earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Agreed, it will only be bad luck that we don't see much. Dec 2010 was a classic example of what I described above...myself and a few others were screaming and jumping about the pattern but in reality it took two whole weeks before we got what we wanted. The changes take a while to work their way into the pattern and even then, you need the PV to retreat and let up a bit before the disturbances coming out of the Pacific can really work their magic. But having this pattern change go down as all of the models are agreeing it will...is essentially ensuring us much higher than normal chances for winter storms beginning in 5 days time and not ending until early Feb at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Love how the best discussion is going on in the banter thread. Can't make this sh*t up. Anyway...the models are now starting to show the ridge connection and higher than normal heights taking over the Davis Straight and Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Agreed, it will only be bad luck that we don't see much. thing that worries me is the storm track will be too far south across the southern mid- atlantic because of the polar vortex coming too far south -we need phasing - we could get that in a positive TNH pattern with a negative NAO developing over top of the polar vortex near Greenland forecasted in this upcoming pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Love how the best discussion is going on in the banter thread. Can't make this sh*t up. Anyway...the models are now starting to show the ridge connection and higher than normal heights taking over the Davis Straight and Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f240.gif That's when things can get really exciting here. Hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dec 2010 was a classic example of what I described above...myself and a few others were screaming and jumping about the pattern but in reality it took two whole weeks before we got what we wanted. The changes take a while to work their way into the pattern and even then, you need the PV to retreat and let up a bit before the disturbances coming out of the Pacific can really work their magic. But having this pattern change go down as all of the models are agreeing it will...is essentially ensuring us much higher than normal chances for winter storms beginning in 5 days time and not ending until early Feb at the earliest. first we need it to get cold which it will...second we need moisture from the Gulf...with the same set up as December's storm we could be looking at a big snow and ice event down the road...if the pattern really changes with strong blocking it will be a great month for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That's when things can get really exciting here. Hope that verifies. It's on all ensemble guidance...Euro is even more robust with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dec 2010 was a classic example of what I described above...myself and a few others were screaming and jumping about the pattern but in reality it took two whole weeks before we got what we wanted. The changes take a while to work their way into the pattern and even then, you need the PV to retreat and let up a bit before the disturbances coming out of the Pacific can really work their magic. But having this pattern change go down as all of the models are agreeing it will...is essentially ensuring us much higher than normal chances for winter storms beginning in 5 days time and not ending until early Feb at the earliest. Yes. This isn't the same pattern progression we saw in 2010, with a retrograding -NAO block. But typically, when we discuss a pattern change, the first few threats tend to peter out. Before we get something significant. This is pattern progression similar what saw before Jan 3 threat this year. The -EPO building into Artic regions, causing the PV to drop into SE Canada. Only this pattern looks to sustain itself longer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yes. This isn't the same pattern progression we saw in 2010, with a retrograding -NAO block. But typically, when we discuss a pattern change, the first few threats tend to peter out. Before we get some significant. This is pattern progression similar what saw before Jan 3 threat this year. The -EPO building into Artic regions, causing the PV to drop. Only this pattern looks to sustain itself longer this time. PLUS we may actually have a varying degree of blocking with this pattern as well when the threats start making themselves known when the PV lessens its grip on the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I remember that we had a close call right before the Boxing Day blizzard. The models had been keying in on the wave before it for a few days before they lost it. I remember guys like Earthlight stating over and over again that the pattern was like a powder keg and that it was just a matter of when and not if. We continue to see a steady stream of shortwaves and the high latitude blocking beginning to show up is very exciting. This all of course doesn't mean that we're going to end up with another major threat every week, but if you can get that PV to elongate north to south over central Canada, it's going to amplify the ridge out west and short waves coming over the top will have plenty of room to dive down and amplify. Like others have said, you don't want the PV overhead, you want to be on the periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's on all ensemble guidance...Euro is even more robust with it. Is warming up briefly and raining still a possibility in this upcoming pattern instead of seeing snow events. I would imagine there could be a few sneaky milder days in this cold spell as there always tends to be, usually prior to a reload period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That's when things can get really exciting here. Hope that verifies. A full week of banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 A full week of banter? If so this has been some pretty damn informative banter this morning haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Is warming up briefly and raining still a possibility in this upcoming pattern instead of seeing snow events. I would imagine there could be a few sneaky milder days in this cold spell as there always tends to be, usually prior to a reload period. Its Snow or no, there is no Rain modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If so this has been some pretty damn informative banter this morning haha Unbeatable banter....