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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


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SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the temperature at Kickoff?

Over/Under 32 degrees Fahrenheit

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the lowest temperature during the game?

Over/Under 28 degrees Fahrenheit

What do you guys think...based on everything ive read on here i say its time to lay down the mortgage on under :)

edit: Just swiched to 32/28

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SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the temperature at Kickoff?

Over/Under 34 degrees Fahrenheit

SUPER BOWL XLVIII SPECIALS – What will be the lowest temperature during the game?

Over/Under 31 degrees Fahrenheit

What do you guys think...based on everything ive read on here i say its time to lay down the mortgage on under :)

In the teens.

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record low temp for this date at New Brunswick is 10 below zero in 1984.

 

numerous sub zero days from the late 70s thru mid 1980s.

 

i suspect we're entering such a period again... just based on the prolonged absence of extreme cold.

Haven't been below zero here since 1994( have been to zero since then but not below) Was 2 degrees earlier in month... maybe do it next week.

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I don't get it....even with well-below freezing temps for day time highs, the current snow pack still manages to shrink. Can direct sunlight melt the snow even if it's only in the teens?

it's likely compacting, we got a lot of snow from very little QPF so the snow is settling, the last few inches should bullet proof.
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I don't get it....even with well-below freezing temps for day time highs, the current snow pack still manages to shrink. Can direct sunlight melt the snow even if it's only in the teens?

Sublimation...although im sure certain surfaces get warm enough in the sun to melt snow as well.

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I wonder if we could set some snow cover records, there's no big warm up in the foreseeable future, and I can see the snow pack lasting well into February with perhaps several more inches to add on top of it.

In winter 2010-2011 we basically had snow cover here from Boxing Day through late February. It also set up the bad flooding that Spring.

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HPC from March 2001
 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC
2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC..

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...

WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A
BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO
THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF
NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN
THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL
PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD
VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS
MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500
MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN
INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP
COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS
STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL
TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY
REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO. THE 60HOUR ETA HAS
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL
STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS
FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP
LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500
MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH
BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS THAT THE MAIN VORT
ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500
MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.
THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-
STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS. WE FEEL THAT THE
AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT
INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND
..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE
THUNDERSNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS
MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV
INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR
AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.



FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW
ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF
COAST REGION.

 

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...why are we posting something that happened 13 years ago?

Probably bc that write-up was for the March 2001 debacle (one of the worst busts since the Internet became big). I though it was an interesting read. 60 hours out they were expecting 1-2 feet of snow from VA through NJ/NY all the way through SNE. Most areas were lucky to pull off 2-3".

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