wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I was watching NIck Gregory tonight and he said the pattern coming up will be ripe for not 1 but many opportunities of snow.I was reading earthlight on Amwx and he said the same thing days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Such a nasty day out there..40 degrees overcast damp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 all this cloying hyperbole over the pattern in 10 days. let me know when it looks like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 or this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 or this: Exactly-I'm sure it will get quite cold for many under this pattern, but I don't see the big snow opportunities unless heights rise over the Davis Straight and Greenland. If anything, it may cause too much suppression and we're just left cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Exactly-I'm sure it will get quite cold for many under this pattern, but I don't see the big snow opportunities unless heights rise over the Davis Straight and Greenland. If anything, it may cause too much suppression and we're just left cold and dry. Define big snows ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Define big snows ? Maybe clippers that can drop up to a few inches, but I don't see anything along the lines of 1/2 this year or worse unless the NAO cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 UNC W , I am borrowing this for a second . From UNC I broke down the 31 10" snowfalls we got since 1956 and this is what it shows... 11 storms had a -AO+PNA-NAO...3/20/58...12/11/60...2/6/78...2/11/83...1/8/96...12/30/00...1/25/04...12/19/09...2/9/10...2/25/10...1/26/11... ..5 storms had a +AO+PNA-NAO..3/18/56...2/3/61...1/12/64...12/5/03...1/25/05... ..4 storms had a +AO+PNA+NAO 12/21/59...2/6/67...2/4/95...2/16/03... ..4 storms had a -AO+PNA+NAO. 1/19/61...1/19/78...2/11/06...2/9/13... ..4 storms had a -AO-PNA+NAO.. 3/3/60...2/9/69...2/19/79...2/11/94... ..2 storms had a +AO-PNA+NAO. 3/13/93...2/16/96... ..1 storms had a -AO-PNA-NAO.. 12/26/10... ..0 storms had a +AO-PNA-NAO... 14 of 31 10 inch or greater snows that have happened in the last 60 years have happened with POS NAO that's 45 percent . Half for the lack of a better phrase . There is this dogma out there that WE NEED A NEG NAO otherwise they are just clippers and crud . History is showing you the differences are slight . I believe a 10 inch snowstorm in KNYC are major .If you are looking for the 20 inch plus from the Mid Atlantic to New England than you have a point . It has been a few years since a 20 day period has looked this good .Need patience If it doesn't snow it may not just be the Atlantic ,there are other factors to look at but I really believe there will be multiple 6 inch plus events even in LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 A lot of doom and gloom over the upcoming pattern for no reason on here and the New England forums. Would you rather it just torch with no chance at any snow at all? At least the cold will be in place for snowfall opportunities. There have been plenty of significant snowfalls even with a +NAO by the way. A negative NAO would cause major suppression if the PV is so close by, so I'm not sure I'd like that either unless some wanna relive February 5-6, 2010 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Who cares about big snow. Just give me a moderate storm. People are really pessimistic about this pattern for snow. I don't get why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 UNC W , I am borrowing this for a second . From UNC I broke down the 31 10" snowfalls we got since 1956 and this is what it shows... 11 storms had a -AO+PNA-NAO...3/20/58...12/11/60...2/6/78...2/11/83...1/8/96...12/30/00...1/25/04...12/19/09...2/9/10...2/25/10...1/26/11... ..5 storms had a +AO+PNA-NAO..3/18/56...2/3/61...1/12/64...12/5/03...1/25/05... ..4 storms had a +AO+PNA+NAO 12/21/59...2/6/67...2/4/95...2/16/03... ..4 storms had a -AO+PNA+NAO. 1/19/61...1/19/78...2/11/06...2/9/13... ..4 storms had a -AO-PNA+NAO.. 3/3/60...2/9/69...2/19/79...2/11/94... ..2 storms had a +AO-PNA+NAO. 3/13/93...2/16/96... ..1 storms had a -AO-PNA-NAO.. 12/26/10... ..0 storms had a +AO-PNA-NAO... 14 of 31 10 inch or greater snows that have happened in the last 60 years have happened with POS NAO that's 45 percent . Half for the lack of a better phrase . There is this dogma out there that WE NEED A NEG NAO otherwise they are just clippers and crud . History is showing you the differences are slight . I believe a 10 inch snowstorm in KNYC are major .If you are looking for the 20 inch plus from the Mid Atlantic to New England than you have a point . It has been a few years since a 20 day period has looked this good .Need patience If it doesn't snow it may not just be the Atlantic ,there are other factors to look at but I really believe there will be multiple 6 inch plus events even in LB 24 of 31 had a plus pna...as long as the pna is positive we have a good chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 24 of 31 had a plus pna...as long as the pna is positive we have a good chance... Much more important IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Define big snows ? do I have to get the list of 12 inch plus storms out again ?- there have only been 36 in 144 years - thats the definition of "big snows" until we can get some consistency on multiple model runs of one developing - there are NO big snows in sight .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 do I have to get the list of 12 inch plus storms out again ?