SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Interestingly enough this big "thaw" only lasts about 4 days it seems. We only made it into the mid 30's today (forecast was low 40's) and by Wednesday we already have a snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Really bad drought out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 ...is winter over?..i don't think so..but i think we are NOT going to see the conditions that we had earlier this month..below 0 temps, a very cold snowstorm(12"+ ),daytime highs around 10 *..a great stretch of winter weather thats going to be hard to beat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 ...is winter over?..i don't think so..but i think we are NOT going to see the conditions that we had earlier this month..below 0 temps, a very cold snowstorm(12"+ ),daytime highs around 10 *..a great stretch of winter weather thats going to be hard to beat.. Really going out on a limb here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Really going out on a limb here. I agree with you - it seems like in this forum its an all or nothing mentality as is witnessed by the lack of posting the last few days because there are no major events on the horizon only light to moderate snow events this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I agree with you - it seems like in this forum its an all or nothing mentality as is witnessed by the lack of posting the last few days because there are no major events on the horizon only light to moderate snow events this week Well, everyone is usually interested in the high impact events (myself included). But I'm with you guys, and the upcoming pattern looks pretty good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This winter needs at least one 12" event to make it memorable. I'm tired of these run of the mill 3-6" systems up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 This winter needs at least one 12" event to make it memorable. I'm tired of these run of the mill 3-6" systems up here. Hate to say this BUT there have only been 36 one foot or greater snowstorms in NYC in recorded history since 1869 - some folks here I think don't realize this - the 3 - 5.9 inch events are the norm and common around the immediate metro area http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html In fact to get an even better handle on snowstorm amounts in NYC and really bring us back to earth this is the list of 6 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1869 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Hate to say this BUT there have only been 27 one foot or greater snowstorms in NYC in recorded history since 1869 - some folks here I think don't realize this - the 3 - 5.9 inch events are the norm and common around the immediate metro area http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/footplussnow.html In fact to get an even better handle on snowstorm amounts in NYC and really bring us back to earth this is the list of 6 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1869 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html They forgot to add Boxing Day 2010 to that over 6" list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I agree with you - it seems like in this forum its an all or nothing mentality as is witnessed by the lack of posting the last few days because there are no major events on the horizon only light to moderate snow events this week Would somebody maybe be able to create a Euro weeklies thread/Ensemble thread like they have in the phillywx forum? Tombo updates the threads on just about a daily basis (2x a week for the weeklies). We definitely have the mets to do it, if anyone would like to volunteer to post updates on those, that would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Both the 15 day Euro and GFS ensembles bring true Arctic air back into the area the weekend of the 25th and 26 th The cold that comes this Wed to Sun is nothing to sneeze at and will be below normal for the period but the some real cold may be showing back up in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Really everything is going to be moving in favor of cold and snow over the next 1-2 weeks. EPO going negative again, MJO entering favorable phases, continuation of stratospheric warming, some indications of transient type blocking...etc. It will take some patience, but we're lucky the reload is happening in mid Jan instead of mid Feb. We have plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 Really everything is going to be moving in favor of cold and snow over the next 1-2 weeks. EPO going negative again, MJO entering favorable phases, continuation of stratospheric warming, some indications of transient type blocking...etc. It will take some patience, but we're lucky the reload is happening in mid Jan instead of mid Feb. We have plenty of time. exactly because after mid feb we start to encounter other obstacles mainly length of daylight and sun angle issues as we head towards March especially we are now about to enter "prime time" around here Jan 15 through Feb 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Check out the D 15 on the GFS if you thought the extreme cold was one and done the op now looks like the Euro and the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Models busted today with cloud cover. Most models had clear skies but it's mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I just hope it's not cold and dry. Looks like that potential next week is shot and there are few if any threats further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I just hope it's not cold and dry. Looks like that potential next week is shot and there are few if any threats further out. The potential is high for the upcoming pattern. The indicies are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The GFS doesn't even have a warmup in the mid to long range. The PNA is on the rise. The GEFS also looks sweet. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The GFS doesn't even have a warmup in the mid to long range. The PNA is on the rise. The GEFS also looks sweet. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Looks interesting (12z) hr 264 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 He starts out good with "The fact is that no single weather episode can either prove or disprove global climate change", but then he gets into wishcasting mode. Not that it is implausible, but history tells us that these types of cold episodes happen...and they used to happen more frequently. The implication that this current outbreak is related to a pattern of increased PV displacement due to GW is over the top. Before the GW cabal jumps on this like a bunch of angry hornets, the above opinion is not intended to express belief or disbelief in the overall state of GW. It is a criticism of the video based on the bolded above. So stand down, He starts out good with "The fact is that no single weather episode can either prove or disprove global climate change", but then he gets into wishcasting mode. Not that it is implausible, but history tells us that these types of cold episodes happen...and they used to happen more frequently. The implication that this current outbreak is