SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Gfs cold and snowy the 23rd-24th followed by ridiculous cold on christmas morning The amount of cold air available is crazy and can't be denied, we will see a day or two of milder temps but cold will prevail, the gfs would even comes us some snow cover for Christmas which is excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 00z EURO implies a major arctic outbreak after the 22nd; insane!!! Have not seen something modeled like this in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The 00z EURO implies a major arctic outbreak after the 22nd; insane!!! Have not seen something modeled like this in quite some time. We are likely going to compete among the winter greats this time. Are we ready to challenge 1977-1978 and 1993-1994.? Sure looks like it. This seems to be an old fashioned classic winter with the excellent pacific for the next few months. If we get -AO and -NAO, with a strato warming the northeast could have coldest and snowiest winter in decades, no joking here. It may stay cold to frigid and snowy straight till April for alot of us. Maybe only be above freezing 10 percent of the time for the next 3 months. t looks like North America's turn for the frigid side of the NP/Siberian cross polar flow. I bet NYC has a record low minimum this winter and sees a -5 to -8 F low . Could NYC area have a 60 inch winter or greater ? to be determined..... Wonder if we go to a chilly raw drizzly mid spring with very chilled NE coast waters ? and to a sudden torrid summer that starts in late May and stays on the hot side for a good part. Do you see any possibility of this being right? What volcano's did I miss ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC already set a record daily snowfall on the 10th...The record snowfalls and snow depth for Dec. 14th are... snowfall.....est. max snow depth...5.8" in 2003..........15" in 19605.5" in 1889............8" in 1917 3.2" in 1922............7" in 19043.2" in 1945............6" in 19022.5" in 1951............6" in 2003 in 2003 NYC had 4-6" of snow that turned to heavy rain and that washed away most of the 6" that fell...1889 is on the list...It had a very mild January and February with little snowfall until March...1951 had a 3.3" slop fest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi I just joined this board because another one that I was on had all the problems you mentioned above and I thought this was higher level discussion but the past three days, this board is almost worse... That being said, there are some great posters on here that I've already learned a lot from.. The "where i78 is" is not something you come on to a forum to learn about, despite it being debated for the past page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi I believe in part you are right, but the discussions that involve model comparison are rather interesting and I believe that's what a forum discussion is for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi But they didnt equivically state 3-5 they said '2-4 or 3-5' so technically speaking if CPK comes in with 1.8 in they would be 'correct &verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi Honestly, we shouldn't even be having this discussion here ... but how realistic do you think it is with a "science" like meteorology to not have differences in opinions and discussion points about different perspectives on the models, model interpretation, and forecasts? I've come to expect differences in opinions and I'm ok with that. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !!Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight.We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold.I am sure many of you agree.Rossi Alot of the members here are snow weenies and love winter like myself. However, some have blinders and either hope for rainy forecasts or hug them and others just hug the whiter/ colder models. Either way it is not too constructive as of now. A few red taggers here and there are contributing vital information even PB GFI who i think is a very intelligent non-met. Earthlight does a good job cleaning these threads up as a good moderator so it will get better today and throughout the season. Back to NAM. It is documented it has its warm bias, too wet and over amped at times. Truth be told probably one of our most inconsistent models of the bunch. Should it be totally dismissed? No it should not. However, as stated previously the GFS/EURO have the right idea in that i think there gauging the CAD more accurately with this fresh and very cold air mass coming from canada. We've seen models under-forecast cold this season thus far and from a glance looks like models are adjusting to this already. The warm nose i think may still end up being a problem no matter how cold the models do get, but i think plain rain even down to the coast should not be an issue, mixing probably but thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thats fine if the debate is from people who are qualified and there are very few on this board. Thats why I keep quiet. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Larry Cosgrove just told me that if a -AO develops in late December along with a -EPO, watch out for an historic arctic outbreak for the country. He is also forecasting a really cold January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Larry Cosgrove just told me that if a -AO develops in late December along with a -EPO, watch out for an historic arctic outbreak for the country. He is also forecasting a really cold January. I believe him. With the MJO aiming towards the bare minimum of Phase 1/2 by the end of the month, we need to watch out for more blocking, more intense arctic outbreaks and higher chances of stronger and more concentrated storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I believe him. With the MJO aiming towards the bare minimum of Phase 1/2 by the end of the month, we need to watch out for more blocking, more intense arctic outbreaks and higher chances of stronger and more concentrated storms. Both the GFS and Euro have an outbreak just before Christmas. The GFS still says we warm up around the 21st with a big rainstorm first but with a ways to go there's no sense focusing on the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I believe him. With the MJO aiming towards the bare minimum of Phase 1/2 by the end of the month, we need to watch out for more blocking, more intense arctic outbreaks and higher chances of stronger and more concentrated storms. Farmer's Almanac FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Latest EPO forecasts keep it negative straight through the next two weeks with values around -200...essentially, this pattern will continue it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thats fine if the debate is from people who are qualified and there are very few on this board. Thats why I keep quiet. Rossi you should use the ignor feature for wishcasters and trolls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not warming up much today.... just 27 degrees currently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 0 possible Tues AM on 12z Euro in the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The analysis and flip flopping and banter in the main weekend thread is unbelievable ............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The analysis and flip flopping and banter in the main weekend thread is unbelievable ............... Crazy talk . The weekend before christmas CNJ and NYC makes a run at 60 , Before Vigorous trough moves through . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Crazy talk . The weekend before christmas CNJ and NYC makes a run at 60 , Before Vigorous trough moves through . as the current pattern reloads to rival christmas week 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 as the current pattern reloads to rival christmas week 1983 Yeh , Ensembles are deeper at 500 mb than the Operational D 10 , the squall line has temp drops of 20 degrees in 6 hrs - and there mayb some light snow on the backside as it gets to the coast , the Mon before XMas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Impressive cold for Dec 12th... no higher than 27 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Impressive cold for Dec 12th... no higher than 27 today. Yep very close to a top 5 record low max (if not for the 30 at midnight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 you should use the ignor feature for wishcasters and trolls... you must have over half the screen names in this forum on ignore - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 you must have over half the screen names in this forum on ignore - lol He cant see that till i quote you. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 i can't believe there are nam and gfs play by plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 i can't believe there are nam and gfs play by plays Are you new here? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Are you new here? Lolit used to be just the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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