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Winter 2013 - 2014 Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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The 00z EURO implies a major arctic outbreak after the 22nd; insane!!! Have not seen something modeled like this in quite some time.

We are likely going to compete among the winter greats this time.  Are we ready to challenge 1977-1978 and 1993-1994.?  Sure looks like it.  This seems to be an old fashioned classic winter with the excellent pacific for the next few months.  If we get -AO and -NAO, with a strato warming the northeast could have coldest and snowiest winter in decades, no joking here.  It may stay cold to frigid and snowy straight till April for alot of us. Maybe only be above freezing 10 percent of the time for the next 3 months. t looks like North America's turn for the frigid side of the NP/Siberian cross polar flow.  I bet NYC has a record low minimum this winter and sees a -5 to -8 F low .  Could NYC area have a 60 inch winter or greater ? to be determined.....  Wonder if we go to a chilly raw drizzly mid spring with very chilled NE coast waters ? and to a sudden torrid summer that starts in late May and stays on the hot side for a good part.  Do you see any possibility of this being right?  What volcano's did I miss ????

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NYC already set a record daily snowfall on the 10th...The record snowfalls and snow depth for Dec. 14th are...

snowfall.....est. max snow depth...
5.8" in 2003..........15" in 1960
5.5" in 1889............8" in 1917

3.2" in 1922............7" in 1904
3.2" in 1945............6" in 1902
2.5" in 1951............6" in 2003

in 2003 NYC had 4-6" of snow that turned to heavy rain and that washed away most of the 6" that fell...1889 is on the list...It had a very mild January and February with little snowfall until March...1951 had a 3.3" slop fest...
 

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !!

Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight.

We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold.

I am sure many of you agree.

Rossi

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi

 

I just joined this board because another one that I was on had all the problems you mentioned above and I thought this was higher level discussion but the past three days, this board is almost worse... That being said, there are some great posters on here that I've already learned a lot from.. The "where i78 is" is not something you come on to a forum to learn about, despite it being debated for the past page...

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi

I believe in part you are right, but the discussions that involve model comparison are rather interesting and I believe that's what a forum discussion is for

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi

But they didnt equivically state 3-5 they said '2-4 or 3-5' so technically speaking if CPK comes in with 1.8 in they would be 'correct  &verified.

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !! Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight. We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold. I am sure many of you agree. Rossi

Honestly, we shouldn't even be having this discussion here ... but how realistic do you think it is with a "science" like meteorology to not have differences in opinions and discussion points about different perspectives on the models, model interpretation, and forecasts? I've come to expect differences in opinions and I'm ok with that. Just my 2 cents.

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OK, I have been on this board way before it was American Weather. The discussions on this board have become unbearable. They range from how much in my area and not what is important !!Why can't we just have Red Taggers analyze the models (If we can get them back) or Earthlight.We watch the posts and some one says 6 inches and aother says 3 inches. Its become redundant and takes all the fun away from watching the winter weather unfold.I am sure many of you agree.Rossi

Alot of the members here are snow weenies and love winter like myself. However, some have blinders and either hope for rainy forecasts or hug them and others just hug the whiter/ colder models. Either way it is not too constructive as of now. A few red taggers here and there are contributing vital information even PB GFI who i think is a very intelligent non-met. Earthlight does a good job cleaning these threads up as a good moderator so it will get better today and throughout the season.

Back to NAM. It is documented it has its warm bias, too wet and over amped at times. Truth be told probably one of our most inconsistent models of the bunch. Should it be totally dismissed? No it should not. However, as stated previously the GFS/EURO have the right idea in that i think there gauging the CAD more accurately with this fresh and very cold air mass coming from canada. We've seen models under-forecast cold this season thus far and from a glance looks like models are adjusting to this already. The warm nose i think may still end up being a problem no matter how cold the models do get, but i think plain rain even down to the coast should not be an issue, mixing probably but thats it.

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Larry Cosgrove just told me that if a -AO develops in late December along with a -EPO, watch out for an historic arctic outbreak for the country. He is also forecasting a really cold January.

I believe him. With the MJO aiming towards the bare minimum of Phase 1/2 by the end of the month, we need to watch out for more blocking, more intense arctic outbreaks and higher chances of stronger and more concentrated storms.

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I believe him. With the MJO aiming towards the bare minimum of Phase 1/2 by the end of the month, we need to watch out for more blocking, more intense arctic outbreaks and higher chances of stronger and more concentrated storms.

Both the GFS and Euro have an outbreak just before Christmas. The GFS still says we warm up around the 21st with a big rainstorm first but with a ways to go there's no sense focusing on the details.

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as the current pattern reloads to rival christmas week 1983

Yeh ,  Ensembles are deeper at 500 mb than the Operational D 10 , the squall line has temp drops of 20

degrees in 6 hrs - and there mayb some light  snow on the backside as it gets to the coast , the Mon before XMas .

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