related to a pattern of increased PV displacement due to GW is over the top. Before the GW cabal jumps on this like a bunch of angry hornets, the above opinion is not intended to express belief or disbelief in the overall state of GW. It is a criticism of the video based on the bolded above. So stand down, I think the vast majority of the world's scientists who consider GW settled science is hardly a "cabal"....kinda like saying there is a "cabal" of historians who believe WW 2 took place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 They forgot to add Boxing Day 2010 to that over 6" list And some of those included were not that widespread....I don't remember any significant snow in 1991 in central NJ; the Jan 82 storm had to be above 6 in NJ; this was the storm where the Air Fl jet crashed into the Potomac. And the late feb 2010 event delivered only 8 inches here; we were too far north for Feb 6 2010 and too far south for the later one. What's interesting is to see the years from 1997-99---no warning events. I rarely remember storms being over 8 inches when I was a kid in the 70's,,,Feb 78 was it. 8 inches was a major storm and 5 closed schools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think the vast majority of the world's scientists who consider GW settled science is hardly a "cabal"....kinda like saying there is a "cabal" of historians who believe WW 2 took place.... Strongly agree. The acceptance of differing opinions is fine if facts are not involved, but the evidence is clear & mounting that climate change -- caused by an overall warming of our planet -- is occurring, and that humans are likely a significant factor in the latest episode of a phenomenon that has happened countless times over the course of our planet's history. If someone cannot comprehend that a civilization that spans the entire planet and uses stored carbon resources in copious amounts in a very brief amount of time is not capable of altering the overall climate. Examples like the urban heat island help to illustrate the disconnect; this effect is observable in every urbanized area across the planet. Literally, every single place with lots of asphalt and concrete; every single one has seen warming relative to surrounding areas, and this is a fact that is undeniably due to human influence. If that is the case -- how can someone not put the dots together regarding everything else? Think about the physical outputs of our industry, and then consider the negative externalities that are invisible to us, that have been spewing out of our factories since the industrial revolution (and only really boomed in the past fifty years). Another observation that is admittedly hard to quantify is the sudden decline of snowfall averages in certain cities after a certain point. This has now happened in Portland, Seattle, Richmond, and Washington, D.C. Each of those cities has seen a rapid decrease in snowfall averages over the past ten years. The line is moving north along the East Coast, and while we may benefit from seemingly enhanced precipitation during major events now, the warmth will eventually win out much more often than not, and NYC will see an abrupt shift in snowfall averages (IMO). Enjoy winters through the 2020s, because afterwards it's going to be generally terrible (with exceptions like 09-10 for DC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I think the vast majority of the world's scientists who consider GW settled science is hardly a "cabal"....kinda like saying there is a "cabal" of historians who believe WW 2 took place.... I was referring to the GW cabal on this website. I wasn't sure if there really was one, although I assumed that if there was some would start to self-identify after reading my post. So, do you have a specific opinion on whether the recent cold outbreak is related to a pattern of increased PV displacement that is due to GW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Strongly agree. The acceptance of differing opinions is fine if facts are not involved, but the evidence is clear & mounting that climate change -- caused by an overall warming of our planet -- is occurring, and that humans are likely a significant factor in the latest episode of a phenomenon that has happened countless times over the course of our planet's history. If someone cannot comprehend that a civilization that spans the entire planet and uses stored carbon resources in copious amounts in a very brief amount of time is not capable of altering the overall climate. Examples like the urban heat island help to illustrate the disconnect; this effect is observable in every urbanized area across the planet. Literally, every single place with lots of asphalt and concrete; every single one has seen warming relative to surrounding areas, and this is a fact that is undeniably due to human influence. If that is the case -- how can someone not put the dots together regarding everything else? Think about the physical outputs of our industry, and then consider the negative externalities that are invisible to us, that have been spewing out of our factories since the industrial revolution (and only really boomed in the past fifty years). Another observation that is admittedly hard to quantify is the sudden decline of snowfall averages in certain cities after a certain point. This has now happened in Portland, Seattle, Richmond, and Washington, D.C. Each of those cities has seen a rapid decrease in snowfall averages over the past ten years. The line is moving north along the East Coast, and while we may benefit from seemingly enhanced precipitation during major events now, the warmth will eventually win out much more often than not, and NYC will see an abrupt shift in snowfall averages (IMO). Enjoy winters through the 2020s, because afterwards it's going to be generally terrible (with exceptions like 09-10 for DC). +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 looks like no big storms on the horizon with just near normal temps the next week or so according to Upton and Mount Holly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 They change their tune all the Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 looks like no big storms on the horizon with just near normal temps the next week or so according to Upton and Mount Holly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/ Quiet week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Quiet week ahead For now but we have to watch the midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 12, 2014 Author Share Posted January 12, 2014 For now but we have to watch the midweek storm. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Blizzard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I was referring to the GW cabal on this website. I wasn't sure if there really was one, although I assumed that if there was some would start to self-identify after reading my post. So, do you have a specific opinion on whether the recent cold outbreak is related to a pattern of increased PV displacement that is due to GW? Yes, I doubt it is directly attributable to GW. Guess I misunderstood who you were referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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