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Its Snow or no, there is no Rain modeled Hopefully and it looks like today will be the mildest day for the next several weeks and it's all downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unbeatable banter....... Infamous banter! Haha And how about yanksfan27 not being public enemy #1 here lately. Last month he was getting treated like the red headed step child in here. Hes been pretty damn informative and on his game lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Love how the best discussion is going on in the banter thread. Can't make this sh*t up. Anyway...the models are now starting to show the ridge connection and higher than normal heights taking over the Davis Straight and Greenland. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f240.gif This has really been on those maps for a couple of days already. Seems more pronounced now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Infamous banter! Haha And how about yanksfan27 not being public enemy #1 here lately. Last month he was getting treated like the red headed step child in here. Hes been pretty damn informative and on his game lately Because he's 5 posted I believe, so he has to make them count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Infamous banter! Haha And how about yanksfan27 not being public enemy #1 here lately. Last month he was getting treated like the red headed step child in here. Hes been pretty damn informative and on his game lately Thanks for the compliment, I've tried to change my posting style and be less argumentative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice agreement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks for the compliment, I've tried to change my posting style and be less argumentative. Unless your running for office, all you need here is knowledge, and respect of others and their opinions. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks for the compliment, I've tried to change my posting style and be less argumentative. it shows as someone who mostly reads the board........i enjoy your posts now fyi a lot of us just come here to read and follow along the play by play of the model runs you do a good job with the model runs in my opinion just my 2 cents.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice agreement here The high latitude blocking signals are definitely showing up and the EPO ridging is crazy. Also can't wait for the media to start talking about Polar Vortex: The sequel and of course the Super Bowl weather outlook, which actually has a good chance of being at the very least quite cold and potentially snowy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Thanks for the compliment, I've tried to change my posting style and be less argumentative. Internet forums in general are difficult to some to grasp as far as individual behavior. The way you post may not have come off as respectful but for all intents and purposes it just sounded that way when you didnt mean for it. Your knowledge hasnt been incorrect it has been pretty accurate and therefore your input is appreciated. Some people just have a hard time with personal attacks or making a statement less offensive in correcting someone, you have gotten ALOT better at that although you never really were insulting somebody vindictively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nice agreement here Powder keg next to you a fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 What's with all the doom and gloom about the upcoming pattern? Chances are it will produce at points where the PV relaxes. I still feel the January 26th-28th period needs to be monitored as this exact thing happens prior to the PV reloading. Just something to keep an eye on. I personally don't see any threats prior to this due to kickerfest 2014. We might have a suppressed patten for a bit but that usually spells a larger system when the pattern relaxes. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Powder keg next to you a fire? The -AO is a very good sign-we would be in a great spot if the ridging would link up over the pole and the PV is displaced south. Hopefully we can see more ridging take hole over Davis Straight-that would be the best position for us to have a chance at a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 What's with all the doom and gloom about the upcoming pattern? Chances are it will produce at points where the PV relaxes. I still feel the January 26th-28th period needs to be monitored as this exact thing happens prior to the PV reloading. Just something to keep an eye on. I personally don't see any threats prior to this due to kickerfest 2014. We might have a suppressed patten for a bit but that usually spells a larger system when the pattern relaxes. Stay tuned.I am quitely excited for a BIG encore once the peak of the PV retreats/ elongates and allows for the blocking, +PNA, -EPO and the development of a -NAO as well. That 26th-28th time period on may be our finest hour(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Powder keg next to you a fire? baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 baby steps Ill correct that lol, meant over time this pattern resembles a pattern that will eventually birth something pretty damn big for the EC not an immediate step into the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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