add to totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope we break 1995-1996 but I doubt it Lol. I'd need 28 inches since where I was in Howell, NJ had 27 though not too far west of me got 32 inches. So technically I'd need 33 inches to outclass 1996 for me personally. Not likely lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't we have another storm coming in over the weekend to add to totals?I've heard Sunday from the DC crew. That might be our last chance for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't we have another storm coming in over the weekend to add to totals? Possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 and u guys wonder why us nw folks want a track inside the bm with all the models showing such a tight nw precip shield I fully expect to see the same cut off that we've been seeing all year. It's been every storm. Why is this going to be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I fully expect to see the same cut off that we've been seeing all year. It's been every storm. Why is this going to be any different. Well we still have the Euro. Heres to hoping the Euro hugs the coast and makes landfall on LI lol.. This NW fringe stuff the last few yrs is a joke. When coastal C NJ has as much snow as you do and you average double they do you know something is up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol. I'd need 28 inches since where I was in Howell, NJ had 27 though not too far west of me got 32 inches. So technically I'd need 33 inches to outclass 1996 for me personally. Not likely lol. I think he meant the total for the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think he meant the total for the whole winter Oh in that case yes that is surely within reach. Some folks may get there already from just the Thursday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Got a flight out of LGA on friday morning at 7am. Hoping I don't get cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh in that case yes that is surely within reach. Some folks may get there already from just the Thursday storm! Still a ways to go but certainly within reach all said and done. I believe it took ewr til late march or early April to finally break their record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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