- there have only been 36 in 144 years - thats the definition of "big snows" until we can get some consistency on multiple model runs of one developing - there are NO big snows in sight .... I used UNC example of 10 inches at KNYC 14 of 31 have happened with a POS NAO since 1956 . Think people overvalue and focus too much on the Atlantic , lot of factors get you there His argument was its a result of the Atlantic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Will the extreme cold be ushered in with just a front or a storm(trigger mechanism)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Will the extreme cold be ushered in with just a front or a storm(trigger mechanism)? Thats what we are all trying to fiqure out here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Who cares about big snow. Just give me a moderate storm. People are really pessimistic about this pattern for snow. I don't get why.Yesterday and tomorrow they will be bullish. Hang on. We have a long ways to go. Snow is rare, so saying it won't snow is easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Very quite with such great potential, I know we are in model lull but so quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 (Cat 2 Score of 3.31) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1352-0-06457200-1389920381.jpg (Cat 2 score of 2.95) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-1352-0-93957200-1389937562.jpg You kind of have to admit that two KU's before February is impressive. Even with the short to medium range looking dim (00z GFS/ECMWF showing relatively dry conditions through the 25th), I'll still go out on a limb and say that we should wind up with a total of four by the time winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I guess the Tuesday-Wednesday storm for next week is pretty much dead? I see GFS shows snow from a clipper next Friday, but that's a long way off. At least a long lasting cold pattern will settle in, so we're likely to get snow at some point in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Worst case is cold and dry to brief warm ups and rain and back to cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Warm up the snowblowers, sh*t just got real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Warm up the snowblowers, sh*t just got real. The DGEX always sniffs out the big ones, it had Sandy making landfall on Cape May for 2543 straight runs and never wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The DGEX always sniffs out the big ones, it had Sandy making landfall on Cape May for 2543 straight runs and never wavered. I always say it can be useful when used the right way. When consistent, it usually is correct in sniffing out the threats. In the summer, it always shows the big heat waves with accurate 2m temp depictions for 2500 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I always say it can be useful when used the right way. When consistent, it usually is correct in sniffing out the threats. In the summer, it always shows the big heat waves with accurate 2m temp depictions for 2500 runs in a row.John next weekend sure does look VERY appetizing for something pretty big from philly up to maine. Next week is going to fun for tracking storms to say the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 I always say it can be useful when used the right way. When consistent, it usually is correct in sniffing out the threats. In the summer, it always shows the big heat waves with accurate 2m temp depictions for 2500 runs in a row. how many runs in a row now has this model shown next weekends storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 John next weekend sure does look VERY appetizing for something pretty big from philly up to maine. Next week is going to fun for tracking storms to say the very least We are going to need to be patient. This is a classic evolution of a pattern like this with the polar vortex dropping south before it elongates. Everybody will start screaming cold and dry, cold and dry, the pattern busted, etc etc. And all of a sudden as the PV moves north and/or elongates, you'll start seeing the parade of threats showing up on the model guidance. It is almost like an instant replay every time we go through a pattern like this. Patience, patience, patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 how many runs in a row now has this model shown next weekends storm ? This is the first one I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We are going to need to be patient. This is a classic evolution of a pattern like this with the polar vortex dropping south before it elongates. Everybody will start screaming cold and dry, cold and dry, the pattern busted, etc etc. And all of a sudden as the PV moves north and/or elongates, you'll start seeing the parade of threats showing up on the model guidance. It is almost like an instant replay every time we go through a pattern like this. Patience, patience, patience. Agreed, it will only be bad luck that we don't see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We are going to need to be patient. This is a classic evolution of a pattern like this with the polar vortex dropping south before it elongates. Everybody will start screaming cold and dry, cold and dry, the pattern busted, etc etc. And all of a sudden as the PV moves north and/or elongates, you'll start seeing the parade of threats showing up on the model guidance. It is almost like an instant replay every time we go through a pattern like this. Patience, patience, patience. Absolutely totally agree, this pattern as far as storm potential should be peaking as we head closer to february as the PV shouldnt be so overwhelming while still having the cold air supply readily available for the coastal threats should they decide to develop. Also the wild card is the stratospheric warming whether or not it helps to establish more than transient blocking as we head closer to february to aid in east coast bombogenesis and not having the pattern so progressive. Key words with this pattern-patience and baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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